18z GFS shows a blizzard for the east coast this weekend

[bostonweatherman]

Weird track of the storm, and also very slow moving... if this keeps up for a couple more runs, the entire eastern seaboard from North Carolina north to Nova Scotia, west to the Appalachians should be on alert. This shows 20" easy for north central PA and central NY.

http://www.geocities.com/bostonwinterwe ... ssion.html

[Scorpion]

Wow! Maybe it gives us some cold rain!

[wxguy25]

Weird track of the storm, and also very slow moving... if this keeps up for a couple more runs, the entire eastern seaboard from North Carolina north to Nova Scotia, west to the Appalachians should be on alert. This shows 20" easy for north central PA and central NY.

http://www.geocities.com/bostonwinterwe ... ssion.html

I wouldn’t get my hopes up, pal.

[kmanWX]

Weird track of the storm, and also very slow moving... if this keeps up for a couple more runs, the entire eastern seaboard from North Carolina north to Nova Scotia, west to the Appalachians should be on alert. This shows 20" easy for north central PA and central NY.

http://www.geocities.com/bostonwinterwe ... ssion.html

I wouldn’t get my hopes up, pal.

I agree

For one it's way to far away...
Second the models are all flip floping on it....

I wondering what the 0z GFS will state...

[wxguy25]

Weird track of the storm, and also very slow moving... if this keeps up for a couple more runs, the entire eastern seaboard from North Carolina north to Nova Scotia, west to the Appalachians should be on alert. This shows 20" easy for north central PA and central NY.

http://www.geocities.com/bostonwinterwe ... ssion.html

I wouldn’t get my hopes up, pal.

I agree

For one it's way to far away...
Second the models are all flip floping on it....

I wondering what the 0z GFS will state...

No it's not about that. It is irresponsible (IMO at least) to insinuate that ANY areas will see 20 inches of snow before you’re even sure that the event will develop to begin with that is over a week away in a complex pattern.

You know, I find that the Majority of Major east coast snowstorms develop in patterns which you could define as synoptically non-complex vs. patterns such as this.

[Stormsfury]

You know, I find that the Majority of Major east coast snowstorms develop in patterns which you could define as synoptically non-complex vs. patterns such as this.

ABSOLUTELY 100% agreed ... about one in every twenty winter storms develop from very complex patterns, b/c timing issues, and everything has to be absolutely perfect, just like a CAT 5 during the tropical season.

Superstorm 1993 was progged way ahead in advance and the model progs (barring the GFS catch up job) progged the storm almost PERFECTLY from 5 days out is the best example.

SF

[wxguy25]

You know, I find that the Majority of Major east coast snowstorms develop in patterns which you could define as synoptically non-complex vs. patterns such as this.

ABSOLUTELY 100% agreed ... about one in every twenty winter storms develop from very complex patterns, b/c timing issues, and everything has to be absolutely perfect, just like a CAT 5 during the tropical season.

Superstorm 1993 was progged way ahead in advance and the model progs (barring the GFS catch up job) progged the storm almost PERFECTLY from 5 days out is the best example.

SF

Last winter was a great example of what a powerful PAC jet could do.

IF we did not have that, The JAN event that gave NYC a foot, the NS blizzard, and others would have had VERY different effects here in the US.

[Anonymous]

A powerful PacJet is an extremely bad word when it does nothing but prohibit the MA/NE from ever getting decent snows.

-Jeb

[JenyEliza]

You know, I find that the Majority of Major east coast snowstorms develop in patterns which you could define as synoptically non-complex vs. patterns such as this.

ABSOLUTELY 100% agreed ... about one in every twenty winter storms develop from very complex patterns, b/c timing issues, and everything has to be absolutely perfect, just like a CAT 5 during the tropical season.

Superstorm 1993 was progged way ahead in advance and the model progs (barring the GFS catch up job) progged the storm almost PERFECTLY from 5 days out is the best example.
SF

Yes, but don't forget that even up to the Friday afternoon of the 1993 Superstorm, most Mets (much less anyone else) didn't believe it was acutally going to happen!!!!!

Jen

[Wnghs2007]

Yes, but don't forget that even up to the Friday afternoon of the 1993 Superstorm, most Mets (much less anyone else) didn't believe it was acutally going to happen!!!!!

Jen

Yep just like with the last 3 runs of the GFS

Well this is the third straight run in a row that it is almost totally alike at the same time period

12z GFS



18z GFS



00z GFS



Cant get better continunity than that my friend.

[Stephanie]

Those graphs are amazing and almost frightening!

[Mike2002]

Let's say if this were to come together what could happen to central Virginia?

[BlizzzardMan]

How about western PA (Pittsburgh), as well. Looks like it may set up so that we get some snow squalls off of Lake Erie here from the arctic blast and maybe some moisture from the low itself as well. As of now, they are forecasting a 70% chance of snow here on Sunday with moderate accumulations. Still too early for all of this though, in my opinion! I'll get my hopes up and we'll end up with a half an inch or something! Happens all the time.

[vbhoutex]

How about western PA (Pittsburgh), as well. Looks like it may set up so that we get some snow squalls off of Lake Erie here from the arctic blast and maybe some moisture from the low itself as well. As of now, they are forecasting a 70% chance of snow here on Sunday with moderate accumulations. Still too early for all of this though, in my opinion! I'll get my hopes up and we'll end up with a half an inch or something! Happens all the time.

That will ALWAYS be half an inch more snow than i will have!!!!

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EST WED DEC 15 2004

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. A SECOND...STRONGER WAVE ON FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BRING
INCREASED CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 1000-850 THICKNESS
VALUES INDIACTING TOMORROW MORNINGS LOW TEPMERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING...STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
LOWS WILL TREND WARMER...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD COLDER PATTERN. GFS IS MOST
PROGRESSIVE WITH POLAR SURGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. GFS
INDICATING STRONG VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. 1000-850 THICKNESS...SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT IF GFS
PANS OUT MUCH OF FORECAST AREA MAY SEE FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY.
ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS EVENT
SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME. SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS BACK INTO AREA BY TUESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
THROUGH MIDWEEK.