Where's my winter?

[SouthernWx]

I foresee a very cold wx pattern developing over the southeast later this winter....already predicted the first 0° temp in metro Atlanta since 1985; just based on the overall pattern I see, along with recent volcanic activity in Washington, and the after-effects of all the hurricanes....that means a GOM and Atlantic offshore GA/ SC with less heat energy. If I don't miss my guess, many of us will be wishing for some warm wx before January is in the books (snow is fun...frozen & burst water pipes and dead car batteries aren't

This very warm weather only makes me more concerned that we'll experience some extremely cold weather after Christmas....possibly at Christmas. In December 1983, intense tornadoes struck Alabama on the 3rd....it was very warm and muggy, just as today was. On Christmas Day 1983 the low was -1° F.

In 1977, it didn't even frost here until early December. At mom's funeral on 12/14/77, it was so warm you could hardly wear a jacket it was so warm....yet 1977-78 ended up a very cold winter with several bouts of wintry precip (albeit light snow) here in metro Atlanta. Also, on Christmas Eve 1984, it was 73° here; I worked on Christmas Day in short sleeves. Less than a month later, we experienced the coldest temperature in 85 yrs...-11° here and -8° at ATL on 1/21/85.

[vbhoutex]

Here is another confirmation of the coming pattern change. It is from a Weathermatrix member. His credentials are obvious and I watched him pretty much nail the TC's this Hurricane Season too, so I trust his postings.

As all know we have had mild weather so far in Florida in Fall 2004. But as I've warned for a good while now this pattern will come to an end, rather abruptly at that. The weather pattern will do a complete flip beginning on Saturday 12/11/04 to much colder and wetter and will last for the next 15-20 days.

The jet stream is currently transitioning into a Pacific North America (PNA) pattern. That means a big high pressure ridge in Alaska down through western Canada and the U.S. and a big trough in the eastern 2/3's of North America including Florida. We will also see a big ridge build in the Caspian Sea region of Europe.

This pattern will open the door to polar and arctic air masses to include the "over the pole" Siberian express deep into the SE U.S. as happened in December 1983 and 1989 and 2000. BUT at the same time we will see El Nino continue to slowly strengthen. This means undercutting low latitude winter storm systems and lot's of precipitation across the deep SW/S/SE U.S. Hopefully the arctic/polar jet streams will not phase with the El Nino stoked up subtropical jet and the coldest weather will stay north of the Florida peninsula.

How does that Bing Crosby song go?! "I'm dreaming of a white Christmas".

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA

[CaptinCrunch]

Yes Sir that's right, in 1989 it was a cool but avg start to December here as well, and by the 3rd week we had high's in 20's and a low of -1 on the 23rd making it the 3rd all time lowest temp recorded for D/FW.

[sertorius]

vbhoutex:

I hope you are correct!!! The latest model runs (as I've said before, I'm a Latin teacher so my knowledge is incred. slim!!) seem to really back off the cold in the central plains-we have about 2-3 shots that last a day and then gone-the Euro even seems to be this way. The NWS out of Topeka has us dry and in the 40's-50's thru next Wednesday and then we hit another zonal pattern for the remiander of next week-the GFS seems to have pushed the cold air back to the 20th and then warms us back up again by x-mass. But from your post I know things are changing-I just wish I could see it better!!!! Have a great night

[JenyEliza]

I foresee a very cold wx pattern developing over the southeast later this winter....already predicted the first 0° temp in metro Atlanta since 1985; just based on the overall pattern I see, along with recent volcanic activity in Washington, and the after-effects of all the hurricanes....that means a GOM and Atlantic offshore GA/ SC with less heat energy. If I don't miss my guess, many of us will be wishing for some warm wx before January is in the books (snow is fun...frozen & burst water pipes and dead car batteries aren't

This very warm weather only makes me more concerned that we'll experience some extremely cold weather after Christmas....possibly at Christmas. In December 1983, intense tornadoes struck Alabama on the 3rd....it was very warm and muggy, just as today was. On Christmas Day 1983 the low was -1° F.

In 1977, it didn't even frost here until early December. At mom's funeral on 12/14/77, it was so warm you could hardly wear a jacket it was so warm....yet 1977-78 ended up a very cold winter with several bouts of wintry precip (albeit light snow) here in metro Atlanta. Also, on Christmas Eve 1984, it was 73° here; I worked on Christmas Day in short sleeves. Less than a month later, we experienced the coldest temperature in 85 yrs...-11° here and -8° at ATL on 1/21/85.

This is the first "hint" of frozen precip anywhere even close to Atlanta this year that I've seen from Peachtree City!

Things are looking up...at least we're looking at possiblity of "flakes" in N. GA. Now all we need is something a little closer to home!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/html/afd.php?pil=FFCAFDFFC&version=1

.LONG TERM...
AFTER THURSDAY...DRIER AND COOLER PATTERN SETS IN. LARGE SCALE TROUGHING...CLOSED LOW SCENARIO SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH MEAN TROUGH AND 1305 THICKNESS LINE INTO CENTRAL GA MAY EVEN SUPPORT OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME FLAKES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE FAR NORTHEAST GA MTNS...BETTER CHANCE IN NORTH CAROLINA MTNS. SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S.
&&

[Cookiely]

I'm burning up. I would be satisfied with fall instead of winter. It feels like late summer. I helped my mother with her "winter garden" ha ha I was perspiring like the summer garden.