Another NWS Having Discussion Fun!

[Guest]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
324 PM CST FRI DEC 17 2004

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL SET UP. DEWPOINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGH TODAY SO NOT
EXPECTING TEMPS TO BE QUITE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING. ALSO...SOME
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY ENTER INTO THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE. ALL IN
ALL...A TRANQUIL NIGHT IS IN ORDER.

SATURDAY WILL SEE NEAR NORMAL NORMAL HIGHS ALONG WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE IN EARNEST SATURDAY
EVENING AS A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH.
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK
WITH...ALMOST NONE IF YOU BELIEVE THE ETA. HAVE DECIDED TO MENTION A
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES SATURDAY EVENING AND A CHANCE OF FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE VERY
STRONG AND WILL SERVE TO RING OUT WHATEVER MOISTURE IS PRESENT. HAVE
TAKEN OUT ALL MENTION OF POPS DUE TO NO EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS.
ASIDE FORM THE FLURRIES...THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE REACHED VERY EARLY IN THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
COMBINE THIS WITH WINDS OF AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AND IT WILL FEEL VERY
COLD OUTSIDE. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS...WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. WIND CHILLS
ARE FORECASTED TO BE FROM ZERO TO 10 DEGREES SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
WILL ISSUE A SPS TO GIVE A HEADS UP TO THIS SITUATION. WIND CHILLS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY (ISSUED FOR WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO) MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIP EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH A
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICK THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS WILL BE SCOURED OUT OF THE REGION. WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALWAYS HAVE A HABIT OF MODIFYING
ARCTIC AIRMASSES TOO QUICKLY AND THIS MAY BE ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF
THAT.

NEXT FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS TIME FRAME. GFS AND ECMWF IN DISAGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE COLD AIR. FEEL GFS MAY BE TOO
FAST WITH COLD AIR SO WILL GO WITH ALL RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY SLIP IN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A BRIEF
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW...BUT THAT IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL AFFECT THE
MIDSOUTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. INDEED...SANTA AND HIS REINDEER MAY FEEL RIGHT AT HOME ON
CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

JFB