Tropical Storm Talas at WPAC

[P.K.]

WTPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W (TALAS) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z5 --- NEAR 12.0N3 134.1E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N3 134.1E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 12.4N7 133.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 12.9N2 132.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 13.2N6 131.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 13.5N9 130.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 14.8N3 128.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 12.1N4 133.8E5.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 31W (TALAS) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP DELINEATION IN THE OUTFLOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, AND DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS DISORGANIZED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z5 IS 13 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PHNC FOR ADDI­TIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z0, 160900Z6, 161500Z3 AND 162100Z0.

[HurricaneBill]

Looks like Talas isn't quite finished just yet.

[HURAKAN]

Talas is coming back from the grave and now reach once again 45 knots.

[P.K.]

C. THE INTENSITY OF TS 31W HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BY TAUS 36 TO 48. AS THE MSWT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD, TS 31W WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND START TO WEAKEN AS MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DISSIPATES AND DECOUPLES THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC.

[P.K.]

C. THE INTENSITY OF TS 31W HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. BY TAU 48 EXPECT TS 31W TO BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.