Bird flu could be more deadly than the SARS virus

[CaptinCrunch]

WHO issues bird flu warning

30 Nov 2004

Bird flu could be more deadly than the SARS virus, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).

The WHO is warning that the H5N1 flu strain could infect up to 30 per cent of the world's population, possibly killing millions of people within weeks.

"The most conservative estimate is that seven to ten million people would die, but the maximum range will be more - 50 million or even in the worst case 100 million people," said WHO director for the Western Pacific Shigeru Omi.

Bird flu this year has killed 32 people in Thailand and Vietnam, and millions of chickens across Asia.

Officials are warning that vaccination programmes are unlikely to prevent further widespread outbreaks because each vaccine needs to be tailored to the specific flu strain - meaning a delay of around six months before vaccines are widely available.

The WHO hopes to encourage governments to adopt a vaccine-less contingency plan, including quarantine and increasing antiviral drug supplies.

HONG KONG - The bird flu virus is far more lethal than the SARS virus that struck Asia last year and could unleash a pandemic that could kill as many as 50 million people, a World Health Organization official said Monday.

A WHO estimate last week that H5N1 could infect up to 30 percent of the world’s population and kill between two and seven million people was a conservative estimate, said Shigeru Omi, regional director of WHO’s Western Pacific Regional Office.

“It will be incomparable to SARS,” he said, referring to the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome epidemic that killed 800 people around the world in 2003.

While SARS had a mortality rate of around 15 percent, the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu kills up to a third of the people it infects. H5N1 has proven to be versatile and is now able to latch itself onto more hosts, Omi said.

The virus is currently unable to leap from human to human, and as a result, cannot spread quickly through the population. However, scientists are worried that it may only be a matter of time before the virus mutates into a form that can spread between people.

“It has gone through huge genetic changes and become more pathogenic. It has affected not only birds, but cats, pigs and tigers ... ducks are now playing a more important role,” Omi said.

The virus has killed 32 people in Thailand and Vietnam this year and millions of chickens, ducks and other birds have been culled across Asia.

[alicia-w]

how do they go from 32 people dying this year to millions? i dont understand.

[Wnghs2007]

HOLLY CRAP!!!!!! OMG this is serious and terrible

[hurricanedude]

HMMMMMM.......dude dont wanna die

[Wnghs2007]

HMMMMMM.......dude dont wanna die

Neither do I. Check please.

[Persepone]

how do they go from 32 people dying this year to millions? i dont understand. (Alicia)

While SARS had a mortality rate of around 15 percent, the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu kills up to a third of the people it infects. H5N1 has proven to be versatile and is now able to latch itself onto more hosts, Omi said.

The virus is currently unable to leap from human to human, and as a result, cannot spread quickly through the population. However, scientists are worried that it may only be a matter of time before the virus mutates into a form that can spread between people.

I think they are saying that right now you have to catch it from handling an infected bird--but that once the virus mutates and can spread from human to human, it will be very lethal.

We don't think of flu as a "killer" but it killed an incredible number of people in the US in 1918 outbreak. In 1958 flu killed a lot of people in Europe. And every year it does kill people. While many of those it kills are the elderly and people with other serious health issues, it does kill "normal, healthy people." A few years back, a co-workers child died of the flu! This was a child with no other health problems.

I think they just don't publicize the numbers on how many people die of the flu because the numbers are probably pretty scary even for "normal" flu.

[Wnghs2007]

how do they go from 32 people dying this year to millions? i dont understand. (Alicia)

While SARS had a mortality rate of around 15 percent, the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu kills up to a third of the people it infects. H5N1 has proven to be versatile and is now able to latch itself onto more hosts, Omi said.

The virus is currently unable to leap from human to human, and as a result, cannot spread quickly through the population. However, scientists are worried that it may only be a matter of time before the virus mutates into a form that can spread between people.

I think they are saying that right now you have to catch it from handling an infected bird--but that once the virus mutates and can spread from human to human, it will be very lethal.

We don't think of flu as a "killer" but it killed an incredible number of people in the US in 1918 outbreak. In 1958 flu killed a lot of people in Europe. And every year it does kill people. While many of those it kills are the elderly and people with other serious health issues, it does kill "normal, healthy people." A few years back, a co-workers child died of the flu! This was a child with no other health problems.

I think they just don't publicize the numbers on how many people die of the flu because the numbers are probably pretty scary even for "normal" flu.

Can this virus be curred? Is it just like the "normal" flu and can be cured by a flu shot. Or is there no cure?