Cyclogenesis/Bombogenesis potential Sunday-Monday

[WXBUFFJIM]

Looking at the situation this afternoon depicts a very interesting situation coming up in about 4-5 days as a deep upper trough establishes itself. This may result in a potential phasing of the polar and subtropical branch of the jet off the Carolina coast on Sunday. Beyond that, the potential for surface cyclogenesis or possibly in extreme cases bombogenesis may become real. This could mean a potential of gale to storm force winds from the Virginia Coast northward up through the Jersey Shore, Long Island, and the New England coast Sunday night into Monday.

As for precipitation, it appears the majority of the precipitation as of this update will be closer to the coast and mainly in the form of snow from the Virginia/North Carolina border northward up the Delmarva and the Jersey Shore Sunday night into Monday and northward from there into New England Monday night into Tuesday. Complicating the matters with this situation will be strong winds near the coast and inland with gusts possibly in the 35-55 mph range from southeast Virginia northeast ward into south central New England. These above solutions are only assuming that this system develops about a hundred miles offshore and bombs out into what GFS is advertising as a 968 mb low on Monday. While the chances of this are possible, it's still a long shot and the certainity in 4-5 days is not guaranteed.

This means folks along the Mid Atlantic and northeast coast line need to be on the alert for what could come our way Sunday night into Tuesday. The only saving grace for coastal sections will be low astronomical tide levels expected during this event, which could minimize coastal flooding a bit as opposed to if tides were astronomically higher. But this storm still have potential to cause moderate tidal flooding from the Mid Atlantic coast into New England, particularly in east and northeats facing beaches. Exact snow amounts are still up in the air and exactly how strong the winds will be with this system is still a bit unclear. But both aspects could potentially be significant. As a result continue to monitor this situation and as we approach the end of the week, a more clearer picture could possibly come out of this.

What makes this storm so significant potentially is as mentioned earlier a potential phasing of the polar and subtropical branch of the jet stream. Two problems come from this. First is colder air will likely be in place. Secondly the subtropical branch has a subtropical connection that extends from Hawaii all the way up through the Gulf Of Mexico and the eastern seaboard. This is why it's important that we monitor this situation as again it could possibly be the first major winter weather event for the megalopolis this season and yes that does include the coast. Virginia Beach, Ocean City, Atlantic City, Sandy Hook, Montauk Point, Cape Cod, and Portland, Maine, keep an eye on this one.

Jim

[Anonymous]

Great post, WXBUFFJIM.

Hey rainstorm, don't you live in Va. Beach?

If you do, you'd better batten down the hatches for 40-55 mph winds and considerable blowing/drifting snow!!

I just noticed NWS has bumped up the chc of snow showers (yeah, only SHSN, nothing that'll accumulate) from 30% to 50% Sun night thru Mon. Hmmm.......well I'll suspend any potential excitement for now. Probably only a flurry or two at best for NE VA.

But HELLO VA COAST and NE!!!!! Can you say Gale-driven snow?

-Jeb

[stormman]

unfortanely I dont see significant snow from philly south. I think philly and dc will be lucky to get an inch.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Great post, WXBUFFJIM.

Hey rainstorm, don't you live in Va. Beach?

If you do, you'd better batten down the hatches for 40-55 mph winds and considerable blowing/drifting snow!!

I just noticed NWS has bumped up the chc of snow showers (yeah, only SHSN, nothing that'll accumulate) from 30% to 50% Sun night thru Mon. Hmmm.......well I'll suspend any potential excitement for now. Probably only a flurry or two at best for NE VA.

But HELLO VA COAST and NE!!!!! Can you say Gale-driven snow?

-Jeb

RAINSTORM WINTER STORM ALERT!!!! Better batten down the hatches if this comes true rainstorm. Will see how this goes. It looks more like a coastal entity. In the case of philly, washington and baltimore, that could mean more snow southeast of those cities and less snow north and west as opposed to the other way around. In any rate, winds sure look noticeable.

Jim

[Stephanie]

It'll be fun trying to go to work in Atlantic City.

Then again, I could always stay home and wrap gifts!!

[bostonweatherman]

how about in Boston? Snow in feet? Blizzard conditions?