Now or Never

#21 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 8:38 pm

45kts,997 mbs is the latest data of that low that is not a storm yet.

Wnghs2007 · #22 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 9:09 pm

Well This thing is so storm right now. Hopefully they will upgrade at 11 pm. But who knows.

#23 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 9:23 pm

Not at 10 PM EST.Maybe tommorow morning they wake up upgrading it depending on how it looks by then.

Wnghs2007 · #24 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 9:29 pm

cycloneye wrote:Not at 10 PM EST.Maybe tommorow morning they wake up upgrading it depending on how it looks by then.

Oh well. Thats too bad. I was hoping they would see the light by then.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #25 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 9:31 pm

If that is not a tropical storm at 45 knots. Then they can down grade all the storms that where less deserving.

Wnghs2007 · #26 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 9:37 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:If that is not a tropical storm at 45 knots. Then they can down grade all the storms that where less deserving.

Yes I would say the same thing. This thing should already be otto whether STS or TS I dont know but it should be otto.

NHC :roll:

#27 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 10:16 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 300259
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EST MON NOV 29 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINS
LIMITED AT THIS TIME. THE LOW...WHICH IS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR 50
MPH MAINLY NORTH OF THE CENTER...HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MARINE
INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

They will wait for more bursts of thunderstorm activity to form near the center to then upgrade because being a 45kt wind producer already it would be Otto.

Wnghs2007 · #28 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 10:17 pm

cycloneye wrote:ABNT20 KNHC 300259
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EST MON NOV 29 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINS
LIMITED AT THIS TIME. THE LOW...WHICH IS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR 50
MPH MAINLY NORTH OF THE CENTER...HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MARINE
INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

They will wait for more bursts of thunderstorm activity to form near the center to then upgrade because being a 45kt wind producer already it would be Otto.

Yeah I guess so. But it seems like it has enough convection to me. But heck I dont decide.

#29 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 11:18 pm

If this year Hermine, TD 10, Matthew, and Nicole, were named, then we should be talking about 93L Invest, but TS/STS OTTO.

Wnghs2007 · #30 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Mon Nov 29, 2004 11:18 pm

HURAKAN wrote:If this year Hermine, TD 10, Matthew, and Nicole, were named, then we should be talking about 93L Invest, but TS/STS OTTO.

Agreed.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #31 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 1:08 am

The subtropical system that hit Hati in May...That system could of been subtropical. Which killed 3,300 people.

Mid June system over the Gulf had a LLC. Could of been upgraded like td 10 or hermine, Or Grace...In that is not adding that it was in the Gulf a threat to the United states Gulf Coast.

Now I can forgive those because they could or could not cases. But I'm totally sure about this system. This thing has 50 to 55 mph winds. With a warm core...This system was almost a strong tropical storm for crying out load. How about the shiping lanes? How about keeping the record good to look back on?

Because there is no way that this was not at least subtropical. I respect the nhc because they know more then any one on this board. But come on now it was pretty clear this time. The nhc is my first source of information in that is why I hold them to a high standard like I'm.

I prey to god that in post hurricane season they upgrade this like they did to a system a few years ago. It is only right.

Runt over!

#32 Postby **george_r_1961** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 1:30 am

Well I would have upgraded it by now but i think NHC wants to see a more symmetrical convection envelope first. I have seen systems that barely had any type of satellite signature at all that were upgraded to a TS. Not bashing NHC here but I would like to know why 93L isnt Otto yet.

yoda · #33 Postby **yoda** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 6:03 am

We will see Otto at 11 AM most likely per NHC TWO 5:30 AM today.

hurricanefreak1988 · #34 Postby **hurricanefreak1988** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 9:13 am

What's this Matt? Are you changing your mind and saying that we have a storm, after originally saying this thing wouldn't form? Just didn't wanna be wrong, did you. :lol:

Gah, wish it would form later than 11AM, because I'll be at school. I wanted to raise the CO-CHAMPIONS banner when Otto formed, but then again, that should be done at midnight tonight, when the final buzzer sounds.

Website · #35 Postby **Brent** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 9:16 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:What in the $#%$# doe's it need to be upgraded? A eye with 100 mph winds. The nhc should down grade tropical storm Grace with all the rest of the weak storms if they don't upgrade it at 11pm. End of freaking discussion.

I have a nice beach front house for you if you think that for a dollar.

Calm down... :lol:

The NHC knows what they are doing. The big difference here is Grace was actually threatening land. This is not bothering anyone but the fishes.

Website · #36 Postby **Brent** » Tue Nov 30, 2004 9:17 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This thing has 50 to 55 mph winds. With a warm core...This system was almost a strong tropical storm for crying out load. How about the shiping lanes? How about keeping the record good to look back on?

Hold it... how do you "know" and why does the NHC not?

:roll:

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