Get ready new England....BOMBS AWAY

[bostonweatherman]

what are you basing your forecast on?

12z ECMWF, bringing the 12z GFS back to the coast because of the bias? Combo? Gut feel?

(I really love the map if it pans out...!)

[wxguy25]

what are you basing your forecast on?

12z ECMWF, bringing the 12z GFS back to the coast because of the bias? Combo? Gut feel?

(I really love the map if it pans out...!)

I have my ways. They DO NOT include Gut-casting though.

On another note, watch the follow-up s/w coming eastward on the tail of the PV appendage that drops in and initiates the phasing over the EUS. This would act as a KICKER and if it follows the AJ s/w too closely we could be talking about the 500mb low developing too far east (if it develops) which would result in the SFC low being captured too late for SOME of the places that I have in the orange 10” section on my map. I believe this could prove VERY CRITICAL in determining the track of the AJ s/w and ultimately the outcome of the event as a whole.

The 18z GFS look like first class crap (but hey, when is it ever not? Right?) The s/w will not dig all the way to the NC/SC coast before lifting out/closing off. The pattern is Nowhere near amplified enough for that to happen and furthermore, the upstream kicker s/w would act to prohibit this as well. Plus the lack of a 50-50 low and Greenland block to suppress the height field and keep the s/w to the south indicates that this solution is WRONG.

http://www.geocities.com/allwx11/gfs_500_102l.jpg

[Chris the Weather Man]

Great Analysis, Wxguy. Its a dang shame we don't have the 50/50 Low....... But anyhow, in the NYC area, how much could we be seeing ( yes, I know a Damn Weenie question)

[wxguy25]

Great Analysis, Wxguy. Its a dang shame we don't have the 50/50 Low....... But anyhow, in the NYC area, how much could we be seeing ( yes, I know a Damn Weenie question)

It is a Damn shame we Don't...but hey thats life in the I-95 corridor.

Anyway, I think NYC could see up to 6". There is a better chance to exceed that mark further east. There could be a heck of a snowfall gradient between Northeast Jersey through the Five Boroughs and into Western LI.

Im convinced that Eastern LI (including MUCH of Suffolk county) will see over 6" at the minimum and perhaps over a foot especially toward Riverhead and Montauk, Gardeners Island, and Block island since the SLP area will probably pass east of the Benchmark. that's a GOOD for those areas. NOT GOOD for folks farther west

But getting back to what I was saying before about the snowfall gradient. I would not be shocked to see Folks in Essex Morris, UNion, Bergen and Passaic counties in NJ see as little as 2-4" but folks in say Queens and Nassau county, LI see 6-10". A change of as much as 4-6" over a distance of 20-50 Miles. That is the nature of the situation, and quite a common occurrence during a Miller B event.

The idea is that this is NOT going to be a classic major east coast snowstorm, but it will dump VERY impressive totals from Central and eastern LI northeastward into Eastern Maine. Yes the B WORD is needed here -- BLIZZARD for those areas.

[wxguy25]

The 12z UKMET is very interesting. Jumps on the lead s/w which induces SFC cyclogenesis along the Southeast coast (off of FL) at 60hrs and then deepens it below 999mb out well east of the NC outer banks so that as the AJ s/w drops in and phases w/ the lead s/w, it catches the SFC low and results in rapid intensification (bombogenesis). There is going to be a heck of a baroclinic zone which sets up along the coast and waters are warm—suggesting that latent heat release could compound the potential for explosive intensification.

There are a lot of possibilities, and as I said, the energy right now is over places where real-time data is poor, so I wouldn’t put much stock in any one model solution until the energy gets over locations where RAOB coverage is sufficient. After that, we will be able to get a better fix on the event.

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_ame ... _panel.gif
http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_ame ... _panel.gif

The 12z GGEM looks similar.

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_am ... _panel.gif
http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_am ... _panel.gif

both of these SLP tracks would exclusively favor coastal locations for the heaviest accumulations.

[Chris the Weather Man]

We will get our turn next time... for a Major Snowstorm, for now, I would take 6".... And in New England, they can see as much as 18"


By the way, I would take a Miller A... No one gets Screwed!

[wxguy25]

We will get our turn next time... for a Major Snowstorm, for now, I would take 6".... And in New England, they can see as much as 18"


By the way, I would take a Miller A... No one gets Screwed!

Yeah, someone could see 20" out of this (probably someplace in SE Maine or out on the Cape/ extreme SE New England.

[Chris the Weather Man]

The Kennebunks, they should do REALLY Well.....

[Dave C]

Thanks for the awesome graphics WX Guy. Funny thing, the last forecast I heard this am before I went to work the forecaster seemed to be playing down the event. He mentioned a kicker which would push system out faster and a farther east track. He's pretty good (Barry Burbank ch4 Boston). Keep the updates and maps coming as this thing gets closer!

[wxguy25]

Thanks for the awesome graphics WX Guy. Fummy thing, the last forecast I heard this am before I went to work the forecaster seemed to be playing down the event. He mentioned a kicker which would push system out faster and a farther east track. He's pretty good (Barry Burbank ch4 Boston). Keep the updates and maps coming as this thing gets closer!

I agree w/ him. that s/w is the biggest complicating factor. If we took a second though to assess the synoptic pattern over the US, NA and the North Atlantic, Its NOT ideal for a Major east coast snowstorm. The PNA ridge is not that amplified, there is NO Greenland Block or 50-50 low, plenty of PAC energy coming through and a clearly defined kicker right on the heels of the AJ s/w as it breaks off from the PV.

If you go back through the Kocin Book, you will find that MOST of the big ones for the EUS have occurred in synoptically simple patterns. there have been exceptions--I'll use JAN 2000 as an example here, but that event didn't have much of an effect on PHL, NYC, or BOS. it was MAINLY a BWI/ south problem. 20" at CLT and RDU!! 12" at DCA if memory serves me correct.

[Stormsfury]

Thanks for the awesome graphics WX Guy. Fummy thing, the last forecast I heard this am before I went to work the forecaster seemed to be playing down the event. He mentioned a kicker which would push system out faster and a farther east track. He's pretty good (Barry Burbank ch4 Boston). Keep the updates and maps coming as this thing gets closer!

I agree w/ him. that s/w is the biggest complicating factor. If we took a second though to assess the synoptic pattern over the US, NA and the North Atlantic, Its NOT ideal for a Major east coast snowstorm. The PNA ridge is not that amplified, there is NO Greenland Block or 50-50 low, plenty of PAC energy coming through and a clearly defined kicker right on the heels of the AJ s/w as it breaks off from the PV.

If you go back through the Kocin Book, you will find that MOST of the big ones for the EUS have occurred in synoptically simple patterns. there have been exceptions--I'll use JAN 2000 as an example here, but that event didn't have much of an effect on PHL, NYC, or BOS. it was MAINLY a BWI/ south problem. 20" at CLT and RDU!! 12" at DCA if memory serves me correct.

DCA, I believe was around 14" ... someone posted a map of the amounts somewhere, but I don't remember where it's at ... but for the last week, I've mentioned the similarities between The Carolina Crusher, and this setup (although, the current system will have a much different result for the Carolinas) WRT to the overall convulated nature of the mess at hand.

The Carolina Crusher ... maps in motion ... notice just how complex the SFC pattern was WRT to actually waiting for upstream energy (which is NOT shown on a SFC map) ... and bombs out ...
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Temp/TempLoops/MSLPCC.gif

Snowfall amounts
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/rah/graphics/storm4.jpg

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Temp/TempLoops/MSLPCC.gif

[wxguy25]

Thanks for the awesome graphics WX Guy. Fummy thing, the last forecast I heard this am before I went to work the forecaster seemed to be playing down the event. He mentioned a kicker which would push system out faster and a farther east track. He's pretty good (Barry Burbank ch4 Boston). Keep the updates and maps coming as this thing gets closer!

I agree w/ him. that s/w is the biggest complicating factor. If we took a second though to assess the synoptic pattern over the US, NA and the North Atlantic, Its NOT ideal for a Major east coast snowstorm. The PNA ridge is not that amplified, there is NO Greenland Block or 50-50 low, plenty of PAC energy coming through and a clearly defined kicker right on the heels of the AJ s/w as it breaks off from the PV.

If you go back through the Kocin Book, you will find that MOST of the big ones for the EUS have occurred in synoptically simple patterns. there have been exceptions--I'll use JAN 2000 as an example here, but that event didn't have much of an effect on PHL, NYC, or BOS. it was MAINLY a BWI/ south problem. 20" at CLT and RDU!! 12" at DCA if memory serves me correct.

DCA, I believe was around 14" ... someone posted a map of the amounts somewhere, but I don't remember where it's at ... but for the last week, I've mentioned the similarities between The Carolina Crusher, and this setup (although, the current system will have a much different result for the Carolinas) WRT to the overall convulated nature of the mess at hand.

The Carolina Crusher ... maps in motion ... notice just how complex the SFC pattern was WRT to actually waiting for upstream energy (which is NOT shown on a SFC map) ... and bombs out ...
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Temp/TempLoops/MSLPCC.gif

Snowfall amounts
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/rah/graphics/storm4.jpg

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Temp/TempLoops/MSLPCC.gif

the PJ s/w which dived in is what caught the lead STJ s/w, phased w/ it and prevented the SLP area from going out to sea while bombing it out.

[wxguy25]

updated DEC 19-20 ideas for the Northeast...

http://www.geocities.com/allwx11/dec19-20tot.jpg

I still see this becoming a MAJOR event for new england

[Dave C]

Another day closer.... the mets in my area are really having fun with this possible storm. One even mentioned how he wasn't going to flip-flop with the models each day. Picture should be pretty clear by Sat eve model runs hopefully(some bigtime grey hairs expectedLOL)

[Stephanie]

WOW! Thanks for the update wxguy. I'll take the 3 inches of snow.

[wxguy25]

WOW! Thanks for the update wxguy. I'll take the 3 inches of snow.

Ill be more specific tomorrow once the models get a better handle on the situation.

[Persepone]

Hey WXGuy25--are you trying to bury me in snow or what???javascript:emoticon(':D')


"Yeah, someone could see 20" out of this
(probably someplace in SE Maine or out on
the Cape/ extreme SE New England. "[/quote]

20" of snow is not what I need out of this storm as I start a new, short-term contract job Monday morning in Andover, MA (but I live on Cape Cod). So I guess I'm going up Sunday... At least I put my snow tires on today!

My daughter lives in NH, so I can't go there to hide out either, I guess...

Oh well, the skiing should be good.javascript:emoticon(':roll:')

[daisy25]

Upton NWS office is only reporting 1 inch for SE Connecticut for the 19th and 20th Daisy