is the NWS in TX being too Conservative?

[ETXHAMXYL]

I just saw the ft.worth NWS post the 60's for WEd and Thurs of next week. We are suppose to cool down on Sunday but then warm up fast Monday-Thursday. There is no hint of anything coming on their site and haven't heard any locally. Accuweather has 40's and possible snow on Christmas day, but they are still not running too cold with 50's next week and in the 15 day outlook. Seems to be dry on both sites.
So everything else on the weatherboards all over shows a MIGHTY COLD BLAST coming next week and soon after. Many have mentioned SNOW in the far south and gulf coast.
Are these weather boards going OVERBOARD? or is the Locals and NWS just being TOO CONSERVATIVE?
I'd like at least a little hint since people are getting ready to travel or have people come down here. Y'all know that we can't drive in the white stuff and everything shuts down or we have power outages and people having wrecks trying to go to the store for bread and milk. I've got Yankee relatives who think it is going to be in the 60's down here and they plan on wearing shorts and short sleeves. I can't convince them about the talk of a possible Blue Norther next week.
The NWS here must think that people will have enough Turkey and Cornbread dressing and Pecan (not pronounced PEA-CAN) Pie to survive a few days until it warms up into the 60's or 70's again.
I just remember those surprise ice storms and 15 inch snows of the 70's and 80's. Don't to be caught off guard again.
So what do I tell my Yankee relatives about next week?

[nin9inch9nails]

The latest (12Z) run of the GFS shows no snow for eastern TX on or around Christmas. That doesn't mean things couldn't change though.

[vbhoutex]

I would tell my yankee relatives to bring clothes suitable for both types of temps. We are going to be cold Monday/Tuesday, warm up to the 60's or so for highs the rest of the week and then have another surge of cold air for the weekend and beyond. The cold air coming in over Christmas weekend has a definite chance of being historic for us in this region. precipitation probabilities and types is a whole other matter that really can't be addressed till we get much closer to the time frame. Your area in NE TX(I presume)does have a better chance than we do in SE TX of being in the really cold and possibly winter precip areas that could develop.

Are the Weather boards going overboard? Not in the eyes of any of the Professional and amatuer mets I know. I use sources all over the country for my information and not one is downplaying the upcoming cold or the fact that models do show at least two winter type storm events for some areas in the Eastern 2/3 of the US for the next two weeks(obviously this is a somewhat general statement)and several are pretty confident at least one will be a Southern and/or Southeastern event close to or just after Christmas. JMHO. Anyone else with knowledge feel free to chime n and add or pooh pooh my assumptions.

[Portastorm]

I think you hit the proverbial nail on the head, vbhoutex. I agree with your posting wholeheartedly!!

I just don't think our government-paid forecasters are especially trained or adept at forecasting beyond 5 days, let alone 3-5 days. As we draw closer to this LIKELY event, they ought to hone up their skills and hopefully do a good job in alerting the public accordingly.

[Guest]

I would tell my yankee relatives to bring clothes suitable for both types of temps. .

Plus, you have to think, especially if flying, to bring extra warm clothes for the return back north.

[Yankeegirl]

I just looked at the accuweather forecast, and it says chance of snow on Christmas night and the day after... I really do hope it happens, I have been asking Santa for snow for Christmas for years!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

The NWS and one of our local Mets that predicted no more freezing
temp are getting on board, finally.

[ETXHAMXYL]

Well as soon as I talk about the NWS they change their tune. The 60 forecasts for Thursday is now down to a cool 49. Then in the last two updates there is a mention of some much colder temps and their last run even mentions interesting hints of precip for the Christmas weekend. I guess maybe they are Warming up to the COLD a coming. Even my bowtie guy said tonight that next week could get interesting. Guess its not over till the Fat lady sings...and I am not even ready to to sing Dixie until I get some snow here in ETX.

[Yankeegirl]

Amen ! I totally agree.. I am going to watch the news tonight and see if the local says the S word... I truely think that we are gonig to get something this winter...

[QCWx]

I would think the best way to go is to go conservative because these cold shots down there just dont happen all the time. Also, this isnt the week to go overboard. This is a huge travel and shopping week and they need to be conservative until the very last minute.

[Stormsfury]

I would think the best way to go is to go conservative because these cold shots down there just dont happen all the time. Also, this isnt the week to go overboard. This is a huge travel and shopping week and they need to be conservative until the very last minute.

Couldn't agree more ...

[CaptinCrunch]

Well, I just caught the local news and the weatherman are now getting on CC's winter bandwagon, they went as far as using the "S" word for the 26th....

I will be looking at the possibility of a cut off low forming over SW TX late on the 26th or 27th. With that in mind I really don't need to say what could happen.

The 2nd Polor Blast could reach S. FL and bring Miami it's first hard freeze in a few years.

[jeff]

I think you hit the proverbial nail on the head, vbhoutex. I agree with your posting wholeheartedly!!

I just don't think our government-paid forecasters are especially trained or adept at forecasting beyond 5 days, let alone 3-5 days. As we draw closer to this LIKELY event, they ought to hone up their skills and hopefully do a good job in alerting the public accordingly.

NWS forecasters are very well trained but tend not to buy into the model flip flopping unless it is within a few days of the event. You must understand that their forecast are usually to some degree put on local news forecast and the mention of snow especially in the south over a week from the event can cause "panic". General terms and statements are usually used for long range forecasting with more specific terms and discussions used as the event drawns closer.

Forecast flip flopping as TWC does with each run of the GFS is useless in my book. Look at the general pattern and nail down the details later. In this day of high speed data, there is much more strain opn forecasters to issue more statements and discussions than they do, but each forecast run takes much time and anaylsis and that does not include current short term forecasting on a busy weather day.

The general pattern supports cold arctic air blasting into the US starting this weekend with a second stronger shot between the 23rd and 26th. Short waves moving through the mean trough will bring precip to some areas during the cold outbreak, but timing, intensity and amounts cannot be trusted this far out. It is the same as saying a cat 4 will go into Tampa when the thing is 1000 miles east of the islands.

[Portastorm]

I will respectfully disagree. There has been no "model flip flopping" when it comes to the reality that an Arctic airmass will impact the Southern Plains and Texas next week. Every medium range model in the last 3 days has trumpeted this development and, as far as I can, tell there has been no flip flopping.

Given that many people will leave their homes around Christmas to travel and given that we could be experiencing a prolonged period of sub-freezing temperatures and given that such weather creates great problems here in Texas with pipes bursting and other things, it seems wise to me to at least issue an SPS to the public saying "hey folks, this is coming. It's going to be cold, we're not sure exactly how cold but cold enough to make you folks take precautions."

I'm not saying anything about snow or ice forecasts. In fact, I would agree with you all on this that its very dicey this far out to freak out the public with such a forecast. But ... the cold temps is another story. That's my contention.

I also don't want to create a debate on the effectiveness/performance of our NWS guys. Generally speaking, they do great work. But after being in Texas for 20 years I can tell you they (central and south Texas forecast offices) don't have much experience in calling these Arctic shots. They follow the GFS gospel until it appears otherwise which usually means within 48-72 hours of the event. Trust me. I know. I'm a weather weenie and read the state's forecast discussions every day.

Case in point, this week here in Austin we hit 26 degrees on Tuesday morning. Four days before that freeze, NWS here said lows in the mid to upper 30s. Why? Because the GFS said so. Meanwhile the Euro and Canadian models suggested it would be much colder as did several private industry mets I talked to who believed the GFS was out to lunch. Well, NWS busted on those lows by nearly 10 degrees. By Sunday and using shorter range models, NWS shaved the low temp forecast and did very well within 48 hours.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I agree with Portastorm and what he said about the NMS guys here in Texas. I've been paying attention to what NWS Brownsville has been saying about the upcoming weather event and today even they are treating it as a typical Canadian cold front. Back in the 1980's , I recall listening to my Radio Shack weather radio and hearing the forecasters discussing the classic Arctic outbreaks we had then with great detail and concern by at least a week before they hit. I looedk on the NWS Brownsville website the other day and I think those old school forecasters are gone, probably retired by now. Those guys predicted things like cold spells with instict and history, not models.

[Portastorm]

CC, you are so right! Back in the 80s and into the 90s, the guys at NWS Brownsville were usually the first to pick up on Arctic outbreaks for obvious reasons -- agricultural concerns in the Valley.

They were outstanding and I sadly concur that those guys are probably long gone and retired. Institutional memory/knowledge is invaluable when it comes to forecasting the subtle nuances of specific regional areas.

[Johnny]

Forecasting snow or sleet events here in Southeast, Texas is dang near impossible. I was here during the snow of '83, '89 and the freezing rain/sleet storm in January of 1997. None of these were forecasted until the events were pretty much right on top of us. That's why I'm a little concerned with models bringing us a decent shot of snow this far out.....the infamous JINX!!!! LOL

[CaptinCrunch]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
FRI DEC 17 2004



.LONG TERM...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...SO TEMPS TO COOL A FEW DEGREES. QUICK RECOVERY FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE GFS NUMBERS ARE PROBABLY TO WARM. ALL
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ARCTIC FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. HOWEVER...
MODELS 850 MB TEMPS IN THE -8 TO -12 DEG C RANGE COULD MEAN EVEN
COLDER TEMPS THEN WHATS IN THE ZFP PACKAGE. ALSO...ECMWF INDICATING
1055 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Portastorm,

Check out this afternoons discussion from NWS Brownsville. Those old school forecasters would have not written this. It would have sounded much different. I hope the agricultural interests and cities down there rely on more than one source for their weather needs. This front is not a "Canadian front" which is usually a blend of Arctic and Contiential Air, it's air straight from the Arctic.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
300 PM CST FRI DEC 17 2004

.DISCUSSION...A COASTAL TROUGH THAT WAS A RESULT IN AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY HAS MOVED EAST TODAY CAUSING A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM THE NORTH
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CAUSING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK CAUSING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW
OF AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT CAUSING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE THE RULE AT THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH OVERRUNNING TYPE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

[Johnny]

Yep, they are being conservative alright...check out this afternoons discussion for the Houston/Galveston area. LOL


.DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEARING ON OR SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE STATE SHOULD FINISH THE CLEARING
THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
FROST INTERIOR SECTIONS. MOISTURE LAYER SHALLOW AND WHAT WINDS
THERE ARE FROM DRY TO MOIST SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FOG.
SHORT WAVE DIVING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS SATURDAY EVENING. MAIN EFFECT WILL BE
REINFORCING THE HIGH AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT A LIGHT FREEZE EXCEPT COAST AND URBAN HOUSTON MONDAY
MORNING. AS HIGH MOVES EAST MONDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW
AND NICE WARMUP TO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S RANGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AMPLIFYING RIDGE TO WEST WILL RESULT IN LARGE TROUGH IN WESTERLIES
EXTENDED FROM EAST COAST TO EASTERN ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY. SHORT WAVE
DROPPING INTO THE U.S. WILL SEND SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR ALL THE WAY
THROUGH TEXAS WEDNESDAY ...EARLY IN THE DAY AS IT STANDS NOW FOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. COLDEST TEMPS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW DEEP COLD ADVECTION AND NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SO AT THIS TIME EXPECT NO PRECIP.