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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 082241 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF 340 PM MST WED DEC 08 2004 .SYNOPSIS...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING FROM THE MOGOLLON NORTH AND EASTWARD THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE...BRINGING BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND A WARMING TREND TO AREAS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SOUTHWESTWARD. TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS...WITH COOL AIR LINGERING IN THE LOW ELEVATIONS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND CHINLE VALLEY. && .DISCUSSION...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SATURATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING WEAK DYNAMICS ALOFT TO PRODUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY REACHING THE SURFACE...ENHANCED BY SEEDER-FEEDER PROCESSES. CLEARING SHOULD BEGIN OVERNIGHT AS AN EAST PACIFIC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD AZ. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE SLOWLY UNTIL PRECIPITATION ENDS DUE TO WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL DUE TO THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TO BRING BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY TO FRIDAY...HOLDING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DOWN TO SEASONABLE NORMS OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. THE LCR SHOULD SEE LIMITED WARMING DUE TO VALLEY BASED INVERSION SETTING UP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SOUTH OF THE RIM...HAVE STUCK CLOSELY TO MOS VALUES AS DOWNSLOPING AND THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE A RAPID WARMUP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD MAX OUT SUNDAY BEFORE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE GRADUALLY LOWER HEIGHTS NEXT WEEK. NEXT FORESEEABLE PRECIPITATION AFTER THE CURRENT EVENT ENDS LOOKS LIKE THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS GFS IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT CARVING OUT A CLOSED LOW TOWARDS NEXT WEEKS END NEAR SOUTHWESTERN US. ONTON && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.