Pattern change

aggiecutter · #1 Postby **aggiecutter** » Fri Dec 03, 2004 9:27 am

is on the way...

Day 7 EURO...
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

Day 10 EURO...
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

#2 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Fri Dec 03, 2004 9:38 am

AAck - you beat me by 10 minutes. This is the 3rd consecutive run that shows a MAJOR trough in the eastern US. This will be thanks to the recurvature of Nanmadol - which, by the way, looks to SLAM into AK or Canada next week as a very deep storm. It'll set off the chain of events that should keep the trough deep and in the east for much of December. Eastern Seaboard snow lovers (Jeb specifically) BE READY!

aggiecutter · #3 Postby **aggiecutter** » Fri Dec 03, 2004 10:12 am

Here's an explanation from Tom Skilling on next weeks events.

http://wgntv.trb.com/news/weather/weblog/wgnweather/

Anonymous · #4 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Dec 03, 2004 10:52 am

Yup I believe things are looking up, especially after the 10th in the East.

#5 Postby **Lowpressure** » Fri Dec 03, 2004 12:28 pm

Nice post AGGIECUTTER

#6 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Dec 03, 2004 1:55 pm

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this kind of pattern change looks blase to those of us in Texas. The persistant trough will be east of the Mississippi with the strong ridge centered over the Rockies, right?

I guess it would be exciting for those of you in the East.

aggiecutter · #7 Postby **aggiecutter** » Fri Dec 03, 2004 3:59 pm

Storm, if that trough persist long enough, there's good possibility that a vortex will form in the great lakes region. Assuming that indeed does happen, that would funnel arctic everywhere east of the Rockies. It's a situation where the cold air just overwhelms. Thats what happened in December of 83.

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Dec 03, 2004 4:31 pm

We'll see. Just don't post that 384 hr gfs lol.

-Jeb

#9 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Fri Dec 03, 2004 4:37 pm

Jeb, can I post my 768 hr GFS :lol:

Lots of COLD and SNOW for Everyone East of the Rockies!!!! :lol:

#10 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Dec 03, 2004 5:14 pm

Thanks Aggiecutter!

Should that all verify, it would make a MOST INTERESTING weather situation for many of us.

Geez, December 83 was awfully cold down here in Texas as you probably know.

#11 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Dec 03, 2004 5:21 pm

aggiecutter wrote:Storm, if that trough persist long enough, there's good possibility that a vortex will form in the great lakes region. Assuming that indeed does happen, that would funnel arctic everywhere east of the Rockies. It's a situation where the cold air just overwhelms. Thats what happened in December of 83.

BBBBBBBBRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!!! I shiver everytime I remember that winter!!!!!!! :froze:

AggieSpirit · #12 Postby **AggieSpirit** » Fri Dec 03, 2004 6:04 pm

I was 7 in 1983. And I remember that in the winter of 1983, I went with my uncle here in Texas, and skated on frozen ponds! The ONLY time the ice has EVER been thick enough for that in my lifetime down here.

The cold from December 83 lasted well into January if I remember correctly.

#13 Postby **vbhoutex** » Fri Dec 03, 2004 6:18 pm

You remember correctly!

azsnowman · #14 Postby **azsnowman** » Fri Dec 03, 2004 6:48 pm

Yup....just as I suspected, yet another DRY winter for us! It started out nice, but like most things these days, about half way into something, it turns to SH*T! AH WELL.....maybe NEXT winter will turn out better (I don't believe a word I just said, this is MY way of using reverse psychology) "LOL!"

Dennis

#15 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Sat Dec 04, 2004 3:38 pm

Snow, go to my homepage and read my winter outlook for AZ in the monthly summary and you will have my thoughts on the matter. A western ridge fits quite nicely into that scenario.

Steve

PTrackerLA · #16 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Sat Dec 04, 2004 6:30 pm

Houston AFD mentions the possible pattern change. Sounds like it could become very cold if the models pan out.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
303 PM CST SAT DEC 4 2004

.DISCUSSION...
FRONT WELL OFFSHORE FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVEMENT THOUGH IT IS
STILL SLOW. KCRP VWP STILL SHOWING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DOWN LOW BUT
KEWX AND LEDBETTER SHOWING SE TO S VEERING LOW LEVEL PROFILES THAT
HAVE BEEN WEAKENING. THIS SHOULD SPELL A SLOW LIFT NORTHWARD OF THE
WARM FRONT TONIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE IT MOVE INLAND IN THE MORNING THOUGH
IT MAY BE SLOW SUNDAY MORNING THEN SPEED UP IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST WILL NOT FLUCTUATE MUCH AFTER
06Z. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND BY THEN THE
AREA SHOULD BE DESTABILIZED ENOUGH FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAN WE GET
TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN THAN THUNDER TONIGHT.
MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A WEAK PACIFIC COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH. DEEPER LIFT AND GREATER 1000-700 MB MEAN LAYER RH
WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONGER LLJ MONDAY AND
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ENTRANCE REGION BODES WELL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN BUT IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT
TO ADD THIS AT THIS TIME. A DAY OR TWO OF MILD WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THEN A QUICK RELOAD FOR MORE STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT (AND THAT IS A VERY BIG IF) THEN THE PATTERN
COULD BE CHANGING FAIRLY DRAMATICALLY AND THE TROUGH-ECMWF (DEEPENING
CUTOFF-GFS) SWINGING IN THURSDAY COULD BE THE ENGINE TO CHANGE IT TO A
PNA PATTERN OF RIDGING WEST TROUGH EAST. THIS COULD BRING IN SOME VERY
STRONG CAA THURSDAY-FRIDAY. WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS YET BUT IF THIS
PATTERN COMES TRUE THEN THE CURRENT GRIDS ARE TOO WARM AND WINDS ARE
NOT NEARLY STRONG ENOUGH. WILL AT LEAST HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE THE NEXT
FEW RUNS.45

Miss Mary · #17 Postby **Miss Mary** » Sat Dec 04, 2004 9:01 pm

So basically what you're saying is if I want to do any remaining yardwork, I need to do it NOW?! Believe it or not, 62 if predicted for Monday, in Cincinnati. Everyone was was out in my neighborhood today raking remaining fallen leaves and cutting lawns (our street is lined with Bradford Pear trees, that drop leaves late). Hoping to get to mine tomorrow.

Mary

#18 Postby **Portastorm** » Sun Dec 05, 2004 9:07 am

The GFS for three days now has been consistent in progging a major pattern change in the U.S. beginning around Dec. 10th. This scenario was first locked on by the European, so, as usual, the GFS lagged behind but caught up!

Any way you slice it, looks like many of us are going to see much colder temperatures in 7-10 days. This ought to be fun to watch develop!

Anonymous · #19 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Dec 05, 2004 11:08 am

It will be fun to watch indeed ! Looks like the 540 line moves all the way into SC by Sunday.

#20 Postby **gboudx** » Sun Dec 05, 2004 11:19 am

Dallas-Ft. Worth NWS not buying into a pattern change which affects the area apparently:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
440 AM CST SUN DEC 5 2004

....HOWEVER...OUR PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE UNSETTLED WEATHER EVERY FEW DAYS. THE LATEST RUNS DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE AS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BUT CANNOT
RULE IT OUT AT THIS POINT. HENCE...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS
TIME.

DO NOT SEE ANY STRONG COLD BLASTS IN THE NEAR TERM WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL...WITH A FEW DAYS OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BETWEEN RAIN EVENTS.

Pattern change

Pattern change

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