The "McFarland Effect" possibility by 12/21

[CaptinCrunch]

CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO DISSOLVE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS A WEAK FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA AND BRINGS A
RE-ENFORCING PUSH OF COOL/DRY AIR. UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE COOLER
MAV FOR TEMPS. NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS EAST COAST
TROUGH DEEPENS AND BRINGS DOWN SOME ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN
US. WE WILL JUST RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW OF THIS AIRMASS WITH THE
BRUNT OF THE COLD ADVECTION WELL TO OUR EAST. HAVE RAISED TEMPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST SLIGHTLY SUN NIGHT AS WINDS WILL QUICKLY
BECOME SOUTHERLY BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD 20S DO LOOK
LIKELY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE TUE-WED...WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
ENTERING THE CWA AND WASHING OUT.

THERE IS UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT STRONG
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND
A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE PLACED OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK AND WOULD SUPPORT A
FORECAST OF SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR SEEN IN A FEW YEARS...BUT NOT AS
COLD AS THE EVENT THAT OCCURRED EXACTLY 15 YEARS AGO IN 1989. COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST HIGHS
IN THE 40S THURSDAY WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.
WE WILL LIKELY TREND OUR FORECAST COOLER IN THE COMING DAYS...IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSISTENCY. GFS DOES NOT LOOK REALISTIC AS
IT CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDER OUTLIER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
ACROSS CANADA THAT DOES NOT QUITE FIT THE MOLD OF A MCFARLAND
CONFIGURATION. TODAYS 12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW A CLASSIC MCFARLAND
PATTERN AND IT IS WARMER THAN THE GFS...SO HAVE SERIOUS DOUBTS THAT
THE GFS FORECAST OF TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
MORNING WOULD ACTUALLY VERIFY. OTHERWISE...MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED
WITH THE NWLY UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD TO INCLUDE POPS WITH ANY
CONFIDENCE FOR LIQUID OR FROZEN PRECIP AT THIS TIME.

[CaptinCrunch]

Regarding the above post, They missed the December 1989 forecast as well and got caught with sub zero temps on the 23rd.

And I think they are wrong again!!

[PTrackerLA]

Well the fact that they're even comparing this event to 1989 means it will be cold. Probably the coldest since the 90's around here. By late next week all we'll need is the moisture and there will be some sort of wintry precip in the deep south.

[bfez1]

Well the fact that they're even comparing this event to 1989 means it will be cold. Probably the coldest since the 90's around here. By late next week all we'll need is the moisture and there will be some sort of wintry precip in the deep south.

YIPPEE, this is so exciting. Even we don't get snow ( which I am praying we do) it should still be very cold here.
It's beginning to feel a lot like Christmas!!!

[CaptinCrunch]

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
513 AM CST SAT DEC 18 2004



.DISCUSSION...
410 AM
THE COMING WEEK WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR TEMPERATURE
FLUCTUATIONS...WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVING INTO NORTH
TEXAS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BUT FIRST...WE WILL EXPERIENCE A WARM
UP TODAY...WITH A WEAK FRONT COOLING THINGS DOWN SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL
SEE ANOTHER QUICK WARMING TREND...AS DOWNSLOPING...GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS FORM IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD DIGGING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING COLDER
SURFACE AIR INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE ACCOMPANYING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE RED RIVER COUNTIES AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ACCORDING TO BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND THE GFS
MODELS. WE HAVE SPRINKLED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN RED
RIVER COUNTIES...FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 600 PM WEDNESDAY.

WE HAVE THIS PRECIP IN THE FORM OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
SNOW...MATCHING WITH PRECIP TYPES NORMAN IS FORECASTING. AT THIS
TIME...THIS APPEARS TO BE A MINOR PRECIP EVENT. WE HESITATE TO GO
WITH HIGHER POPS SO FAR OUT IN TIME. ALTHOUGH THERE IS FAIR
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LATEST MODELS HERE...THE PATTERN IS A FAST
MOVING ONE...WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT.
THUS...IT IS CURRENTLY A POTENTIAL EVENT WITH CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY. DON'T MAKE ANY PLANS FOR BUILDING SNOW MEN JUST YET!

MUCH COLDER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS LATER IN THE WEEK. A
MCFARLAND TYPE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE ARCTIC
FROM WESTERN CANADA...DIRECTING COLD ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THE ARCTIC AIR LOOKS TO BE
TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...BEYOND DAY 7...THE EUROPEAN OFFERS THAT A SPLIT IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW OVER
ARIZONA...WHICH COULD INDUCE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT
WEEKEND IN NORTH TEXAS. NEVERTHELESS..THE GFS KEEPS THE FLOW
CONSOLIDATED...AND PROMISES COLD...DRY WEATHER. TIME WILL
TELL!

BEYOND EARLY NEXT...THE NEW GFS RUN SHOWS THAT RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
WESTERLIES WILL TAKE THE LEGS OUT FROM UNDER THE CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL
BLOCK...LEADING TO A RAPID WARM UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL U.S. IN THE 9-15 DAY PERIOD. WE DON'T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SOLUTION...WILL HAVE TO SEE MORE CONTINUITY TO BUY INTO IT.