Dr. William Gray 2005 Forecast=11/6/3

[HURAKAN]

2005 Forecast:

11 TS
6 H
3 MH


For a deeper information visit:
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... 4/dec2004/

[yoda]

Thanks Hurakan. That seems a little low in my view, but there is a lot of time to change.

[HURAKAN]

Thanks Hurakan. That seems a little low in my view, but there is a lot of time to change.

You Welcome, and 100% in agreement.

[tronbunny]

Hmmmmmm 50:50 chances for Florida landfall.
I would've felt comfortable saying THAT.
Oh well.
I'll wait until april.

[Anonymous]

We foresee a slightly above-average hurricane season for the Atlantic basin in 2005. Also, an above-average probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is anticipated. We do not, however, expect anything close to the U.S. landfalling hurricane activity of 2004.

Boring
Still plenty of time for this to change though.

[cycloneye]

For me the april update is the most important one as he will have much more data to analize by then than the December one but I agree and in fact almost is with my preliminary forecast on a less active season than the 2004 one in terms of less major canes and less activity in general but above the average of 9.6 named storms.

[donsutherland1]

HURAKAN,

At this point in time, I strongly agree with Dr. Gray's preliminary ideas. Given my early assumptions, my ideas would be extremely close.

General Assumptions:
• MEI < +0.50 (El Niño is gone and at least neutral conditions prevail during the hurricane season)
• QBO averages < -6 for the hurricane season (this is highly likely if the QBO switches to negative by February/March)

There were 15 seasons that met such criteria. The averages for those seasons:

• Named Storms: 11.1
• Hurricanes: 6.3
• Major Hurricanes: 2.6

Rounding brings these figures to Dr. Gray's totals!

Refined Assumptions:
• Same as above with two limitations: QBO would not average -20 or below; MEI would not average -1.00 or below

There were 10 seasons that met such criteria. The averages for those seasons:

• Named Storms: 10.6
• Hurricanes: 6.2
• Major Hurricanes: 2.4 (note: other indices seem somewhat more bullish on this matter but some of them are more difficult for me to reasonably predict so far in advance)

FWIW, only 4 of those 10 seasons saw a major hurricane make U.S. landfall. Consequently, from this vantage point, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall seems signficantly lower than what was suggested by the 2004 season's analogs (which correctly pointed to a high probability of one or more such storms making U.S. landfall).

Therefore, at this point in time, my initial ideas for the 2005 hurricane season would be 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Needless to say, it is too soon to place much confidence in such ideas. Later data will be needed to develop strong analogs for the 2005 season.

[Josephine96]

Time to start playing number cruncher and come up with some preliminary numbers lol

[Andrew92]

We foresee a slightly above-average hurricane season for the Atlantic basin in 2005. Also, an above-average probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is anticipated. We do not, however, expect anything close to the U.S. landfalling hurricane activity of 2004.

Boring
Still plenty of time for this to change though.

Yeah, it may be boring. But I'll take a "boring" hurricane season over a major-hurricane-landfall-active hurricane season like this year has been. If you only like the "more interesting" season when major hurricanes hit the United States, kill hundreds of people (or in the case of Haiti, thousands) and cause over $40 billion in damage, then how about you see if you can pay for all of that damage. Do you have $40 billion?

God bless Florida, and may they not get hit by any hurricanes next year.

Lastly, my numbers for 2005 are 13/7/3.

-Andrew92

[Scorpion]

Just one major south of Palm Beach and I guarantee you the season will not be boring by any means.

[cycloneye]

Just one major south of Palm Beach and I guarantee you the season will not be boring by any means.

I dont understand why do you want a major cane making landfall near your area?

[wxman57]

Hmmmmmm 50:50 chances for Florida landfall.
I would've felt comfortable saying THAT.
Oh well.
I'll wait until april.

I don't see a 50-50 chance for a Florida landfall. Is there a part of Dr. Gray's forecast where he issues state-by state forecasts? I do see a Florida to Maine forecast of a 57% chance for a TS or Cat 1/2 hurricane hit, and a 49% chance of a Cat 3-5 hit from Florida to Maine, but nothing that just mentions Florida.

Florida plus East Coast (5-11) 57% (51) 57% (45) 49% (31) 79% (62) 91% (81)

That said, I do think that Florida will be under the gun again in 2005. Most likely not as many as this year, but the steering patterns may be similar in 2005. And this time the "Frances", "Jeanne", or "Ivan" may not be in a weakening phase at landfall. Only Charley wasn't weakening at landfall, and it's field was quite tiny. However, Charley's tiny area of Cat 3-4 winds produced $14 billion in damage. Just goes to show you that when winds top 100 mph that structural failure of houses/buildings can result in much more dollar damage. Neither Jeanne or Frances produced widespread 100+ mph winds.

[Scorpion]

I mean that most people think of boring seasons as few major hurricanes. Example is 1992. That season is a season that will go into the historybooks. So if 2005 is a "boring season" it wouldnt be if a major hit south of Palm Beach County(Floridas most populated and developed area) because of the amount of damage.

[ohiostorm]

Lets hope we dont have as many landfalling storms. FLA cant handle anymore!

[snowflake]

2005 Forecast:

11 TS
6 H
3 MH


For a deeper information visit:
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... 4/dec2004/

I saw that on The Weather Channel this morning.

[Brent]

Just one major south of Palm Beach and I guarantee you the season will not be boring by any means.

I dont understand why do you want a major cane making landfall near your area?

I don't either. Frances and Jeanne hit right where he lives IN THE EXACT SAME SPOT.

[CharleySurvivor]

I feel the same has many of you.... a minimum 2005 hurricane season, nothing major like we had in 2004.

We are still working at geting back to normal and we have a long way to go.

[Scorpion]

Yea but a minimal season is a boring season

[HURAKAN]

Yea but a minimal season is a boring season

There is nothing better than a hyperactive season with undestructive effects. Of course, it will be almost a miracle!!!

[HurricaneBill]

Yea but a minimal season is a boring season

Look in other basins.