Winter Forecast for North Texas

[aggiecutter]

Just checked the ensembles this morning, and they lock this pattern in for atleast the next 2 weeks. The encouraging thing is the runs have been pretty consistent for the past week.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... times.html

[aggiecutter]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
905 PM CST THU NOV 25 2004

.910 PM PUBLIC DISCUSSION...
WE WILL LOWER TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT...MAINLY IN THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE
FORECASTED LOW. MAY ALSO TWEAK THE WINDS A BIT.

WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...BUT THE EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS AGREE
THAT A COLD AIR MASS WILL BE APPROACHING NORTH TEXAS BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THE FRONT COULD 1) MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS SOONER THAN IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED (TUESDAY) AND 2) BE ACCOMPANIED BY AIR THAT IS
CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WE WILL TWEAK
TONIGHT'S ZONES IN THE UPDATE...COOLING LOWS IN THE NORTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER 40S. WE WILL ALSO LOWER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT
TUESDAY...BUT ONLY MODESTLY SO AT THIS TIME.

IF CONTINUITY HOLDS WITH TONIGHT'S AND FRIDAY MORNING'S MODELS
RUNS...IT IS LIKELY THAT FORECASTED TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BE LOWERED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 26

[gboudx]

snipped:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
515 AM CST SAT NOV 27 2004

.... THE 00Z GFS INDICATES THAT THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE AND THICKNESS VALUES MAY GET INTERESTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
WE COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT
CHANCES OF SNOW REMAIN TOO LOW ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

[gboudx]

Summarized:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
322 PM CST SAT NOV 27 2004

...RAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE ENDING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING TOWARD FREEZING IN THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE REACHING
THAT MARK. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
535 AM CST MON NOV 29 2004


.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS SURGING SOUTH THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE AND NW OK AND
IS ABOUT TO BE ALONG A OKC-SPS-MAF LINE. THIS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN MODEL PROGS...BUT IS NOT AN UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE FOR THIS TYPE OF
SETUP. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NW
BEFORE STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURS...BUT SOME LOW 70S WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE. MODELS ARE TYING OUR HANDS WITH HIGH POPS
TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST...BUT BELIEVE IT WILL MAINLY BE A
MORNING LIGHT RAIN EVENT OVER THE NW HALF. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS THE SE WHERE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY EXISTS.

TONIGHT GETS INTERESTING. COLD ADVECTION WILL LOWER TEMPS MOST
NOTICEABLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY FREEZING
TEMPS IN THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM
ADVECTION OCCURRING AROUND 700 MB. HAVE SIDED WITH THE ETA PROGS AS
GFS APPEARS TO DEEPEN THE COLD LAYER TOO MUCH AND PRODUCES LESS
OVERRUNNING RAIN AS A RESULT (BUT MORE FROZEN PRECIP). ACROSS THE
EXTREME NW CWA...OR NW OF A BOWIE TO EASTLAND LINE...ETA MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESS ANALYSIS SUGGEST RAIN MIXING WITH
SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW EARLY TUE MORNING
BEFORE PRECIP SHUTS OFF. SINCE THE PRECIPITATING LAYER SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH ABOUT 7 AM TUE EXPECT MAINLY RAIN BUT FROZEN
PRECIP TYPES NEED TO BE FORECAST DUE TO DEEP THE SUB FREEZING LAYER
EXPECTED. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD STAY
ABOVE 32 AND GROUND TEMPS ARE EVEN WARMER. EXPECT JUST A COLD RAIN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS.

RAINS WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH
CLOUD COVER ERODING W TO E BY LATE AFTERNOON. EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS TUE NIGHT AND THIS WILL LIKELY SET THE
STAGE FOR A FREEZE FOR ALL BUT THE SE CWA. COOL AND DRY WX IS
EXPECTED WED-SAT WITH LOW TEMPS POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH FREEZING
AGAIN. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED SAT NIGHT WITH MORE CLOUDS AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. NOT TOO CONFIDENT ON EXACT TIMING IN THE RAPID
UPPER FLOW SO JUST SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.

PUBLIC...
WILL UPDATE ZONES SOON TO CHANGE TO AFTERNOON WORDING...HAVE FALLING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND 50S BEHIND THE FRONT...AND MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS. ALSO ADJUSTED WEDNESDAY MIN TEMPS DOWN A
LITTLE. SHOULD BE FIRST FREEZE OF SEASON FOR SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
145 PM CST MON NOV 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER
BEHIND THE FRONT THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA LATE TONIGHT...THUS THE
HIGH POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN. THICKNESS VALUES SUPORT RAIN BECOMING
MIXED WITH SLEET OR SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING AND AT THE MOST ONLY
A FEW ONE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WILL OCCUR IN THIS REGION AFTER IT
BEGINS A WINTRY MIX. THEREFORE NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. SKIES
WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT...I EXPECT A FREEZE OVER ALL OF
CWA WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM 27 IN THE NORTH TO 32 IN THE SOUTHEAST.
FOR THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF CWA THIS WILL BE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE
SEASON. WEATHER LOOKS COOL AND DRY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

[Wnghs2007]

Lord Yall are having a unbelieveable winter wx outbreak right now around Amarilo

[CaptinCrunch]

.DISCUSSION...
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE
NORTH TEXAS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. EXPECT LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN OVER ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING AS UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS HAVE BEEN RECEIVING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW OR SLEET THIS MORNING AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE WARM LAYER WILL REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING SO ACCUMULATIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. MID LEVEL INSTABILITIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES WILL EVEN ALLOW SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. ALL
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION
BEGINS.

SKIES WILL ALSO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS
EVENING AND ALLOW ALREADY COOL TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING. WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

Today: Rain and sleet likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly sunny, with a high around 45. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 15 and 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 29. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph becoming southwest.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
359 AM CST TUE NOV 30 2004


...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH TEXAS HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS FOR TONIGHT. COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
BECOME LIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NORTH TEXAS...WITH LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF.

WHILE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED A
FEW FREEZING TEMPERATURES...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OFFER A HARD FREEZE
NORTH OF A LINE FROM PARIS...TO FORT WORTH...TO LAMPASAS. FURTHER
SOUTHEAST...THE TEMPERATURE SHOULD NOT STAY AT FREEZING NEAR AS
LONG...BUT CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN FOR TENDER VEGETATION AND OUTDOOR
CROPS.

[CaptinCrunch]

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF N TEXAS TODAY AND
THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTH WINDS TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION. THE WARM UP WILL BE TEMPERED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD ARRIVE THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT
WILL BE DRY AS THE MOISTURE WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO RETURN FROM
THE GULF. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL LINGER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...BEFORE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THEN
THUNDERSTORMS TO N TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.


The first non-offical freeze (32-30) was recorded Nov. 23 in the northwestern counties of Northcentral Texas. Nov. 25 saw a freeze (30-32) for the D/FW area, however at D/FW airport the offical temp only reached 34 degrees.

The first Offical Freeze recorded at D/FW Airport was on December 1, 2004 (30 degrees) how ever many location in and around D/FW recorded temps in the mid to upper 20's.
It was 26 at my home in Southern Tarrent Co.

[CaptinCrunch]

PACIFIC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING VERY SLOWLY ACROSS NWRN TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 09Z...THE BOUNDARY STRETCHED ROUGHLY FROM
BETWEEN CHILDRESS AND WICHITA FALLS...TO NEAR MIDLAND. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND SPREAD THROUGH ALL OF NORTH TEXAS BY
THIS EVENING. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE SO FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH DRY. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO N TEXAS...MAINLY
THE SRN SECTIONS...ON SATURDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A SERIES OF H5 SHORT WAVES TO BRING CHANCES OF
SHRA/TSRA TO N TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
CHILLY COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CST FRI DEC 3 2004

.DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES TO STREAM
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF TEXAS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
WEST COAST TROUGH. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT AS WEAK VORT MAX TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
REGION. WILL KEEP POPS LOW DUE TO VERY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL ACTUALLY GET A
BRIEF REINFORCEMENT OF DRY AIR AS A SURFACE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...SLIDES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP
OVERNIGHT LOWS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS COOL INTO THE MID 30S. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY AS
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE. BEST LIFT AND
INSTABILITY WILL ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...BRINGING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE
RAIN. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AS A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP
SOME LOW POPS IN THE EAST MONDAY MORNING.

WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH...WHICH
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

[CaptinCrunch]

It's coming and there will be nothing to stop it, but the GOM. The big 2 (models) all show the same artic intrusion into the Southern Plains, Southeast and Northeast between the 13th and 22nd. If it was just 1 or 2 models it would be hard to have faith but when each model starts to look like the next with in the same time frame one would believe that the weather pattern is about to change.

and I will be the first to say this (THIS WILL NOT BE A SHORT TIME CHANGE, BUT RATHER A LONG TERM PATTERN OVER A 30 DAY PERIOD.)

Here is a 9 Panel MRF 500mb Hght/SL Pres Plot forecast map, notice the punch of ARTIC air in to TX on different day's with the first on day 4 Dec 11th and the second more powerful artic front on day 9 Dec 16th and day 10 Dec 17th with high readings in the lower 20's.

[Portastorm]

So Captain, you're in? You've bought your tickets for the Polar Express?
Sounds like it.

I think I would feel more comfortable after another day or two or similar model scenarios from both the GFS and Euro before I go out and by firewood.

But between the modeling, Bastardi on Accuweather, and what some others are saying ... perhaps you're right!

[CaptinCrunch]

It's not just the GFS that is calling for this... the Euro and the GFS almost look exact on it's runs... With the exception of the GFS making the bliazzard of the century happen in the Pacific NW (That will not happen by the way). The GFS is extreme which I said before... But some things need to be kept in mind here.

There is a bigger picture here, the GFS couldn't see what was going to happen this week because this model is notorious for it's inacuracy during transitional patterns, which we are currently in... but from what I see It's runs over the past two days it's pretty darn conisitent (for temperatures) for where we are going to end up... Because I believe the transition is done... the changes as I said before startred in the west Pacific and the recurving typhoon last week set all of this in motion... and the teleconections that are developing around the world will have a huge effect in the upper air pattern...about the polar vortex... don't be surprised to see it reach the Great Lakes and have it's fun there for a while

I just want to make clear that I'm not saying every detail the GFS and the Euro are forecasting will come to pass... but it's showing where the trend is headed... The models are getting a better hold of what is really going on here.

[gboudx]

CC, how much longer do you think we'll have highs in the 60's here in the Metroplex? The NWS has it into the weekend.

[CaptinCrunch]

CC, how much longer do you think we'll have highs in the 60's here in the Metroplex? The NWS has it into the weekend.

Till late Sunday when the cold front comes thru.

[Portastorm]

This snippet from today's Climate Prediction Center forecast discussion for the 8-14 day forecast:

THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BY ABOUT 30 METERS...WHICH WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TAP INTO SOME ARCTIC AIR BUILDING OVER WESTERN CANADA AND DELIVER IT INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOWER 48 STATES IN THE WEEK OR SO PRIOR TO CHRISTMAS.

... all aboard!!!!

[CaptinCrunch]

This will be a 1, 2 punch for just about everyone as the polor vortex Bust North America square in the mouth with some VERY COLD Artic air for Christmas.

[vbhoutex]

Haven't done a ton of research on this one, but I have to agree that if the models continue to hold on to this-GET THE WOOOLIES OUT all the way to the Gulf Coast!!!! there has been much more consistency than normal to me in the last few days of runs as far as this "outbreak" is concerned and like CC says, it isn't just two models. As always with the weather, time will tell, but if this pattern change doesn't happen and slap the whole Eastern half of the US with an Arctic/Polar Express, I will be surprised.

[gboudx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
315 PM CST TUE DEC 7 2004

.DISCUSSION...
0-5 WAVE 500MB FORECAST EXPLAINS A LOT FOR NORTH TEXAS...POSITIVE
ANOMALITIES BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WEST COAST WITH
NEGATIVE ANOMALITIES OVER THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY.

A SERIES OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL POP OVER THE DEVELOPING
WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE COUNTRY DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE... AND
GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FOR NORTH TEXAS.

NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SE 1/3 DUE TO
BRIEF ISENTROPIC RETURN FLOW THATS SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC COLD FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING... AND ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING WITH THESE FRONTS... THUS THEY SHOULD ARRIVE DRY. THESE AIR
MASSES WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN... THUS NO SIGNIFICANT COLD WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.