Very light snow(probably flurries) from Southwest Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
18z GFS on the Christmas storm
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Brent
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18z GFS on the Christmas storm
Midnight Early on Christmas Eve.
Very light snow(probably flurries) from Southwest Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
Very light snow(probably flurries) from Southwest Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
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Stormsfury
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Good lord, I hate 18z GFS runs ... and even worse, I hate any GFS run past 84 hours ... clearly, the model is incapable of handling the cold arctic high, and just how easily the low overcomes a wedge scenario across the Southeast, given those maps ...
I won't even continue my rant of how awful the run looks.
SF
I won't even continue my rant of how awful the run looks.
SF
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Stormsfury
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The point is ... it's way overdone with QPF, doesn't handle NNE winds draining down the Eastern Side of the Appalachians, and WOULD force an energy transfer from the E GOM into the W ATL ... and the 850mb temperatures on the NNE side of the low are way, way too warm ... at face value, would indicate a significant icestorm threat to South Carolina, given the shallow nature of the arctic air draining down the Eastern side of the Appalachians ... but there are way too many flaws in the run that I can't even begin to start ...
SF
SF
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Brent
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Stormsfury wrote:The point is ... it's way overdone with QPF, doesn't handle NNE winds draining down the Eastern Side of the Appalachians, and WOULD force an energy transfer from the E GOM into the W ATL ... and the 850mb temperatures on the NNE side of the low are way, way too warm ... at face value, would indicate a significant icestorm threat to South Carolina, given the shallow nature of the arctic air draining down the Eastern side of the Appalachians ... but there are way too many flaws in the run that I can't even begin to start ...
SF
So... what do you think about snow in Central Alabama?
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Scorpion
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Stormsfury
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Central Alabama has a better chance of wintry precip per ECMWF, AFTER day 7 given the 3 day mean (8-10 day average) ... ECMWF does show pooling moisture in the GOM when the arctic front passes by, the 12z ECMWF 850mb temperatures are much warmer than the 18z GFS (but well known that the ECMWF has a slight warm bias and the GFS has a well known cold bias) ...
still really very early to give specific details, but the synoptic pattern suggests a significant overrunning event to occur by Christmas ... that appears a good bet right now...
SF
still really very early to give specific details, but the synoptic pattern suggests a significant overrunning event to occur by Christmas ... that appears a good bet right now...
SF
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