CPC Update=Weak El Nino thru early 2005

[cycloneye]

Synopsis: Weak warm-episode (El Niño) conditions are expected to continue into early 2005.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... index.html

No change from the last november update to the December one from the Climate Prediction Center as the weak el nino will continue thru early spring 2005.

[weatherwindow]

perhaps the tipping point has been reached. earlier forecasts were more guarded. however, the absence of warming in eastpac is a little confusing. i recall, perhaps from gray, that the post december development of a warm event is pretty unusual. maybe, we are actually facing a lingering neutral into winter 2005. also from gray, marginal events tend to be more persistent than the big spikes(ala 1997). i believe gray's conservative numbers for next season, while seeming a bit low, may be pretty close. note how effectively even the marginal conditions of oct and nov capped this season ..........rich

[Anonymous]

The beginning stages of an ENSO episode would be rare during this time of the year. ENSO episodes that are already underway usually peak between December and April before weakening May-June. Some events can last for a few years, but the equatorial PAC has been generally warmer than average since 2002.