What will Dr Grays first 2005 forecast numbers be like?

[cycloneye]

In his first outlook for 2005 I think he will say another active season with 13/7/3.But as we know he finetunes the numbers in his april outlook,in the preseason outlook at late may and completes his forecast for 2005 in august.

What do you think Dr Gray will do in his december 2005 outlook.

[Wnghs2007]

I think 14/8/2 for the year. But heck I dont know.

[Hurricanehink]

2 major hurricanes? After this year? Maybe another major or 2.

[Wnghs2007]

2 major hurricanes? After this year? Maybe another major or 2.

LOL. I know, thats maybe a more of a hope forecast because of the East QBO. Maybe not allowing as many long track hurricanes. But heck I dont know. Very Ameture.

[MGC]

Assuming this El Nino is weak and goes away by the start on next season and with the Atlantic still in a warm phase, I'd speculate and say another above average hurricane season.......MGC

[HURAKAN]

I always consider Dr. Gray's December Forecast as a preliminary overview of what the next Hurricane Season may have in its entrails, but I don't take it very seriously. The April forecast I take it more seriously. I would say, and this is my "PRELIMINARY FORECAST," 15 TS, 8 H, 4 MH.

[Wnghs2007]

I always consider Dr. Gray's December Forecast as a preliminary overview of what the next Hurricane Season may have in its entrails, but I don't take it very seriously. The April forecast I take it more seriously. I would say, and this is my "PRELIMINARY FORECAST," 15 TS, 8 H, 4 MH.

Yeah that sounds pretty reasonable.

[Scorpion]

I would say 13 TS, 8 H, 4 MH with 3 hitting land. Hopefully we won't have only a few majors because majors are fun to track. Face it theres always a mystical thing about majors and tracking them. Hopefully an active season.

[Wnghs2007]

I would say 13 TS, 8 H, 4 MH with 3 hitting land. Hopefully we won't have only a few majors because majors are fun to track. Face it theres always a mystical thing about majors and tracking them. Hopefully an active season.

Oh please no. No more hitting land that was enough this year. Lets have another year like the one a few years ago were nothing hit land. Just as a reprieve.

[Scorpion]

But seasons like 2000 and 2001 are so boring!

[Wnghs2007]

But seasons like 2000 and 2001 are so boring!

Yeah. But atleast there was not a lot of damage.

[Stormsfury]

I think Gray will lean more towards 40-50% of the TC's becoming hurricanes ... due to an expected QBO E year, and fairly neutral conditions being progged ... as least, speaking from the last 10 years in a very active tropical cyclone cycle in the N ATL, has produced roughly 13-15 storms, but only 6-7 hurricanes ... still ongoing research and I expect to have my prelim 2005 numbers sometime by mid-December. Otto has somewhat slowed this progress ...

SF

[Wnghs2007]

I think Gray will lean more towards 40-50% of the TC's becoming hurricanes ... due to an expected QBO E year, and fairly neutral conditions being progged ... as least, speaking from the last 10 years in a very active tropical cyclone cycle in the N ATL, has produced roughly 13-15 storms, but only 6-7 hurricanes ... still ongoing research and I expect to have my prelim 2005 numbers sometime by mid-December. Otto has somewhat slowed this progress ...

SF

Thanks for the reasearch and post SF.