Otto is crawling

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cycloneye
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Otto is crawling

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 30, 2004 7:50 pm


TROPICAL STORM OTTO (AL162004) ON 20041201 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
041201 0000 041201 1200 041202 0000 041202 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.6N 50.9W 31.0N 50.2W 29.6N 49.0W 28.6N 47.4W
BAMM 31.6N 50.9W 31.3N 50.3W 30.1N 49.6W 28.8N 49.2W
A98E 31.6N 50.9W 30.8N 50.2W 29.9N 49.8W 28.7N 47.8W
LBAR 31.6N 50.9W 31.9N 50.1W 31.4N 49.0W 31.1N 47.5W
SHIP 40KTS 37KTS 35KTS 30KTS
DSHP 40KTS 37KTS 35KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
041203 0000 041204 0000 041205 0000 041206 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.1N 45.4W 28.0N 41.8W 26.9N 38.9W 22.7N 38.4W
BAMM 27.6N 48.7W 25.2N 47.1W 22.1N 45.6W 18.7N 48.1W
A98E 27.9N 46.4W 26.7N 43.7W 26.0N 41.9W 24.3N 41.0W
LBAR 30.5N 45.9W 29.6N 42.1W 29.1N 36.7W 29.9N 34.6W
SHIP 26KTS 15KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 26KTS 15KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.6N LONCUR = 50.9W DIRCUR = 135DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 31.3N LONM12 = 51.0W DIRM12 = 332DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 30.7N LONM24 = 49.7W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 350NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 150NM

At this 00:00 UTC model run moving barely at 2 kts.Weak steering currents in that area is keeping Otto almost in the same place in a drift movement.Soon enough the shear from the west will reach the storm starting the weakening phase but until it gets there the storm will move slowly and hang on as a weak to moderate storm as water temps are too cool 23C for a more stronger system.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#2 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Nov 30, 2004 7:53 pm

Almost all the hurricane models with some of the Globals show the system going east or even east-southeast. Which would move the system over warmer waters.
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Re: Otto is crawling

#3 Postby Wnghs2007 » Tue Nov 30, 2004 7:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:
TROPICAL STORM OTTO (AL162004) ON 20041201 0000
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
041201 0000 041201 1200 041202 0000 041202 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.6N 50.9W 31.0N 50.2W 29.6N 49.0W 28.6N 47.4W
BAMM 31.6N 50.9W 31.3N 50.3W 30.1N 49.6W 28.8N 49.2W
A98E 31.6N 50.9W 30.8N 50.2W 29.9N 49.8W 28.7N 47.8W
LBAR 31.6N 50.9W 31.9N 50.1W 31.4N 49.0W 31.1N 47.5W
SHIP 40KTS 37KTS 35KTS 30KTS
DSHP 40KTS 37KTS 35KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
041203 0000 041204 0000 041205 0000 041206 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.1N 45.4W 28.0N 41.8W 26.9N 38.9W 22.7N 38.4W
BAMM 27.6N 48.7W 25.2N 47.1W 22.1N 45.6W 18.7N 48.1W
A98E 27.9N 46.4W 26.7N 43.7W 26.0N 41.9W 24.3N 41.0W
LBAR 30.5N 45.9W 29.6N 42.1W 29.1N 36.7W 29.9N 34.6W
SHIP 26KTS 15KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 26KTS 15KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.6N LONCUR = 50.9W DIRCUR = 135DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 31.3N LONM12 = 51.0W DIRM12 = 332DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 30.7N LONM24 = 49.7W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 350NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 150NM



At this 00:00 UTC model run moving barely at 2 kts.Weak steering currents in that area is keeping Otto almost in the same place in a drift movement.Soon enough the shear from the west will reach the storm starting the weakening phase but until it gets there the storm will move slowly and hang on as a weak to moderate storm as water temps are too cool 23C for a more stronger system.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Thanks for the update Luis :D
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#4 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Nov 30, 2004 8:17 pm

It looks to be moving slowly to the east-southeast.
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#5 Postby Wnghs2007 » Tue Nov 30, 2004 8:38 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It looks to be moving slowly to the east-southeast.


Interesting I wonder if this has anything to do with it possibly heading towards warmer waters.
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#6 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Nov 30, 2004 8:40 pm

Remember a storm named Kyle of 2002? :grrr:
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#7 Postby Wnghs2007 » Tue Nov 30, 2004 8:41 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Remember a storm named Kyle of 2002? :grrr:


LOL. Yes I do.
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Nov 30, 2004 8:43 pm

KYLE, "THE WONDERING CYCLONE."
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#9 Postby tronbunny » Tue Nov 30, 2004 8:44 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Remember a storm named Kyle of 2002? :grrr:


Nope...too lazy to go look (burnout).
Would you care to give us a synopsis?

Man this is funny....
Otto is almost like a curtain call.

:P
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#10 Postby Wnghs2007 » Tue Nov 30, 2004 8:46 pm

HURAKAN wrote:KYLE, "THE WONDERING CYCLONE."


Guess he had Alztehimers. LOL
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#11 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Nov 30, 2004 8:46 pm

It was like one of the longest living storms in history. It made it to the east coast.

Image
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#12 Postby Wnghs2007 » Tue Nov 30, 2004 8:47 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It was like one of the longest living storms in history. It made it to the east coast.

Image


well check that. I dont want a Kyle. Poor Florida needs not to think of a storm no more.
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#13 Postby tronbunny » Tue Nov 30, 2004 8:48 pm

Thanks for the graphic.
Too bad it doesn't make a nice analog here, though.
Kyle was a september storm and had more opportunity to find warm water.
Otto is just the tropics closing curtain call, and a lame one at that (yipee!)

Ok, so I lied... here's the link for those of us too worn out from this season to search.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2002kyle.shtml
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#14 Postby Wnghs2007 » Tue Nov 30, 2004 9:04 pm

tronbunny wrote:Thanks for the graphic.
Too bad it doesn't make a nice analog here, though.
Kyle was a september storm and had more opportunity to find warm water.
Otto is just the tropics closing curtain call, and a lame one at that (yipee!)

Ok, so I lied... here's the link for those of us too worn out from this season to search.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2002kyle.shtml


Well its a good way to end the season I feel.
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#15 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Nov 30, 2004 9:13 pm

well check that. I dont want a Kyle. Poor Florida needs not to think of a storm no more.


Florida practically received nothing from Kyle ... all of the associated convection was north and east of the center ... to be quite frank, I've owned hair dryers that blew faster than Kyle's winds ...

Otto has no chance in hades to make it this far over ...
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#16 Postby Guest » Tue Nov 30, 2004 9:16 pm

we don't want another kyle. in a way, i guess that this years jeanne was like kyle, in the fact that no-one knew where it would go and it just... lingered for a while. COME ON PAULA! (which we should've had.... except for IVAN THE SECOND!)
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#17 Postby Wnghs2007 » Tue Nov 30, 2004 9:18 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
well check that. I dont want a Kyle. Poor Florida needs not to think of a storm no more.


Florida practically received nothing from Kyle ... all of the associated convection was north and east of the center ... to be quite frank, I've owned hair dryers that blew faster than Kyle's winds ...

Otto has no chance in hades to make it this far over ...



LOL. I know Otto is not heading there, but I was stating I would not want it to if the convection were strong.
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