14 December 2004 00Z Global Models....wow

[rainstorm]

i remember well the jb forecast 1 day before the march 2001 superstorm was going to destroy se va. on the radio he said, severe coastal flooding, and heavy, wet, wind driven tree snapping snow. the next day: sunny and bright. no flooding, lots of sun, little wind, and no snapped trees. these lows often show up on models well south of where they actually end up. i would not be surprised if eastern new england got heavy snow though

[wxguy25]

Alright, lets NOT begin another JB bashfest.

[Scorpion]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_850_150m.gif

That tells me temperatures would be in the 20's all the way to the outlying areas of Miami with widespread 10's throughout much of the southeast. This is nearly a week out so don't take those numbers too seriously - however, it seems like a distinct possibility that much of FL that doesn't see a hard freeze tonight will see one next week and/or Christmas week.

Wow! So basically, much of FL can be in the teens??!! This is a record! The lowest temps ever experienced here were about 27! Imagine if it got to 20 here! With a windchill!! Right in time for Christmas!! Please oh please I hope this pans out. It would be amazing if this would be happen. Not to mention there is still quite a bit of bug cleansing to be done down here.

[rainstorm]

not a jb bash fest. twc had sc and nc buried originally in march 2001 before the inevitable move north of the clipper. i havent even heard what jb is saying about here this time, but i suppose i can listen in the morning and report back on the board.

wakefield not at all impressed:
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
UPR TROF SWINGS THRU ON FRIDAY AND MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
SUGGESTION OF RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE COMING THRU THE MID ATLC
REGION. ACCOMPANYING VORT MAX IS EITHER HIGHLY SHEARED OR PASSES TO
NORTH SO WL NOT INCLDUE POPS ATTM. GOOD TO SEE THE 12Z GFS BACK
OFF FROM ITS EARLIER OUTLYING STRONG COASTAL CYCLOGENSIS SOLN AS THIS
LEADS TO A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FCST GOING INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.
WEAKER SE CSTL LOW RIDES UP GULF STREAM AND SHUD KEEP ASSOCD PCPN
OFFSHORE. MODELS ALSO COMING INTO BTR AGREEMENT WITH DIGGING
ADDITIONAL UPR LVL ENERGY INTO MID ATLC REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHC (SILENT) RW- AND/OR SW- IN CASE ANY
WRAPARND MOISTURE IN COMBO WITH INCRSG INSTABILITY RESULTS IN SOME
LIGHT PCPN. THIS UPR LVL ENERGY/TROF LOOKS TO PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST ON TUE WITH CONTINUATION OF COLD/DRY CONDS.


counting on wrap-around moisture here is not a good bet. and im not saying no one will get heavy snow. eastern new england may get wind and snow

[PurdueWx80]

Wow! So basically, much of FL can be in the teens??!! This is a record! The lowest temps ever experienced here were about 27! Imagine if it got to 20 here! With a windchill!! Right in time for Christmas!! Please oh please I hope this pans out. It would be amazing if this would be happen. Not to mention there is still quite a bit of bug cleansing to be done down here.

Sorry, by the southeast I meant the panhandle and points north --- 20's would be possible all through the peninsula given a verification of that prognostication, though.

[Scorpion]

Oh, I guess thats alright. 20's is cold enough,especially down here.

[PurdueWx80]

i remember well the jb forecast 1 day before the march 2001 superstorm was going to destroy se va. on the radio he said, severe coastal flooding, and heavy, wet, wind driven tree snapping snow. the next day: sunny and bright. no flooding, lots of sun, little wind, and no snapped trees. these lows often show up on models well south of where they actually end up. i would not be surprised if eastern new england got heavy snow though

I didn't subscribe to Accuweather back then, but Joe talks about this screw up all the time and how no one lets it go. People make mistakes, so do computers - Joe is excellent at pattern recognition and often very good at forecasting big storms like this. He called the current cold weather weeks (months?) ago and is mentioning the 2001 storm when talking about next week's. Whatever, no one knows what will happen. The exciting part is seeing all the different model runs - the one thing that stands out in every model is the development of a bomb off the eastern seaboard. The 18Z GFS now slams Boston with a 1-2' snowstorm w/ near 1' in NYC and a bit less in DC - all a couple of days before Christmas.

[PurdueWx80]

Here is a very small snippet of what JB said in today's column - he's not making a forecast yet, but implying that there will be a big storm. He clearly recognizes his prior mistake and is quick to throw the judgement back in the face of those who criticize him.

But trying to pin down now where someone could get creamed with a foot or more is something I can't do yet. Obviously the threat grows north and east, but the lesson of March 2001 is there. Yes, someone is going to get a lot of snow. Whether it's in the big cities or not is tough to call.

Let's go back for a second to March 2001. The storm was a great one. But a 100-mile error from five days out, when people were saying it would never come up in the first place, resulted in what was thought of as a huge bust. Here we have, like 2001, a system that could be top 5 aloft. In other words, go back and look at maps and you will find that the upper intensity of the March 2001 storm was in the top 5 for that latitude at that time of the year. The GFS forecast for this now is in the top 5 of pre-solstice upper lows south of 40 north.

[rainstorm]

true, purdue. but like 2001, these systems always trend more and more north. if in boston, it could be big.