Uncertainties to be ironed out with Coastal Storm on Monday.

[Stormsfury]

Updated my website (FINALLY!!!) ..

http://www.stormsfury1.com
(Goto Forecast/Prognostic Discussion)

and yes, some areas not used to seeing snow in the Southeast may get some teasing snow shower action on Sunday/Monday ...

[breeze]

Yaaaaay for the Christmas forecast, I say, SF!

Thanks!

[wxguy25]

Updated my website (FINALLY!!!) ..

http://www.stormsfury1.com
(Goto Forecast/Prognostic Discussion)

and yes, some areas not used to seeing snow in the Southeast may get some teasing snow shower action on Sunday/Monday ...

Par excellence as always. You forgot the LES though which IMO is going to be a HUGE problem.

850h w/ the trough swinging through are as low as -20C and lake temperatures are still warm thereby intensifying lapse rates and contributing to CI. This is going to be BIG IMO. Add in a few weak shortwaves coming through and locally enhancing PVA you can have a heck of an event. We saw it in DEC 2001, and Last JAN.

[Stormsfury]

Updated my website (FINALLY!!!) ..

http://www.stormsfury1.com
(Goto Forecast/Prognostic Discussion)

and yes, some areas not used to seeing snow in the Southeast may get some teasing snow shower action on Sunday/Monday ...

Par excellence as always. You forgot the LES though which IMO is going to be a HUGE problem.

850h w/ the trough swinging through are as low as -20C and lake temperatures are still warm thereby intensifying lapse rates and contributing to CI. This is going to be BIG IMO. Add in a few weak shortwaves coming through and locally enhancing PVA you can have a heck of an event. We saw it in DEC 2001, and Last JAN.

The LES was a bit out of my range, but absolutely agreed on LES ... I didn't get into a lot of detail with the upsloping event in the NC Mountains, but it looks to be a PDS event. 0z GFS still appears to be missing the discrete PJ s/w's ...

SF

[wxguy25]

Just had a look at the 0z ETA now tha tthe event is coming into the 84hr range.

Prognosis: Bleh.

the GFS only had one Mexican RAOB in for initialization.

[rainstorm]

problem is its extremely rare for an east coast storm to form at the same time of a major les event.

[Guest]

problem is its extremely rare for an east coast storm to form at the same time of a major les event.

HUH? Mind elaborating on that.

[storms NC]

Updated my website (FINALLY!!!) ..

http://www.stormsfury1.com
(Goto Forecast/Prognostic Discussion)

and yes, some areas not used to seeing snow in the Southeast may get some teasing snow shower action on Sunday/Monday ...

You know it is the same set up as in dec 89. they called for the same as now. Then the day of the snow they changed it for a few ins then every one on the coast got any where from 12 to 20 +. It is one of things that has to come all together. And it don't happen a whole lot.

[rainstorm]

problem is its extremely rare for an east coast storm to form at the same time of a major les event.

HUH? Mind elaborating on that.

quite simple. a major les event requires a strong west or wsw surface flow. plus their is no high over the lakes.forget about a major east coast storm forming at the same time a majoe les is occuring

[nin9inch9nails]

quite simple. a major les event requires a strong west or wsw surface flow. plus their is no high over the lakes.forget about a major east coast storm forming at the same time a majoe les is occuring.


True for Buffalo, Syracuse, Watertown LES but not Cleveland, Erie.

[Anonymous]

It's something to keep an eye on SUN night into early MON in the eastern Carolinas. Does look like some scattered snow showers are not out of the question at all, plus with h85 temps down to below -10C moving over warmer lake waters of Lake Moultrie/Marion, I wouldn't doubt some covective instability/snowshowers downstream of the lakes, especially Berkeley County. If so, I'll look into going there tomorrow night.

[QCWx]

It looks good, real good for areas in NC west of 77 right now. Alot of things can happen between now and then though.

[Dan]

It's something to keep an eye on SUN night into early MON in the eastern Carolinas. Does look like some scattered snow showers are not out of the question at all, plus with h85 temps down to below -10C moving over warmer lake waters of Lake Moultrie/Marion, I wouldn't doubt some covective instability/snowshowers downstream of the lakes, especially Berkeley County. If so, I'll look into going there tomorrow night.

Is Lake Moultrie/Marion big enough for some form of lake enhancement to happen? Just courious?

I agree with SF's analysis. That piece of energy sliding down is the trigger that is suppsed to start the big costal low. A quick shot of snow could affect the Central and Eastern Carolinas. Funny thing is the models show almost no QPF, even up here where I live where conditions aloft are prime for a significant upslope event.

[Stormsfury]

It's something to keep an eye on SUN night into early MON in the eastern Carolinas. Does look like some scattered snow showers are not out of the question at all, plus with h85 temps down to below -10C moving over warmer lake waters of Lake Moultrie/Marion, I wouldn't doubt some covective instability/snowshowers downstream of the lakes, especially Berkeley County. If so, I'll look into going there tomorrow night.

Is Lake Moultrie/Marion big enough for some form of lake enhancement to happen? Just courious?

I agree with SF's analysis. That piece of energy sliding down is the trigger that is suppsed to start the big costal low. A quick shot of snow could affect the Central and Eastern Carolinas. Funny thing is the models show almost no QPF, even up here where I live where conditions aloft are prime for a significant upslope event.

Thanks, Dan ... even the dry ETA's showing QPF across some of the region today (on the 12z run) and the GFS brings some of this back ... flurries, maybe a snow shower for the Eastern Carolinas, but better than nothing ... *crossing fingers* ...

As for Lake Moultrie/Marion, generally it isn't big enough for the most part, but they have played a part before in enhancing precipitation w/several cases ... one occurred on Dec 3rd, 2000 (I believe that's the year), where snow showers occurred across the Lowcountry, but in a small band enhanced by the lake, heavy snow showers in a small strip resulted in a light 1"-2" accumulation in Berkeley County... the swath I believe was only a couple of miles wide ...

SF

[Anonymous]

It's something to keep an eye on SUN night into early MON in the eastern Carolinas. Does look like some scattered snow showers are not out of the question at all, plus with h85 temps down to below -10C moving over warmer lake waters of Lake Moultrie/Marion, I wouldn't doubt some covective instability/snowshowers downstream of the lakes, especially Berkeley County. If so, I'll look into going there tomorrow night.

Is Lake Moultrie/Marion big enough for some form of lake enhancement to happen? Just courious?

I agree with SF's analysis. That piece of energy sliding down is the trigger that is suppsed to start the big costal low. A quick shot of snow could affect the Central and Eastern Carolinas. Funny thing is the models show almost no QPF, even up here where I live where conditions aloft are prime for a significant upslope event.

Thanks, Dan ... even the dry ETA's showing QPF across some of the region today (on the 12z run) and the GFS brings some of this back ... flurries, maybe a snow shower for the Eastern Carolinas, but better than nothing ... *crossing fingers* ...

As for Lake Moultrie/Marion, generally it isn't big enough for the most part, but they have played a part before in enhancing precipitation w/several cases ... one occurred on Dec 3rd, 2000 (I believe that's the year), where snow showers occurred across the Lowcountry, but in a small band enhanced by the lake, heavy snow showers in a small strip resulted in a light 1"-2" accumulation in Berkeley County... the swath I believe was only a couple of miles wide ...

SF

Interesting weather on the Dec 2000 event ! Even if it's not a big deal tonight, we could see at least something in scattered locations. Will keep my fingers crossed and check on radar tonight...

BTW, Huntsville,AL (northern part of state) is reporting mixed precip:

NOW...
AT 750 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. REPORTS FROM
LAW ENFORCEMENT AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORT A MIX OF
LIGHT RAIN...SLEET AND FLURRIES IN MANY LOCATIONS. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH 9 AM.