NWS Houston AM Discussion/ GFS Worshiping to the max!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

While some of the other NWS offices in Texas are throwing out the suggestion of the 0Z GFS this morning of the Arctic attack's short life, NWS Houston this morning buys it with no questions. Maybe when my truck dies in 5 or 6 years I could sell it to the forecaster who wrote this as a new truck.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
930 AM CST SAT DEC 18 2004


THE FORECAST TURNS COLDER WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH COLDER
AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR IN THE
12-18Z TIMEFRAME AND THEN FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD
SPELL WILL BE OF A SHORTER DURATION AS AN AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGE
FLATTENS AND GETS NUDGED EASTWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BY SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY BUILD. 43

[Portastorm]

That would all be true if this airmass was shallow ... but take a look at those 500 mb temps around Christmas and we all should know better.

This airmass ain't going anywhere anytime soon. The 12z GFS run holds on to the Arctic longer.

I'm still curious about the precip question. JB from Accuwx this morning says its looking more and more likely for snow/ice for central/south Texas north and west of the I-10 corridor. For what its worth, he's been quite good on this whole pattern since early December.

[PTrackerLA]

Well it looks like our shot at a white Christmas has seemingly vanished overnight . We should have known better not to get excited about the GFS that far out. At least it won't be 75 degrees on Christmas though!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

The 12Z GFS is better with holding on to the cold, but warms it up way to much after the 26th till the 30th. With Arctic Outbreaks of this type, it never warms up that fast down here. I recall with the 1989 outbreak, we stayed in the 40's unitl right after New Years Day and that was when I lived in the McAllen area.


How I long for the old school forecasters that didn't rely soley on the GFS or any other model for forecasting weather events. Instict and history sometimes are a better tactic to take in events like this and the same can be said of Hurricanes, especially those that threaten the Texas coast.

[southerngale]

Well it looks like our shot at a white Christmas has seemingly vanished overnight . We should have known better not to get excited about the GFS that far out. At least it won't be 75 degrees on Christmas though!

Where did it go?

I thought the cold and that low was gonna provide some kind of precipitation. I wonder what's changed.