14 December 2004 00Z Global Models....wow

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PurdueWx80
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14 December 2004 00Z Global Models....wow

#1 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Dec 14, 2004 12:48 am

The coming cold December has been talked about in many circles, and the meteorologists who post on this board have been amazing. I've just come in to check out the 00Z models, and I must say I'm floored at the cold weather shown in days 10-15.

The 3 main globals (GEM, GFS [blah], and ECMWF) are showing one heck of a cold spell around Christmas (or perhaps a bit after). Actually, system after system looks to dig in to the main trough, acting to deepen it in the eastern 1/2 to 2/3 of the CONUS.

Before getting to the 00Z models, here is the 12Z Euro, showing a 516 decameter vortex digging rapidly into the Lakes and Ohio Valley at day 7.

Image

This would produce an EXTREME Lake Effect event, although it would likely be relatively short-lived given the in and out nature of that upper low, according to the Euro.

Moving on to this evening's model runs -

The 00Z GEM continues with it's major shots of cold weather. At Day 10, there is a 504 dm vortex digging into the Northern Plains with a strong high close on it's heels acting to bring 1000-500 mb thicknesses well below 510 (meaning daytime highs near or below 0F) well into the central US. Cross-polar flow is well-developed, according to the Canadian, helping to support lows well below zero in any area laden with fresh snowcover. Just as a reminder, day 10 is the beginning of Christmas Eve, meaning that vortex would be in the heart of the Ohio Valley, Lakes and Northeast just in time for Christmas Day. That would be a Christmas to remember in much of the Northeastern 1/4 of the country.

Image

Finally, the 00Z GFS, although crazy as usual that far out, brings the actual Polar Vortex into the United States by day 15.

Image

It also has the cold Christmas shot, but the day 15 event is much stronger, with 850 mb temps pushing -30C (again below zero highs and much below zero low temperatures for much of the country north of the Mason-Dixon line...and yes sub-freezing in much of the south and southeast).

Also, for fun, the 12Z Japanese global brings -30C air at 850 into the Northeast on the 21st.

Image

Now, we should all take these model runs with a grain of salt - with that said, the agreement (although not perfect) between models and each model's runs is impressive and something that doesn't happen often. In my educated opinion, the extreme nature of the projected cold is well supported by the various indices and teleconnections talked about by the professional mets here.

As exciting as all this is, it will mean very expensive heating bills for much of the nation - that is something none of us needs right now. I just hope there is a ton of fun snow to go along with the cold. There is nothing worse than cold, "brown" weather.
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#2 Postby dvdweatherwizard » Tue Dec 14, 2004 1:30 am

:eek: :eek: :eek:

Those are some mighty ominous maps with respect to cold and an extreme pattern! This is what makes weather so interesting, at least to me. And we will follow it day by day, model run by model run, and watch it change and evolve into the final outcome..........but wait, weather is continuous, there IS NO final outcome. It just goes on and on and on, like the Energizer Bunny. I could spend a lifetime studying, observing, and appreciating meteorology and the weather, and I probably will...........okay, enough babbling at 1:30 am.
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#3 Postby rainstorm » Tue Dec 14, 2004 6:37 am

thanks for the info
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#4 Postby yoda » Tue Dec 14, 2004 6:43 am

Anybody seen the new 0z EURO? :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#5 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Dec 14, 2004 8:53 am

yoda wrote:Anybody seen the new 0z EURO? :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:


Yeah, just saw it Yoda! Amazing continuity from yesterday morning's run - even if the vortex is very slightly further east. At day 10 much of the country looks very cold, even the Pacific Northwest.
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#6 Postby aggiecutter » Tue Dec 14, 2004 9:30 am

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#7 Postby Stephanie » Tue Dec 14, 2004 9:50 am

There is nothing worse than cold, "brown" weather


Absolutely Purdue! :(
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#8 Postby Anonymous » Tue Dec 14, 2004 11:18 am

Very interesting proposition concerning the arctic air outbreaks between now and X'mas ! Does look like a much colder second half of December for much of the eastern part of the country. All we need now is more moisture. :D
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#9 Postby chadtm80 » Tue Dec 14, 2004 11:23 am

:cold: :jacket:
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#10 Postby dvdweatherwizard » Tue Dec 14, 2004 12:30 pm

yoda wrote:Anybody seen the new 0z EURO? :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:



Holy fishpaste! :eek:
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#11 Postby rainstorm » Tue Dec 14, 2004 1:23 pm

the next 10 days should have a few clippers. no storms.
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#12 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Dec 14, 2004 3:30 pm

rainstorm wrote:the next 10 days should have a few clippers. no storms.


did anyone just hear that?
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#13 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Dec 14, 2004 3:37 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
rainstorm wrote:the next 10 days should have a few clippers. no storms.


did anyone just hear that?


LOL! Helen's weather posts are as crazy as some of the political ones! ;) J/K!

Seriously though, there almost has to be a big storm at some point in the next 10 days, and indications are that a low will bomb out along or just east of the Eastern Seaboard. It may just happen that it'll be too far off the coast to cause much harm in the big cities, but it is too far away to know for sure.

Here is one such possibility -
12Z UKMET 120 hours - notice 996 mb low near 30N
Image

24 hours later the low has deepend 31 mb as the southern and northern streams phase - major cold weather also comes into the eastern US; Notice also a strong clipper in it's own right moving into the northern Plains!
Image

In checking the other globals, I noticed every single one paints this scenario - amazing! The HPC and CPC are following the current modeling idea of taking the storm well out to sea. In my mind the coastal areas will really need to watch out for a potential blizzard with the extreme cold and wind behind that powerful low. If it ends up being just a hair to the left of the current projected track, Boston, the Cape and Long Island will be in for a ride come Monday.
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#14 Postby Scorpion » Tue Dec 14, 2004 3:50 pm

If this happens, how cold is it going to get down in the deep South and Florida? Record levels maybe?? :D
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#15 Postby JenyEliza » Tue Dec 14, 2004 3:51 pm

:thermo: :thermo: :thermo: :thermo:
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#16 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Dec 14, 2004 4:16 pm

Well, let's assume for the sake of this post that the UKMET's prog is correct ... it WOULD indicate everyone from NC (and maybe some of SC) gets hit ...

first of all, that kind of deepening in a 24 hour period would produce one hell of a wraparound effect/deformation zone formation and drawn back towards the NE coast w/strong NEG TILT at the 500mb level ... (SFC low would move basically due north) ... of course, my location along Coastal SC gets the shaft (dry slot) ...

otherwise, a ton of ATL moisture would get thrown right back into very cold air at the SFC and aloft, with CSI (conditional symmetrical instability)... (potential thundersnows), and despite being a progged fast mover, some areas would get crushed ... ASSUMING the 12z UKMET prog actually verified.

SF
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#17 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Dec 14, 2004 4:23 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150m.gif

That tells me temperatures would be in the 20's all the way to the outlying areas of Miami with widespread 10's throughout much of the southeast. This is nearly a week out so don't take those numbers too seriously - however, it seems like a distinct possibility that much of FL that doesn't see a hard freeze tonight will see one next week and/or Christmas week.
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#18 Postby chadtm80 » Tue Dec 14, 2004 4:30 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_850_150m.gif

That tells me temperatures would be in the 20's all the way to the outlying areas of Miami with widespread 10's throughout much of the southeast. This is nearly a week out so don't take those numbers too seriously - however, it seems like a distinct possibility that much of FL that doesn't see a hard freeze tonight will see one next week and/or Christmas week.

You will make MANY friends with that lol
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#19 Postby rainstorm » Tue Dec 14, 2004 5:23 pm

an out to sea storm dont count. nor do clippers. i am confident none of the big cities south of boston(nyc, dca, phi, bwi, mia) will see more than an inch before 25dec.
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#20 Postby Janie34 » Tue Dec 14, 2004 5:41 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
rainstorm wrote:the next 10 days should have a few clippers. no storms.


did anyone just hear that?


I heard it, but I just keep the past hurricane season in mind.

OTOH, if the flow remains N/NW from Canada and possibly beyond, it's difficult to see how much can get cooking, at least in my part of the world. Still, you can't entirely discount the Gulf. Not yet. I guess we'll see.
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