Local met says major storm?

[therock1811]

This was yesterday's What's Up with Weather e-news from the local Fox station. Their met, Rich Apuzzo, said here and last night a major storm is on the way here. This is the same one that will produce the snow and wind over the northeast. BTW you can get this for free at fox19.com.





It has been a dramatic pattern change, and the shift to colder air is not finished yet. The biggest arctic blast in many years will be crashing into the Midwest, Ohio Valley and the southeastern United States late this weekend with record cold temperatures expected…and snow could fall in northern Florida!



It’s not often that we get into a pattern like this, but it’s something I have been expecting and predicting for many months. How many of you heard about an El Nino developing and how that might lead to a milder winter here? You didn’t hear that from me, but I can assure you that very few people were expecting bitter cold air to dominate the eastern United States this winter. It is important to note, however, that one or two blasts of arctic air hardly represents the entire winter and we have a long time to go before this one is in the record books, but this trend has been developing for months, and years, and I have been telling you about it for a long time. Once again, you’re the most informed weather enthusiasts in the Tri-State.



So what’s going on? We have seen a shift from a west-southwest flow in our jet stream (winds aloft that guide the movement and development of storms) to one from the northwest. In the winter, that kind of change is big because it taps the coldest air in North America, originating in northern Canada near and north of the Arctic Circle. We will also get “cross-polar” winds in this weather pattern, and cross-polar winds are winds which bring extremely bitter air from northern Russia where temperatures at night have been down to 50 or 60 below zero in recent weeks. This weekend we will get a real taste of bitter cold arctic air, which if this were January and snow was on the ground, I would be talking about sub-zero highs and lows of 10 to 20 below zero here! It’s early in the season and we don’t have snow on the ground, but by Sunday a strong storm will develop across the Ohio Valley, and it will bring the coldest air since last January to the eastern United States. In fact, for some areas of the south, this will be the coldest in decades and will likely set some records. The air will be cold enough for snow to fall in northern Florida by Sunday night and early Monday!



Here’s what you can expect across the Tri-State. Clouds will increase as the storm approaches on Saturday and light snow will be possible by Saturday evening. Highs will be in the mid 30s on Saturday. Light snow or flurries will continue Saturday night with minor accumulations possible as temperatures fall to near 30 by daybreak on Sunday. On Sunday this storm will get much stronger. Winds will increase and temperatures will be falling through the day on howling northwest winds. Light snow or snow showers will continue, with blowing snow and bitter wind chills. There may be an inch or two of snow by Sunday evening, but the biggest weather story will be temperatures falling into the teens with wind chills near zero by evening.



By Monday, this storm may be producing a blizzard on the east coast, threatening areas from Boston to Washington D.C. with heavy, blinding snow and bitter temperatures. The exact track of the storm will determine who is hit the hardest, and when. The snow showers will end late Monday in our area, but the cold will remain with highs only in the mid or upper 20s. It is very early, but the morning model guidance is also showing a Christmas Eve snowstorm in the Midwest. I will have more on that in coming days. In the mean time, make sure to tune in tonight…and tell your friends to watch too. I will have the latest on this weekend blast of cold and snow and the threat a monster east coast storm…and the new possibility of a snowstorm late next week. It’s all on the Ten O’Clock News, and as always, you heard it here first.



Have a great day, keep your eyes on the sky and enjoy the changing weather!

[Miss Mary]

Thanks for posting this Jeremy. I received the same wx update from Rich Apuzzo. This system bears watching. All local Mets are saying we could receive accumulations. Word of caution - Rich Apuzzo sometimes is too optimistic for snowfall predictions, at least for Cincinnati. But since the other 3 local stations are following suit now, I think we can believe we will have accumulations.

Mary

[therock1811]

The question is how much? Right now, most are going with 1-2". But, I will go out on a serious limb here. I would venture to say at least 3". I don't believe any of the mets are taking whatever falls on Saturday night or Sunday night into account.

[michaelwmoss]

I can imagine after this colder, artic blast comes down that there will be MAJOR Lake Effect Snows downwind all of the lakes over the weekend and into early next week. As for everyone else, this is going to be one whale of a wind and snow maker. Storm totals of 6-12 inches will be definately likely across many portions of the Northeast and several inches will be possible down into the south even. I don't know about Accumulating snow in North Florida but I definately think they will see some snow mixed with rain and strong T-storms in Florida.

[Skywatch_NC]

With my luck Raleigh will probably just end up with a few flurries...

On second thought there is some hope according to the NWS:

Sunday Night:

Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of light snow. Lows in the mid 20s.

Monday:

Mostly cloudy. A chance of light snow in the morning. Breezy with highs in the mid 30s. Chance of light snow 30 percent.


Eric

[therock1811]

BTW, I will put up a first call map sometime around 9pm which will have more definitive amounts.

[CINCINNATISUN]

[Miss Mary]

:D

Well, look what the Arctic Blast blew in!!!!

Long time no see stranger!!! How've ya been Steve? Got your snowblower all ready? I do! And a new shovel this year. Finally broke down and bought a new one. Just a simple, plastic push type shovel, perfect for one or two inch snowfalls.

This is shaping up to be a very busy weekend for my family. So for once, and I can't believe I'm saying this, I don't want this to be a major snowstorm! We have many places to be and then we're having a xmas party on Saturday night. Hope people won't be reluctant to venture out.

Mary

[Guest]

Let me add as well you guys will probably be seeing some lake effect snows as well from all this. A fetch off of MI.
And the system for later next week is a tough call but alot of people from Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, Columbus, Cincy, Nashville, just may be seing a Christmas eve/Christmas day snowstorm which i see this guy down there hinted on.

Suffice to say alot of places from as far south as the gulfcoast perhaps north to Canada may be seeing a white Christmas.

[CINCINNATISUN]

Hello Mary and Eric, happy holidays everyone !! Thanks for
the message Mary, I've been fine. My snowblower is ready
to blow, just needs fresh gasoline and it should fire right up.

Hope your weekend goes well Mary ! My mom and I are visiting
my 97 yr old cousin Sunday at Westpark Ret. Village at Ferguson
& Queen City, he sold his house in Price Hill and moved there last
month.

Steve

[Gord_on_snow]

Shame i'm going home to the UK for 2 weeks starting this monday

Never mind, a couple of inches of snow this weekend would be a nice thing to have just before i fly out. Glad we're exchanging flights in Cincinnati and not New York or somewhere where there could be weather problems on Monday.

I bet i'll miss all the seasons best weather and it'll be mild and wet again by the time i return on the 5th January!

[therock1811]

BTW, I will put up a first call map sometime around 9pm which will have more definitive amounts.

Unfortunately I cannot figure out how to get my image sized right. So, I can't do a map right now. But I do have basic ideas for you.

Currently, I am calling for:

1-3" over areas from say Eastern KY north and west to NW Indiana, and through most of southern and central OH as well.

3-6" in a 50 mile wide, 100 mile long swath trailing SE from the lakes.

As for the northeast. I would say right now the heaviest snow will be over E MA/RI/E ME/SE VT. Amount forecast will come tomorrow night or early Saturday morning.

[breeze]

Out of three major stations in Nashville, two
are actually calling for "snow showers" on Sunday, but,
since TN is so hard to forecast, NOBODY is sticking their
neck out on accumulation amounts, if any! Nashville NWS
isn't even mentioning snow - just the blast of cold! Hmmm...
maybe closer to Sunday, it may change here...?

[Miss Mary]

All I can say is I hope Cincy is in for the 1-3 range. That I can handle. Come Monday morning, let it snow like crazy. I just need to get thru 2 busy days!!!

And a white xmas would be nice for folks in this region. By then 99.9% of us would have our shopping done!

Mary

[therock1811]

Right now I'm sticking with that call for Cincy, as it appears we may see rain mixing in at the onset. May have to up that by 1-2", which all told would mean 2-5", heaviest north and west of the Cincinnati metro area. Stay tuned!

[therock1811]

Alright...here's a map to go with this.

Light blue west of the apps means 1-3", possible lake effect.
Darkest blue along the coast means heavy snow, on the order of say 6-10".
Medium blue coming off the lakes means 3-6" at LEAST. This is mainly LES.
And finally, the aqua blue east of the apps from NC all the way up to ME means light accumulation possible. But no more than 3" is likely anywhere in that area.