93L better organized,Otto very soon?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Nov 28, 2004 7:17 am

The key word is trying because this morning the north side is the one with convection and that has to go all the way around to then have Otto.Let's see what happens today and tonight with the shear if it fades a bit or stays put but the window for this to develop into Otto is very very small.

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Nov 28, 2004 8:39 am

If the trend of the convection to be over the low center continues we well may see this being classified later today or tommorow.

Hyperstorm · #3 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Sun Nov 28, 2004 8:50 am

Yeah, the system has developed increased convection overnight and is VERY close to being a subtropical storm. It doesn't have to go completely around it to be classified. As long as some of the convection is on top of the LLC, we could see formation. This is what is happening now.

IMO, Otto should be here within the next 24 hours...

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Nov 28, 2004 11:42 am

I haved noticed from early in the morning that the center for a good part of the day has been under the convection but in some instances it comes out semiexposed.

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Nov 28, 2004 1:19 pm

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
28/1745 UTC 28.6N 45.0W ST2.5/2.5 90 -- Atlantic Ocean

This data this afternoon is an increase in the winds from all the earlier sat estimates from SSD.

Stormsfury · #6 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Nov 28, 2004 1:32 pm

The convulated nature of the whole scheme ... the issue with the previous system impacted it by giving it a new envigorated boost ... and convection is very healthy on the NW side ... while updating my website, I viewed the loop testing things out, and I believe now it has to be upgraded to a subtropical storm, considering it looks VERY similar to ST Nicole a while back ...

If so, it still would fit my outlook back at the end of Sept, no more tropical systems, barring cutoffs becoming subtropical entities ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #7 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Nov 28, 2004 1:55 pm

There is no way that this is not going to be upgraded at 5pm...This looks as good as most tropical storms. But the nhc could be tired from the busy hurricane season we had earlier.

Wnghs2007 · #8 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Sun Nov 28, 2004 1:56 pm

Stormsfury wrote:The convulated nature of the whole scheme ... the issue with the previous system impacted it by giving it a new envigorated boost ... and convection is very healthy on the NW side ... while updating my website, I viewed the loop testing things out, and I believe now it has to be upgraded to a subtropical storm, considering it looks VERY similar to ST Nicole a while back ...

If so, it still would fit my outlook back at the end of Sept, no more tropical systems, barring cutoffs becoming subtropical entities ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I agree with you SF. It looks very good, and your forecasts have been right on so far.

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Nov 28, 2004 2:31 pm

Pressure down to 998 mbs from 1002 meaning that the low is deepening.

#10 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Sun Nov 28, 2004 2:32 pm

Wow! This is the best organized cyclone in the Atlantic since Lisa almost 2 months ago.

rainstorm · #11 Postby **rainstorm** » Sun Nov 28, 2004 2:58 pm

should be named!!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #12 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Nov 28, 2004 3:02 pm

Look at the ball of 80 minus convection...That is a cdo over a well oreganized LLC. This system is moving west-northwestward.

A cold soild Cdo over a well defined LLC. With Banding forming?=Tropical cyclone!!! http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

This makes Tropical storm Matthew in Nicole to shame.

#13 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Sun Nov 28, 2004 4:54 pm

How have they not upgraded it?! This already looks like a tropical storm. This should be Tropical Storm Otto...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #14 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Nov 28, 2004 4:56 pm

I don't understand :eek:

#15 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Nov 28, 2004 5:00 pm

A ship report that may be in the area is what they are looking for.

Derek Ortt · #16 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Nov 28, 2004 5:11 pm

It has not been upgraded because it is not yet tropical, plain and simple. It takes time for enough laten heat release to occur for the system to obtain a warm core. This is NOT an instanteanous process

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #17 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Nov 28, 2004 5:15 pm

I think we can forget Otto it will never develop a warm enough core to be upgraded. Reasons are it is moving northwest in soon over colder waters. I'm going to forget about this system. I don't went to have a heart Attack already had to go to ER once this year.
:eek:

#18 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Nov 28, 2004 5:23 pm

As I said at the first post of this thread the window for 93L to develop into a warm core sub or tropical system is small.Still NHC sees some chances for it so let's see in the next 12-24 hours.

Hyperstorm · #19 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Sun Nov 28, 2004 5:47 pm

Operationally, it has not been upgraded, but I am quite sure that during post-analysis, it would be a subtropical cyclone during this time. The system has enough "tropical" characteristics, to be classified as one. However, this is a slow process and they will classify it when they think it has a good chance of sustaining itself...

#20 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Nov 28, 2004 7:24 pm

28/2345 UTC 29.1N 45.2W ST2.5/2.5 90

Normally those T numbers 2.5 would mean Tropical Storm status but the transition from a cold core low to a warm core one takes time but anyway that low is very deep below 1000 mbs causing very high seas in the area and a gale warning in effect.

93L better organized,Otto very soon?

93L better organized,Otto very soon?

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