WOW. 12Z GFS Huge snowstorm TX GulfCoast to AL/FL GulfCoast!

[Guest]

Too bad its a day after christmas but still. This would be a huge dump of snow for the gulfcoast from Houston over to New Orleans and then to Mobile, AL.

Have a look!











Amazing if this was to verify!

[Brent]

WOWSER!!!!

Now just move it up a day.

[LAwxrgal]

How do you know this is snow? For all we know it could be a big rain event.

[Guest]

How do you know this is snow? For all we know it could be a big rain event.

Just follow the 540 line on the precip map and as well the O line on the other and thats your snow line!

[CaptinCrunch]

CaptinCrunch

[LAwxrgal]

I'd like to have some of that good herb the GFS is smoking.

[Brent]

The second image is a redux of the Blizzard of 1993.

I'm not holding my breath but it is interesting. Light snow would start on the afternoon of Christmas if it pans out.

[Guest]

I'd like to have some of that good herb the GFS is smoking.

LOL. Yeah me too! Who knows though. One thing for sure it does look to get very cold down that way next week!

[PurdueWx80]

Actually, you would typically follow the -4 isotherm at 850 mb for snow - the 540 thickness can be a general indicator of the rain-snow line, BUT low-level warm air always throws a mix into that. You would have to watch the 1000-850 thicknesses, 700-850 and so on, plus surface temperatures would have to be just right. For all we know that could be a sleet or freezing rain event.

[vbhoutex]

I'd like to have some of that good herb the GFS is smoking.

Whatever it is just keep giving it to it!! Eventually something has to verify!!!

Actually I've been watching this develop the last couple of days. I am becoming more and more convinced that there will at a minimum, be a MAJOR SEVERE COLD WEATHER EVENT for the Gulf Coast just after Christmas possibly starting as early as the 26th. Precipitation is the big question. How much will be available? Is it coming from a cut-off out of the SW or from a S/W riding the trough from the NW, or both? If it is the first or both, then this indeed does have a chance at verification. Best guess it that the cold will almost definitely be in place East of the Rockies with the trough further West than it is right now and early next week. This cold should be all the way far into the GOM by after Christmas and should hold on for several days and be deep enough to produce snow if the moisture is available. It will literally be coming out of the polar areas, ie Siberia, the N Pole, etc. This far out who knows, but it sure gives us something to talk about. If this does happen in the Gulf coast area, I am not sure I even want to be on the East coast once the low gets off the coast that far south and has a chance to develop a Nor'easter(my speculation only-not basing it on anything else at this point). Could we be talking a historic storm? Again the latter part of this is pure speculation on my part and nothing else. The Gulf coast portion does have a chance at verification.

For those much more in the know than me feel free to debunk me(nicely please). Just be aware there are many in the South that might want to come after you!! J/K!!!

[Guest]

Actually, you would typically follow the -4 isotherm at 850 mb for snow - the 540 thickness can be a general indicator of the rain-snow line, BUT low-level warm air always throws a mix into that. You would have to watch the 1000-850 thicknesses, 700-850 and so on, plus surface temperatures would have to be just right. For all we know that could be a sleet or freezing rain event.

-4 sence when?

[Johnny]

A sleet or freezing rain event seems more likely than a snow event but hey, it's been a strange year. The last big sleet storm we had down here was in January 1997.

[PurdueWx80]

Actually, you would typically follow the -4 isotherm at 850 mb for snow - the 540 thickness can be a general indicator of the rain-snow line, BUT low-level warm air always throws a mix into that. You would have to watch the 1000-850 thicknesses, 700-850 and so on, plus surface temperatures would have to be just right. For all we know that could be a sleet or freezing rain event.

-4 sence when?

From experience and simple meteorology, the rain-snow line often follows the -4 isotherm at 850. If it's at 0 that high up, that means the surface temps have a higher likelihood of being above zero - which basically translates to either melting snow or rain. If they are above zero at 850 but the surface is below then you get freezing rain and/or sleet.

[aggiecutter]

Of more immediate concern is the latest runs of the GFS, which has retrograded the weekend trough westerward with each of its last 3 runs. BTW, this is in line with its Ensembles. If this trend continues or holds the status quo of the 12z run, then much of the eastern half of Texas will go into the deep freeze this weekend. Originally, I thought just the NE corner of the state would get clipped, but now the cold is starting to look much more widespread and intense.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml

[southerngale]

Is anyone picking this up besides the GFS?

[PurdueWx80]

Is anyone picking this up besides the GFS?

None of the other models go out that far, so we'll have nothing to compare it to for another day or so (once the Euro and Canadian 240-hr forecasts are at the same time as the GFS 240-hr). According to that map, most of the precipitation in TX would not be snow, because the precipitation would've fallen before the coldest air crashed in. It's exciting, but not worth worrying about at the moment.

[CaptinCrunch]

Heres the deal folks, the GFS is much like the "Boy who cryed Wolf" because it has lied so much that it gets to where nobody beleives it anymore and then when it starts telling the truth nobody will beleive it.

Well, here comes the BIG BAD WOLF!!!

[southerngale]

Worrying? I'm hoping!

Thanks for the answer. I'll keep on wishing!

[JenyEliza]

Heres the deal folks, the GFS is much like the "Boy who cryed Wolf" because it has lied so much that it gets to where nobody beleives it anymore and then when it starts telling the truth noboby will beleive it.

Well, here comes the BIG BAD WOLF!!!

I quite like that analogy.

I am reminded of Superstorm 1993--no one believed the early predictions, and even right up to the evening of the storm--people went about their business as if nothing was coming.

It was shocking to many to wake up to that much snow...and not much to eat in their house. Except me....I felt it in my bones, and headed to the grocery store when I got off work that evening!

[Guest]

Is anyone picking this up besides the GFS?

None of the other models go out that far, so we'll have nothing to compare it to for another day or so (once the Euro and Canadian 240-hr forecasts are at the same time as the GFS 240-hr). According to that map, most of the precipitation in TX would not be snow, because the precipitation would've fallen before the coldest air crashed in. It's exciting, but not worth worrying about at the moment.

I 100% DISAGREE IF THAT WAS TO VERIFY ABOVE! Not sure where you learned your stuff but you are so very wrong.