Has anyone ever seen this

[aggiecutter]

The CPC has nearly the entire country below normal in its 8-14 day outlook.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... day.01.gif

[CaptinCrunch]

what about the precip??

[PurdueWx80]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... day.02.gif

[TS Zack]

This looks to be a very COLD pattern we are in now.

Next week could just turn VERY COLD like the 89 and 83 years. A big Southeast snowstorm late next week is also showing-up.

This could be a very busy weather week next week.

Radio NHCWX will be on top of it with coverage when needed, I will alert you when we stream.

Stay Tuned...

[aggiecutter]

Here's the text...


PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EST TUE DEC 14 2004

6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 20 - 24 2004 . . . . . . . FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF THE U.S. WILL BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP TROUGH CENTERED IN NORTH/CENTRAL CANADA. A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE EAST/CENTRAL PACIFIC EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO OVER ALASKA AND A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A BIT SHARPER WITH THE TROUGH IN THE EAST... AND IS IN GENERAL A LITTLE BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TEND TO RESEMBLE MORE AMPLIFIED VERSIONS OF THEIR CORRESPONDING ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS DEPICT A SHARPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A CLOSED-OFF TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF WHICH DEPICTS A BROADER EASTERN TROUGH AND LESS TROUGH ENERGY WEST OF CALIFORNIA. THE DAVA SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE FORECAST CIRCULATION PATTERN TODAY SEEMS TO BE LESS OF A SPLIT-FLOW TYPE PATTERN THAN INDICATED BY RECENT FORECASTS. IN GENERAL THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM TODAY ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE CIRCULATION FEATURES COMPARED TO THE SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE RELATIVELY LITTLE SPREAD OVER THE CONUS...BUT RATHER LARGE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...ESPECIALLY BY THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. THE PNA INDEX WHICH IS CURRENTLY STRONGLY POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN VALUE BY DAY 7...TREND TOWARDS ZERO BY DAY 10 AND BECOME NEGATIVE BY THE END OF WEEK 2. THE NAO INDEX WHICH IS CURRENTLY WEAKLY POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO STRONGLY POSITIVE BY DAY 7...TREND DOWN TO NEAR ZERO BY DAY 10 BUT REMAIN WEAKLY POSITIVE THROUGH THE END OF WEEK 2. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. DUE TO THE TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FORECAST THERE AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ALASKA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500-HPA RIDGE. MOST OF THE CONUS SHOULD HAVE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO BE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. PARTS OF THE UPPER PLAINS MAY HAVE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATON DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SERIES OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS MOVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MAY ALSO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG OF A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. MUCH OF COASTAL ALASKA SHOULD EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DUE TO ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE 500-HPA RIDGE FORECAST THERE. THE OFFICIAL D+8 HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAYS ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...5 PERCENT OF THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8... 25 PERCENT OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8... 10 PERCENT OF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7... 15 PERCENT EACH OF TODAYS HIGH RESOLUTION 0Z AND 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8 AND 5 PERCENT OF TODAYS DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 8. MODELS OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY OVERALL...RATED 4 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE COMPOSITE ANALOG TEMPERATURES FROM THE BLEND... THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICA- TIONS FROM THE BLEND... THE BIAS CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURE FORE- CAST FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE CDC REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL. THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AND EMC CALI- BRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES...THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND... THE COMPOSITE OF THE TEN BEST ANALOGS FROM THE BLEND... THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPI- TATION TOOL AND THE NEWLY IMPLEMENTED BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION TOOL FROM THE OZ OPERATIONAL GFS. . . . . . . . 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 22 - 28 2004 DURING WEEK 2 THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD HELP TO REFORM THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL U.S. THE RESULT IS THAT ALMOST THE ENTIRE NATION IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD TROUGH CENTERED NORTH OF HUDSON BAY...WHILE A RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO OVER ALASKA. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS ARE SHARPER WITH THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH AND LEAVE MORE TROUGH ENERGY BEHIND WEST OF CALIFORNIA COMPARED TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE DAVA IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT IS EVEN MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THE MODELS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY AND SUGGEST THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A SLOW RETROGRESSION. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE RELATIVELY LITTLE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S. BUT MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND EAST PACIFIC. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 60 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11... 15 PERCENT EACH OF TODAYS 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11 AND 10 PERCENT OF THE DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD IS RATED AS ABOVE AVERAGE...4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. THE 8 TO 14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOGS...NEURAL NET...AND KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND AND THE 850-HPA BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. THE 8 TO 14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AND EMC CALI- BRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE...THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND... THE COMPOSITE OF THE TEN BEST ANALOGS TO THE BLEND AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER . . . . . . . NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE - FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON AWIPS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON... THURSDAY DECEMBER 16.

[Scorpion]

Ok, dont really have the time to read all that, but this is so exciting! Even down here in Florida it might get cold! Perhaps even frozen precip in N and Central Florida! I hope this arctic outbreak pans out.

[aggiecutter]

the day 7 EURO has the Arctic air entering the Northern and Central plains, which is in good agreement with the last 7 or 8 runs of the operational GFS for that time period.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

The day 10 EURO means amplifies the trough even more. Very impressive considering this is a 3 day average.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

the day 7 EURO has the Arctic air entering the Northern and Central plains, which is in good agreement with the last 7 or 8 runs of the operational GFS for that time period.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

The day 10 EURO means amplifies the trough even more. Very impressive considering this is a 3 day average.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

Does the day 10 Euro mean real fireplace weather in time for my Christmas Eve next Friday down here in Texas?

[dvdweatherwizard]

The CPC has nearly the entire country below normal in its 8-14 day outlook.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... day.01.gif

I can say that I have never seen that before on a weekday when there is human forecaster intervention in these forecasts. Occasionally, I've seen things similar to that on the weekends, when the forecast is completely automated, but never when there is human intervention.

[Portastorm]

the day 7 EURO has the Arctic air entering the Northern and Central plains, which is in good agreement with the last 7 or 8 runs of the operational GFS for that time period.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

The day 10 EURO means amplifies the trough even more. Very impressive considering this is a 3 day average.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

Does the day 10 Euro mean real fireplace weather in time for my Christmas Eve next Friday down here in Texas?

CC ... if that day 10 Euro were to verify ... we'd have near record cold temps here in central and south Texas.

In my book that categorizes "real fireplace weather in Texas."

[PTrackerLA]

the day 7 EURO has the Arctic air entering the Northern and Central plains, which is in good agreement with the last 7 or 8 runs of the operational GFS for that time period.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

The day 10 EURO means amplifies the trough even more. Very impressive considering this is a 3 day average.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

I know those maps show very cold temps but I'm not sure how to read them. Just HOW cold does that models show temps here in Louisiana. I would assume at least the teens for lows if this is a very cold airmass.

[Scorpion]

Maybe lower . Some models take teens all the way throught the Panhandle.

[PTrackerLA]

What a Christmas that would be!

[BreinLa]

Sitting here by the fire, cold outside now brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[LAwxrgal]

Bring it on!