And yet ANOTHER SNOW ADVISORY!

[azsnowman]

Here we Goooooo! Yet ANOTHER snow ADVISORY has JUST been issued AND...the system for this coming Weds is SUPPOSE to be AS big if NOT bigger PLUS.....the ridge that's building "Phhfffft!" ain't gonna last but a "few days"


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
309 PM MST SUN DEC 5 2004

...A SNOW ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY..

.ANOTHER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. FOR
LOCATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED ABOVE 5500 FEET. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
FLAGSTAFF TO SHOW LOW.

TRAVELERS AND OTHERS WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. STAY TUNED TO
YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE...NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR CHECK THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR
UPDATES ON THIS STORM.

AZZ017-061200-
WHITE MOUNTAINS-
309 PM MST SUN DEC 5 2004

...SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL NOON MONDAY..

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE IN THE EVENING WITH
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY MIDDAY
MONDAY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA WITH HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.


Dennis

[azsnowman]

Pay close attention to the last sentence of the last paragraph...........

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 052239 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF 230 PM MST SUN DEC 05 2004 .SYNOPSIS...A STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING AREAS OF SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. AFTER CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY...ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW BACK TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...A CLOSED-LOW WAS SPINNING JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE MOVING THE LOW CENTER SOUTHWARD TO NEAR SAN DIEGO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFTING THE LOW CENTER ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE CHARACTER OF THE LOW CENTER AS IT TRACKS ACROSS ARIZONA. BOTH MODELS FILL THE LOW AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA BUT THE GFS RETAINS A CLOSED CIRCULATION WHILE THE ETA GENERATES AN OPEN WAVE BY MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS TRACK PLACES THE MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS SOUTHWARD UNDER A DECENT WRAP AROUND BAND NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER. UNDER THE GFS SCENARIO THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ABOVE 5000 FEET ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME LEANING HEAVILY TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. JUST DOESN`T APPEAR FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY THE LOW WILL OPEN AND FILL SO QUICKLY. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND MIDDAY MONDAY. A WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER VIGOROUS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE SO COULD SEE ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BRING GENERALLY CLEAR AND WARMER WEATHER TO THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING THAT THE RIDGE MAY BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE EXTENDED AT ZERO FOR NOW BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE SUGGESTING. MCCOLLUM && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SNOW ADVISORY FROM TONIGHT UNTIL NOON MONDAY ABOVE 5500 FEET ZONES: 8/15/16/17/18/38

[aveosmth]

That ridge for the end of the week was supposed to be extremely strong....so that would be good news if it breaks down rather quickly...we will have to see.

[flcane]

What does this mean for california?

[Chris the Weather Man]

Nah, we, northeast, want that ridge in the west... So we can get the trough...

[azsnowman]

Nah, we, northeast, want that ridge in the west... So we can get the trough...

After 9 YEARS of EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL drought conditions, it's OUR turn for a HARD, WET winter. Our lives are at stake here e.g. drinking water, (if this drought continues another 2 years) will be ALMOST non existent! I for one am TICKLED TO NO END seeing that this ridge "may" be a bust!

Dennis

[weatherlover427]

Nah, we, northeast, want that ridge in the west... So we can get the trough...

After 9 YEARS of EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL drought conditions, it's OUR turn for a HARD, WET winter. Our lives are at stake here e.g. drinking water, (if this drought continues another 2 years) will be ALMOST non existent! I for one am TICKLED TO NO END seeing that this ridge "may" be a bust!

Dennis

Me too, I'm over here in California ... we're already at HALF of our normal rainfall for the season and we're not even halfway through it yet! This is encouraging news, let's hope it keeps up!