The "McFarland Effect" possibility by 12/21

#41 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Tue Dec 14, 2004 1:30 pm

I know there are several other notable Snows for South Texas but I only posted North Texas events. I can't remember the year (1800's) but I do know that the biggest snow for S.TX and N.O LA. was around 2 feet and it was so cold that people could drive out on the lakes for they where froze over solid.

Janie34 · #42 Postby **Janie34** » Tue Dec 14, 2004 1:56 pm

That may have been the Great Artic Outbreak of 1899 (if I recall correctly.) Mobile's temperature hovered around 0, and that was downtown. Without a doubt it was subzero away from the city. That also may have been the year that ice was spotted flowing down the Mississippi River near New Orleans, for only the second time in recorded history.

Stormsfury · #43 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Dec 14, 2004 3:17 pm

Janie34 wrote:That may have been the Great Artic Outbreak of 1899 (if I recall correctly.) Mobile's temperature hovered around 0, and that was downtown. Without a doubt it was subzero away from the city. That also may have been the year that ice was spotted flowing down the Mississippi River near New Orleans, for only the second time in recorded history.

The 1895 event listed above that produced the record two feet of snow in Southeast TX. and SW and Southern Louisiana ... but you're correct WRT to the 1899 Great Arctic Outbreak and Blizzard of 1899 producing the record cold temperatures ... Florida's all-time record low of -2º in Tallahassee, FL remains the record to this day and the only time in recorded history temperatures fell below 0º in the Sunshine State....

I know there are several other notable Snows for South Texas but I only posted North Texas events. I can't remember the year (1800's) but I do know that the biggest snow for S.TX and N.O LA. was around 2 feet and it was so cold that people could drive out on the lakes for they where froze over solid.

AggieSpirit · #44 Postby **AggieSpirit** » Tue Dec 14, 2004 5:47 pm

I know that Tallahassee was at -2, but I would be willing to bet the the far northwest corner of the Florida panhandle was lower than that, based upon the historic maps I saw on your site.

Janie34 · #45 Postby **Janie34** » Tue Dec 14, 2004 5:51 pm

The 1895 event listed above that produced the record two feet of snow in Southeast TX. and SW and Southern Louisiana ... but you're correct WRT to the 1899 Great Arctic Outbreak and Blizzard of 1899 producing the record cold temperatures ... Florida's all-time record low of -2º in Tallahassee, FL remains the record to this day and the only time in recorded history temperatures fell below 0º in the Sunshine State....

Yah, I get those two confused sometimes. :oops:

Yankeegirl · #46 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Tue Dec 14, 2004 5:54 pm

Supposed to get down to 24 here tonight....

:thermo:

#47 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Tue Dec 14, 2004 7:51 pm

Just out of Curiousity, just WHAT did MacFarland do to get his name attached to a pattern that forecasters have known about (along with it's potential for severe cold) since operational upper air analyses became available?

Steve
:?:

#48 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Wed Dec 15, 2004 11:13 am

I would start checking your local NWS for updates at least 2x a day thru this weekend.

JenyEliza · #49 Postby **JenyEliza** » Wed Dec 15, 2004 11:36 am

CaptinCrunch wrote:I would start checking your local NWS for updates at least 2x a day thru this weekend.

I've been trying to get onto my local NWS site all morning, and can't. I think there are a LOT of people doing what you suggested and the NWS servers are being overloaded.

There was an article in the Atlanta Journal online about Snow Sunday/Monday, so looks like everyone's jumping on this bandwagon!

SNOW, SNOW, SNOW, please! :thermo:

#50 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Wed Dec 15, 2004 11:45 am

CaptinCrunch wrote:I would start checking your local NWS for updates at least 2x a day thru this weekend.

How do I get to my local NWS site?

#51 Postby **gboudx** » Wed Dec 15, 2004 11:51 am

LAwxrgal wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:I would start checking your local NWS for updates at least 2x a day thru this weekend.

How do I get to my local NWS site?

For you it's:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/LIX/

#52 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Wed Dec 15, 2004 11:53 am

gboudx wrote:
LAwxrgal wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:I would start checking your local NWS for updates at least 2x a day thru this weekend.

How do I get to my local NWS site?

For you it's:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/LIX/

Thanks!

#53 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Wed Dec 15, 2004 12:10 pm

JenyEliza wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:I would start checking your local NWS for updates at least 2x a day thru this weekend.

I've been trying to get onto my local NWS site all morning, and can't. I think there are a LOT of people doing what you suggested and the NWS servers are being overloaded.

There was an article in the Atlanta Journal online about Snow Sunday/Monday, so looks like everyone's jumping on this bandwagon!

SNOW, SNOW, SNOW, please!

Well I guess I just drive this BANDWAGON all the way to the Coast!!! :lol:

#54 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Thu Dec 16, 2004 9:15 am

Ok here is a few MRF forecast models for Christmas week.

Sunday pm

Monday am

The above model show the East Coast Snow Storm moving into the Boston MA area.

(above) Here comes's the Polor Express, this will be the BIG Artic push I have been forecasting since last week. (The McFarland Effect)

The Day after Christmas we might see some light snow across the North TX area.

(above) None this get's interesting on Dec 26 the Artic air is still with us and look to the west over AZ, see that upper low spinning our way, that should be crossing TX by Tuesday, now depending how fast the polor air starts to pull east we could see some big snows from Midland over to Austin and Northward to D/FW with light to mod snow/sleet for the Houston area.

Please post any ideas you have about this!!

Thanks

cctxhurricanewatcher · #55 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Thu Dec 16, 2004 9:24 am

Nothing but a barbed wire fence in the Dakotas to stop this baby! :lol:

cctxhurricanewatcher · #56 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Thu Dec 16, 2004 9:37 am

If this comes true I maybe able to turn on my sprinkler outside and creat my own winter wonderland for my kids just like I did in the 1980's for myself.

#57 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Dec 16, 2004 9:55 am

Cap'n I think you pretty well have it covered!! As always with these systems the timing/phasing(if it happens) will be everything as to who gets what and when. As the models look right now most of Texas could be in for some flakiness at some point during the Christmas weekend. It does look like almost no matter what happens that your area could get some wrap around from the storm heading East. We may be too far south for that one. If the trof retrogrades a little more west and we get a S/W coming down the trof on top of the ULL coming in from the West it could be even more interesting. Right now I pretty much have to agree with your assessments. I noticed that it looks almost like the developing storm running up the West side of the Apps is going to "cut off" that southern portion of the polar air core and swing it in around behind the storm(if that can even happen). That could get VERY interesting. Comments form pros and those better versed than I on this are encouraged. All in all it is appearing that the entire Eastern 2/3 of the nation may have a week to two weeks to talk about for a while to come.

#58 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Dec 16, 2004 5:51 pm

vbhoutex wrote:Cap'n I think you pretty well have it covered!! As always with these systems the timing/phasing(if it happens) will be everything as to who gets what and when. As the models look right now most of Texas could be in for some flakiness at some point during the Christmas weekend. It does look like almost no matter what happens that your area could get some wrap around from the storm heading East. We may be too far south for that one. If the trof retrogrades a little more west and we get a S/W coming down the trof on top of the ULL coming in from the West it could be even more interesting. Right now I pretty much have to agree with your assessments. I noticed that it looks almost like the developing storm running up the West side of the Apps is going to "cut off" that southern portion of the polar air core and swing it in around behind the storm(if that can even happen). That could get VERY interesting. Comments form pros and those better versed than I on this are encouraged. All in all it is appearing that the entire Eastern 2/3 of the nation may have a week to two weeks to talk about for a while to come.

Anyone??? Am I that far off with my thoughts???

Stormsfury · #59 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Dec 16, 2004 5:55 pm

AggieSpirit wrote:I know that Tallahassee was at -2, but I would be willing to bet the the far northwest corner of the Florida panhandle was lower than that, based upon the historic maps I saw on your site.

wouldn't be surprised, but since data records weren't exactly a dime a dozen, all we can do is speculate.

#60 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Dec 16, 2004 6:09 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
AggieSpirit wrote:I know that Tallahassee was at -2, but I would be willing to bet the the far northwest corner of the Florida panhandle was lower than that, based upon the historic maps I saw on your site.

wouldn't be surprised, but since data records weren't exactly a dime a dozen, all we can do is speculate.

I swear I remember seeing somewhere that it was -7 in Crestview(which always is colder than surrounding areas due to some elevation above the norm for that area), but I can't pinpoint where I have seen that nor do I have the time to search for it.

The "McFarland Effect" possibility by 12/21

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