Get ready new England....BOMBS AWAY

[wxguy25]

Updated Wxblog section. MAJOR winter storm New England at least.

click the link

http://www.geocities.com/usafrw/usablog.html

[air360]

your link dont work buddy

[wxguy25]

your link dont work buddy

check back again in an hour or so.

[Yankeegirl]

It works for me!

I have family in Rhode Island, Woonsocket to be exact... Do you have any clue on the amount of snow they are expected?

[weatherlover427]

I have family in Buffalo, NY and Portland, ME ... hope it doesn't get too bad for them.

[wxguy25]

It works for me!

I have family in Rhode Island, Woonsocket to be exact... Do you have any clue on the amount of snow they are expected?

I generally don’t like to throw around exact snowfall figures this early in the game though if I had to I would say 12” or more. please don’t get stuck on that total, it’s subject to A LOT of change in the next few days. I will be able to provide a much more specific forecast once I figure out what the s/w that I discussed on the blog page is going to do probably SAT or SUN.

[wxguy25]

I have family in Buffalo, NY and Portland, ME ... hope it doesn't get too bad for them.

Portland, ME-- it might get REAL BAD.

BUF will probably see little impact from this.

[weatherlover427]

So no lake effect this time?

(sorry the real tech like stuff is beyond me )

[wxguy25]

So no lake effect this time?

(sorry the real tech like stuff is beyond me )

Oh, Im sorry, Josh. I thought you were talking about the effect from the storm that looks like its going to pound New England. From that i don't think BUF will see much if any synoptic snowfall.

The lake effect aspect of things will be another story entirely w/ (at least ) -15 C air coming over the northeast as the Coastal low pulls away and the upper tough swings over the region.

[Stormsfury]

for the 3rd day in a row, the GFS continues to advertise snow showers (at least SN-) as far south as Southern GA/SC/NC ... in fact, QPF outputs are beginning to get a little heavier with each run for South Carolina ...

The 00z GFS continues to trend ever so slightly west with each run, and well, take note, winter's about to enter possibly with a GRAND entrance ...

SF

[Brent]

for the 3rd day in a row, the GFS continues to advertise snow showers (at least SN-) as far south as Southern GA/SC/NC ... in fact, QPF outputs are beginning to get a little heavier with each run for South Carolina ...

I love it. BRING IT ON! A little heavier presumably snow showers here Sunday Afternoon on the 0z run.

[weatherlover427]

So no lake effect this time?

(sorry the real tech like stuff is beyond me )

Oh, Im sorry, Josh. I thought you were talking about the effect from the storm that looks like its going to pound New England. From that i don't think BUF will see much if any synoptic snowfall.

The lake effect aspect of things will be another story entirely w/ (at least ) -15 C air coming over the northeast as the Coastal low pulls away and the upper tough swings over the region.

Obviously anyone worth their money will know that BUF gets a grip load of lake effect snow in most winters. I am just trying to figure out if the flow is going to set up right with this one or not.

[stormman]

goog map wxguy, but I would prob shift north by about 100 miles, you have the mod the number 2 going down to northern delaware, with philly right in the middle of it, I think that number 2 should start north of philly, I dont think philly we see more then 1-2 tops. But I could be wrong.

[Stephanie]

Great analysis!

I'm in the "area of greatest uncertainty" as usual.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There will be no Nor'easter for the East coast. Intill Portland Oregon gets a big snowstorm/Cold spell for Chirstmas. Lets be fair!!! It never hardly snows here.

[wthrmilagro]

There will be no Nor'easter for the East coast. Intill Portland Oregon gets a big snowstorm/Cold spell for Chirstmas. Lets be fair!!! It never hardly snows here.

"It never hardly snows here." Hmm, does this mean it never barely gets cold in Flor- I- DA.

[wxguy25]

Update on the Northeast event:



http://www.geocities.com/usafrw/usablog.html

[therock1811]

Its down for the next hour, or at least some of the picture links are.

[wxguy25]

Its down for the next hour, or at least some of the picture links are.

it will be back up soon.

[wxguy25]

I also want to mention that the energy which is going to phase over the EUS (an appendage breaking off of the PV, and the other piece is still over Siberia) to create this event is CURRENTLY in places where RAOB coverage is rather sparse so I would not trust the details of any model solution. Pay attention to trends instead of the actual specifics of the output from run to run.

And for you GFS huggers, remember the GFS cold bias will cause it to push systems further out to sea.