Texas Weather Statements 12/8/04

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

NMS Midland sees something different

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
245 PM CST WED DEC 8 2004

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH CLOUDS HAD CLEARED MOST OF THE AREA BY 18Z LEAVING THE AREA
UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH WEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STAY TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP WEST WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10KT
RANGE MOST OF THE NIGHT...SO HAVE WARMED LOWS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO
MOST PLACES. MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER W TX
AND EASTERN NM WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO CENTRAL TX THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS AT KGDP AND THE BOWL HAVE BEEN NEAR HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA TODAY...BUT HAVE STAYED BELOW EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE
HOURS IN THE MORNING AT THE BOWL. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DECREASE
SLOWLY AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...SO WE/RE NOT EXPECTING ANY HIGH
WIND WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...SO NO BIG CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WEAKENED BY A TROUGH TRANSLATING EAST
ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE
REMAINS STRONG OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY
TOMORROW...WITH GUADALUPE PASS TEMPORARILY FLIRTING WITH HIGH
WIND CRITERIA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MSLP GRADIENT LOOKS DECENT...
BUT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 700MB NOT OPTIMUM FOR BRINGING HIGH
WINDS TO THE PASS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
THE TIMING OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MIDDAY READINGS OVER THE LOWER PROVINCES
OF CANADA (10-15F SOUTHERN PROVINCES TO NEAR -30F NORTH) AND SHALLOW
AIRMASS (CWEG 12Z RAOB)...THE COLD AIR MAY ARRIVE QUICKER THAN MODEL
FORECASTS SUGGEST. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WERE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY AND MAY HAVE TO BE DROPPED AGAIN PENDING FUTURE MODEL DATA.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

And what is NWS Fort Worth saying in the last few lines? Are they trying to say they are clueless.?:?:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
213 PM CST WED DEC 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT DUE TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
ISENTROPIC ACCENT. WARM THURSDAY DUE TO WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND
850MB TEMPS IN THE 9-13 DEGREE RANGE. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH NTX THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA ON FRIDAY.
LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS SOUTHERLY SATURDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND
WARMING TEMPS AT 850MB. THIS LEADS TO WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING THAT NIGHT. STRONG CAA ONCE AGAIN
MOVES OVER NTX MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S AND A POSSIBLE FREEZE TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
TIGHT PRESSURE MONDAY THUS WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. SOMEWHAT
WARMER WEDNESDAY AS COLD SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
RETURNS SOUTHERLY.

THE HIGHS CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS NTX THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST AND MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY
MIDNIGHT.

CONTINUED TO UNDER MOS TEMPS BEHIND EACH FRONT DUE TO STRONG CAA AND
MODEL BIAS OF NOT BEING COLD ENOUGH WITH AIR MASS EXCHANGES THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

[Portastorm]

And what is NWS Fort Worth saying in the last few lines? Are they trying to say they are clueless.?:?:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
213 PM CST WED DEC 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT DUE TO FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
ISENTROPIC ACCENT. WARM THURSDAY DUE TO WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND
850MB TEMPS IN THE 9-13 DEGREE RANGE. UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH NTX THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY STRONG CAA ON FRIDAY.
LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS SOUTHERLY SATURDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND
WARMING TEMPS AT 850MB. THIS LEADS TO WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING THAT NIGHT. STRONG CAA ONCE AGAIN
MOVES OVER NTX MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S AND A POSSIBLE FREEZE TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A
TIGHT PRESSURE MONDAY THUS WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. SOMEWHAT
WARMER WEDNESDAY AS COLD SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
RETURNS SOUTHERLY.

THE HIGHS CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS NTX THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST AND MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY
MIDNIGHT.

CONTINUED TO UNDER MOS TEMPS BEHIND EACH FRONT DUE TO STRONG CAA AND
MODEL BIAS OF NOT BEING COLD ENOUGH WITH AIR MASS EXCHANGES THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

On the contrary CC ... they are basically saying they are not buying into the computer model-generated numbers for early next week because they know the model does not handle cold air masses like this one.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Thanks for the clarification Portastorn

[aggiecutter]

The GFS has a reputation for having a cold bias, but more often than not it underdoes the low level dense arctic air, especially in the southern plains and southeast.

[CaptinCrunch]

Each NWS interpets the model info differently for their area then works with one another to best forecast over a larger area. For N-TX the NWS out of Fort Worth and Norman OK. are the best to check for updates for Cold fronts coming down from the Northern Plains, and the NWS out of Midland/Odessa for Upper Low systems moving up from the SW or a Winter Storm moving east from the TX Plains.

Just keep checking back a few time's a day and you will see how each update very's from the next as the model runs change.