Focus of Winter to Remain Ohio Valley Westward thru 12/15

[Wnghs2007]

Any idea what the Northwestern outlook for this Winter is? Specifically Western Washington and Central Oregon? Thanks.

Hmmm. Probally the first half of the winter will be better for yall. The second half looks like the EUS pleasure.

[donsutherland1]

W13,

I believe that at least through December 15 (and perhaps somewhat longer), the Pacific Northwest will see a trough predominate. Therefore, winter opportunities should be available during this period.

For the winter as a whole, unfortunately, I believe one will see a positive PNA become established for the most part and this should lead to a winter with warmer than normal temperatures as a whole.

[Anonymous]

W13,

I believe that at least through December 15 (and perhaps longer), the Pacific Northwest will see a trough predominate. Therefore, winter opportunities should be available during this period.

For the winter as a whole, unfortunately, I believe one will see a positive PNA become established for the most part and this should lead to a winter with warmer than normal temperatures as a whole.

W13, perhaps winter snow opportunities will persist for your part of the US into late December.

With all due respect to Don, I am not trying to undermine you in any way, but I feel bad for W13 and am merely hoping for the best for that poster.

-Jeb

[donsutherland1]

Jeb,

There's no need to be concerned. My current ideas only extend to around 12/15. I'm not yet sure when the dramatic shift in the pattern will occur, but based on past analogs the approximate timeframe would probably fall somwhere in the 12/15-12/25 area.

Right now, given the synoptic setup, ensemble data, SSTAs, I'm confident that the change won't occur much before 12/15. It could occur afterward. However, delayed or not, I believe it will occur and much of the East should see a colder than normal winter by the time the season is finished.

[Wnghs2007]

Jeb,

There's no need to be concerned. My current ideas only extend to around 12/15. I'm not yet sure when the dramatic shift in the pattern will occur, but based on past analogs the approximate timeframe would probably fall somwhere in the 12/15-12/25 area.

Right now, given the synoptic setup, ensemble data, SSTAs, I'm confident that the change won't occur much before 12/15. It could occur afterward. However, delayed or not, I believe it will occur and much of the East should see a colder than normal winter by the time the season is finished.

Yes I agree. And also its good to see on some of the models that by day 4-6 they have The Polar Vortex over the Northwest Pacific right now. Moving and possibly becoming an Aleutian Low, to help raise the SSTA's in the 125-120 Degree West Range. That will take a week or two to do though. and that would be right after 12/15 I supose so. Who know.s