Texas NWS mets wake up

[Portastorm]

Here are some snippets from Monday morning forecast discussions. Any way you slice it (either with a GFS or Euro knife), looks like next week is going to be a wild one!!


From Houston:
TEMPS ARE UNCERTAIN NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE COLD SURGES...

From Fort Worth:
LOOKING BEYOND 7 DAYS...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS PATTERN OVER THE COMING DAYS.

From Lubbock:
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF SOME MUCH COLDER AIR BY NEXT WEEK. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITHIN THE MODELS.

[Portastorm]

I will add for further grins that the 0Z run and the 6Z run of the GFS today shows a snow event for central and parts of south Texas on Dec. 23rd-24th.

While its safe to say the GFS cannot be trusted for details that far out, the "trend" is certainly cause for great interest!

[weatherlover427]

*is not grinning one bit*

[vbhoutex]

*VBHOUTEX* has BIG SE GRIN on his face if this verifies!!!!!!

[southerngale]

I will add for further grins that the 0Z run and the 6Z run of the GFS today shows a snow event for central and parts of south Texas on Dec. 23rd-24th.

While its safe to say the GFS cannot be trusted for details that far out, the "trend" is certainly cause for great interest!

Exactly what parts of south Texas?

[Johnny]

I remember someone posting some maps last week that showed snow fall amounts for Texas over Christmas weekend. I guess the GFS is still showing this? Just for grins...can someone post some maps of this? Thanks.

[Brent]

*VBHOUTEX* has BIG SE GRIN on his face if this verifies!!!!!!

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

The Video update is jaw-dropping.

GFS showing a monster storm 2 days before Christmas and it's cold enough for... YEAH BABY.

*trying not to get excited because of all the busts in past years*

[PTrackerLA]

*VBHOUTEX* has BIG SE GRIN on his face if this verifies!!!!!!

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

The Video update is jaw-dropping.

GFS showing a monster storm 2 days before Christmas and it's cold enough for... YEAH BABY.

*trying not to get excited because of all the busts in past years*

"Chance of 1983-1989 type cold" Along with a possible storm next week WE MIGHT SEE SOME SNOW!

[BreinLa]

Hey PT make sure we see that snow before Christmas Eve Please I am leaving for Tennessee lol

[Portastorm]

I will add for further grins that the 0Z run and the 6Z run of the GFS today shows a snow event for central and parts of south Texas on Dec. 23rd-24th.

While its safe to say the GFS cannot be trusted for details that far out, the "trend" is certainly cause for great interest!

Exactly what parts of south Texas?

The 0Z run showed an area south of Waco to San Antonio and east to Houston with possible winter precip.

The 6Z run looked more like along the I-10 corridor from Houston to San Antonio and slightly north and south of that line.

Then we have today's 12Z run which backed off this scenario entirely.

I think it is a given that we all have to carefully watch this pattern into next week when the weather could turn nasty.

[PTrackerLA]

Just watched the update to the ABC video, the 00z run of the GFS shows a Christmas Eve snowstorm on the gulf coast from a gulf low. Then again on the 27th with another major High pressure system diving in. I know it's a LONG way out and the GFS but it will be a very interesting month...

[WhiteShirt]

Just watched the update to the ABC video, the 00z run of the GFS shows a Christmas Eve snowstorm on the gulf coast from a gulf low. Then again on the 27th with another major High pressure system diving in. I know it's a LONG way out and the GFS but it will be a very interesting month...

Does that snowfall include the Houston area? Thanks.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

And now they have fallen back asleep. No mention of anything big happening next week in this morning's discussions. But then again we are in for our first freeze of the season tonight and they couldn't forecast that from 24-48 hours out either.

[jeff]

Even with no mention in the morning AFD's you cannot disregard the overall pattern trend in the extended guidance. Massive ridging along the W and NW coast with a deep downstream trough over the eastern 2/3rds of the US. Yesterday the GFS and EURO wanted to take the coldest air rapidly to the east coast, but the latest runs has it dropping more southward down the plains and then across the east.

Front this Friday may be stronger than guidance is suggesting also with a light freeze here in SE TX again by Sun. AM.

GFS has backed off on the winter event early to mid next week, but then hammers away Christmas and the week after

[jeff]

NWS has issued a Freeze Warning for the entire area including the
coastal locations for tonight.

Hard freeze is expected along and north of a line from Katy to Spring
to Liberty with upper 20's to lower 30's south of this line.

Strong 1042mb high over central KS will build into NE TX this
afternoon and park over SE TX tonight. With clear skies and light
winds a strong radiation inversion will set up shortly after sunset
and the temps will drop quickly toward the dewpoint (upper teens and
low 20's).

Temps:

With dewpoints currently in the teens from College Station to Lufkin
lows in the upper teens to 22 are possible over the northern counties.
North of the Katy to Spring to Liberty line lows will be in the 20-25
range and 25-32 over the rest of the area. Winds and "warm" water
along the coast may prevent a freeze right on the water with lows from
32-34. It should be noted that any wind mixing tonight will result in
lows several degrees warmer than current forecast, however a
completely decoupled boundary layer will result in temps at the
dewpoints tomorrow morning.

Model Forecast Lows for tonight:

BUSH:

ETA 27
NGM 23
MAV 24
GFS 21

College Station: 19-21
Lufkin: 16-20
Hobby: 27-31
Galveston: 31-34

Impacts:

Should temps. reach their forecasted lows it will be a killing freeze
for most of the area. Tender vegetation will be severely impacted if
not completely destroyed (including tropical plants, citrus trees,
ect). Temps. will be at or below freezing for 7-10 hours within the
Hard Freeze area and 3-5 hours outside the 610 Loop. Outside spinkler
systems and water faucets should be protected north of a Katy to
Spring to Liberty line.

We may see more freezing temps. this weekend with another cold front
on Friday. Stay tuned.

Extended:

Arctic event with extremely cold air still appears possible the week
of Christmas, although this mornings model runs have pushed it back
until Christmas Day and the week between Christmas and New Years.

Forecast:

Today: sunny but cold with highs in the low 50's. North winds 5-10mph

Tonight: Freeze Warning in effect

Clear and very cold with lows in the upper teens and low 20's north
northern zones to 20-25 Conroe area to 25-30 Harris County to 30-34
coast.Light winds

Wednesday: Increasing clouds with highs in the low 50's.

Thursday: cloudy with a 30% chance of light rain. Lows in the mid 30's
and highs in the mid 50's.

Jeff Lindner

[Portastorm]

And now they have fallen back asleep. No mention of anything big happening next week in this morning's discussions. But then again we are in for our first freeze of the season tonight and they couldn't forecast that from 24-48 hours out either.

With signs that the southern jet stream might get much more active 8-15 days down the road, I wouldn't depend too much on the GFS for details. The model stinks when there are two active jet streams in the U.S. It does far better when phasing occurs. Euro and Canadian will do better.

[JenBayles]

Should temps. reach their forecasted lows it will be a killing freeze for most of the area.

DEATH TO ALL MOSQUITOES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Janie34]

And now they have fallen back asleep. No mention of anything big happening next week in this morning's discussions. But then again we are in for our first freeze of the season tonight and they couldn't forecast that from 24-48 hours out either.

NWS Jackson (Ms) has fallen asleep again as well. Here's what the AFD read yesterday:

THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL ADVERTISING SIMILAR FLOW
PATTERNS WHICH LENDS TO GREATER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL IN THE 7 DAY
FORECAST. SOME HINTS THAT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK COULD SEE THE
FIRST DELIVERY OF A TRULY ARCTIC-ORIGINATING AIRMASS JUST AHEAD OF
THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND...MORE ON THAT IN LATER FORECASTS...BRRRRRR.

and no mention of the possible Christmas outbreak today. It may be that the NWS mets have a lot on their plate today. I usually take note of NWS Jackson's AFD because it is the office immediately upstream from me.

[gboudx]

It seems with the DFW NWS, it depends on which shift is typing up the discussion. But I'm not expecting to see any hints until we get closer, and the models are consistent.

[PTrackerLA]

Should temps. reach their forecasted lows it will be a killing freeze for most of the area.

DEATH TO ALL MOSQUITOES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

YES! They are Toast after tonight!