The latest run of the EURO 12z Run updated

[aggiecutter]

digs the trough all the way to the GOM. I like it when the EURO locks onto something and gets more bullish with each run. Looks like the cold air is on the way late next week.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

[CaptinCrunch]

I have 3 days earlier


http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/4e/mrf_850_4e.html

[aggiecutter]

EURO is even more bullish on the cold air with the latest run.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

[Lowpressure]

Euro sure has been consistent with this cold air intrusion. It is starting to get close enough for other models to get a look at it, then we can see which other models get on board (other than the GFS).

[Portastorm]

It appears to me that todays 0z run of the GFS supports the Euro solution on the pattern change. In fact, check out some of those 850mb temps for the Southland next weekend. Bbbrrrrr!!!

Perhaps the GFS is coming around after all . . . we shall see.

[vbhoutex]

It appears to me that todays 0z run of the GFS supports the Euro solution on the pattern change. In fact, check out some of those 850mb temps for the Southland next weekend. Bbbrrrrr!!!

Perhaps the GFS is coming around after all . . . we shall see.

GFS(we know what many think that stands for)is now solidly on board for an Arctic outbreak all the way to the Gulf coast, especially from LA eastward. Looks like we in TX will see a little of it but not like our friends to the East who could see some VERY cold temps around the 13th or 14th. I haven't looked at precip possibilities yet. Could get interesting for some!

[Chris the Weather Man]

Could December 1983 repeat be in the cards?

[Amanzi]

Ok guys, here is a duh question. How do those numbers\colors on the map http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest translate into temperatures?????

[CaptinCrunch]

It appears to me that todays 0z run of the GFS supports the Euro solution on the pattern change. In fact, check out some of those 850mb temps for the Southland next weekend. Bbbrrrrr!!!

Perhaps the GFS is coming around after all . . . we shall see.

GFS(we know what many think that stands for)is now solidly on board for an Arctic outbreak all the way to the Gulf coast, especially from LA eastward. Looks like we in TX will see a little of it but not like our friends to the East who could see some VERY cold temps around the 13th or 14th. I haven't looked at precip possibilities yet. Could get interesting for some!

Well we our expecting some shower's tonight thru Sunday and again Wednesday night going into Thursday, accuweather has snow and freezing rain in the forecast for us a few days past the 10th so I can only hope for the best ( a complete WHITE OUT!! ) I keep everyone imformed.

[vbhoutex]

I guess I should have said the models do indicate that CC's area will get a good dose of the cold, but it appears to slide just to our East here in SE TX as it heads for the GOM. Not quite sure how that will happen though since FW area is to our NW. Guess we'll have to watch and see what is developing as it gets closer.

[aggiecutter]

Chris, If the vortex forms in the lakes, which the EURO indicates it will, then a repeat of 83 is a distinct possibility. It just depends on how much cold air is available at that time. Remember, this is still 10 days away. I would only pay attention to general trends of the model, not specifics. Having said that, the general trend of the EURO the past 3 days has been very encouraging.

Based on trends from past years, analogs if you will, I think everyone east of the Rockies will be in for a very cold period starting around mid-month and lasting til the New Year. After that, the rest of the winter will probably be variable in the southern plains.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Yes, it is still 10 days away, but if this happens, it would surely be a mid December to Remember.

[wxguy25]

Ok guys, here is a duh question. How do those numbers\colors on the map http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest translate into temperatures?????

Bron -- those lines/colors represent lines of equal geopotential height (or in technical terms, they are known as isohyspes).

As a rule, pressure decreases with height, so the higher up you go the lower the pressure will be. Areas of lower heights are known as troughs and areas of higher heights are ridges.

Because rising air cools, and cooler air is more dense (thusly sinking) heights will lower since pressure drops more quickly in colder air making the atmosphere thinner vertically. On the 500mb prog which you are inquiring about, areas of lower heights (troughs) imply that the 500mb level is closer to the surface, and ridges (areas of high heights) imply that the 500mb level is further from the surface.

Heights will be lower in the arctic regions b/c the change in pressure w/ height as a result of the cooler temperatures there (air is more dense and thickness lower). They will be higher in the tropical regions since the change in pressure with height is smaller and temperatures warmer (sinking air warms becomes less dense and expands resulting in a higher thickness).

Ridges (troughs) can also be associated w/ areas where warm air being advected poleward (cold air being advected equatorward).

[wxguy25]

Yes, it is still 10 days away, but if this happens, it would surely be a mid December to Remember.

NOT going to happen.

[Chris the Weather Man]

I obviously was -removed- there, LOL!

[wxguy25]

I obviously was -removed- there, LOL!

Nah, its not your fault b/c the low in the lakes that the EC has on D7 is NOT a PV of any kind. Its little more than a normal 500mb low rest is explained here:


http://www.geocities.com/usafrw/usablog.html

[Amanzi]

Ok guys, here is a duh question. How do those numbers\colors on the map http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest translate into temperatures?????

Bron -- those lines/colors represent lines of equal geopotential height (or in technical terms, they are known as isohyspes).

As a rule, pressure decreases with height, so the higher up you go the lower the pressure will be. Areas of lower heights are known as troughs and areas of higher heights are ridges.

Because rising air cools, and cooler air is more dense (thusly sinking) heights will lower since pressure drops more quickly in colder air making the atmosphere thinner vertically. On the 500mb prog which you are inquiring about, areas of lower heights (troughs) imply that the 500mb level is closer to the surface, and ridges (areas of high heights) imply that the 500mb level is further from the surface.

Heights will be lower in the arctic regions b/c the change in pressure w/ height as a result of the cooler temperatures there (air is more dense and thickness lower). They will be higher in the tropical regions since the change in pressure with height is smaller and temperatures warmer (sinking air warms becomes less dense and expands resulting in a higher thickness).

Ridges (troughs) can also be associated w/ areas where warm air being advected poleward (cold air being advected equatorward).

Thanks so much for the explanation, I really appreciate it!

[CaptinCrunch]

Look at this loop, if this comes true look out East coast, very COLD ARTIC air will invade all the way to S Florida and TExas will see some of this as well.

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/loop/mrf_850_loop.html

[PurdueWx80]

The 00Z ECM is the coldest and most active run I've seen yet. It would spell clipper after clipper that would only act to deepen the eastern CONUS trough next week (and develop a PV if cold air from Siberia or Northern Canada can get involved). Also, the Lakes will more than likely have their first major outbreak of December lake effect snow - could this rival Buffalo's snowstorm of a couple of winters ago??? We'll soon see.

[PurdueWx80]

12Z run continues with development of polar vortex over the Lakes!! Prior to this it takes a storm up west of the mountains to near Toledo/Cleveland with a coastal low taking over and bombing out as it rides the East Coast. Looks like some fun winter wx comin' up for much of the east!