NWS Houston-Strong Cold Front Sat-Next week very interesting

[southerngale]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 AM CST THU DEC 16 2004

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN WHICH IS DEVELOPING ACROSS SE TX WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS AIRMASS BECOMES SATURATED. MODELS
INDICATE THAT WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED FROM 12Z TO
21Z SO THIS IS WHEN THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOULD OCCUR.
EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS (1/4 TO 1/2 INCH) WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS TO NEAR AN INCH POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. HAVE GONE
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE SOUTHEAST...AND LIKELY OVER THE NORTH/WEST
ZONES TODAY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
WATERS. TEMPS WILL WARM VERY LITTLE TODAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS/RAIN.

ETA/GFS DIFFER ON WHEN ALL THE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE MOVE OUT OF SE
TX. FOLLOWED THE ETA SOLUTION SINCE IT HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON
THIS SYSTEM ALL ALONG. 500 MB TROF AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT SO KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THIS EVENING WITH LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT SO KEPT TEMPS
ABOVE GUIDANCE. ON FRIDAY...HAVE LINGERING POPS CENTRAL/SOUTH IN THE
MORNING THEN WILL SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ETA
BRINGS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY. ETA MOS GUIDANCE
NOW HAS POPS FOR SATURDAY BUT KEPT PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST AS
EXPECT PWS WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH AT THIS POINT.

00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF SHOWING A STRONG COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL ORIGINATE IN NORTHERN CANADA. IN FACT...GFS
SHOWS 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -3 TO -6 OVER THE AREA 00Z MONDAY.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS CLOSER TO MEX NUMBERS FOR SUN-MON ACCORDINGLY.
WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY INTERESTING. THE COLD AIRMASS
WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH RETURN FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED. SHOULD SEE WARMER TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT RAIN THESE
PERIODS WITH 850 MB WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. IN THE MEANTIME
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE PILING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/ROCKIES AS A
DEEP LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA. SOME OF THIS COLD AIR
COULD EVENTUALLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS...POSSIBLY DURING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TOO SOON TO TELL BUT SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCH.

[Yankeegirl]

Look, its a bear watch again... Cold.. I didnt notice accuweather picking this up... hum...

[vbhoutex]

RUT ROH!!!!BEAR WATCH!!!!!

Frank Billingsley actually mentioned the S word last night for our area for Christmas and/or the day after!!!! This is still too far out to call, but the runs are becoming scaringly consistent with insisting on this bitter cold making it all the way to the deep south. The first shot is going to be this weekend, which was originally expected to be, and the main core will still be East of TX. However, as NWS states, it looks like it will be "freezing cold" hear in East and Southeast TX also Sunday/Monday. Then we see a "warm up" and then an even stronger shot is in the progs for Christmas day or the day after reaching again deep into TX and possibly having some moisture available for precipitation possibly in the form of winter type precip. Stay tuned, but don't hold your breath for the S word. The temps are likely to verify deep into the 20's or lower for our area. We are talking cold air being transported from the coldest area of the world all the way to the GOM.

[southerngale]

I'm all too familiar with getting my hopes up, only to have them shot down. Well, at least it's snowing on my monitor!