No snow for New Orleans--- :(

[bfez1]

OK...a quick update on next week. Today's runs of the GFS are showing a more realistic solution to the Thursday and Friday forecast for us today. That is, most of the moisture skirts to the east before the coldest air arrives. If I had to bet on it, I'd say this is a more likely scenario. Right now, I am going to throw some sleet and flurrie chances in the detailed forecast for the northshore, but that is as far as I am willing to commit to anything this far out. That forecast would tend to favor climatology anyway, and has a better chance of verification.

I think the bigger news is PIPE BUSTING COLD for Christmas morning. Based on what I am seeing in the European model and the GFS, I have a fair degree of confidence that we will see a hard pipe busting freeze on both the southshore and the northshore on Christmas morning. This would not be good news for us, so make sure your pipes are taken care of, even on newer homes.

Now, we still need to get into the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame before we will have a better handle on all this, but I have to call them like I see them this far out. Let's keep hoping for some snow, and who knows, maybe it'll happen. Right now, based on the model output for today, I can see some flurries out there, but that's it. The GFS is still calling for accumulating snow as close as SW Mississippi, but no longer in Louisiana.

More updates as I get new information...

John


John Gumm
Meteorologist
WWL-TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116

[TS Zack]

John Gumm never states no snow.

new GFS runs showing big snowstorm again. If we just analyze every run and just take one run and go nuts over it then we will will drive each other insane.

[Wpwxguy]

Zacks right, the gfs has flip flopped back and forth on this storm from day one. One run its there, the next its either non existent or way south. Just wait for the next run to see if it is more or less aggressive with the storm. I still feel like we'll see something , whether it be sleet or light snow.

[bfez1]

John Gumm never states no snow.

new GFS runs showing big snowstorm again. If we just analyze every run and just take one run and go nuts over it then we will will drive each other insane.

This is what John Gumm said, "I can see some flurries out there, but that's it. The GFS is still calling for accumulating snow as close as SW Mississippi, but no longer in Louisiana.


That says no snow to me and I certainly want to be wrong about it.

[Jagno]

bfez1, I'm in SW LA and they haven't even mentioned the cold let alone any snow or sleet chances here so your post was no suprise. However, I am heartbroken. I wanted my youngest son to see snow.

[bfez1]

bfez1, I'm in SW LA and they haven't even mentioned the cold let alone any snow or sleet chances here so your post was no suprise. However, I am heartbroken. I wanted my youngest son to see snow.

I wanted to see snow myself---a white Christmas, how exciting!

[wx247]

Don't go getting upset yet. We are almost a week out still. Surely you folks down in hurricane country know how much a forecast can change in a week.

[Wpwxguy]

Well, the gfs is again showing a major system in the gulf of mexico. It is once again bringing in more moisture over southeast LA. Just goes to show that the gfs is not reliable on just one run.

[MGC]

I am still doubt the snow will arrive. Just so hard for a south La/Ms snow event. Still got my fingers crossed though....MGC

[gboudx]

Does the GFS take into account the lack of snowcover in the North/Central US? There's hardly any snow on the ground up there, so the temps have a long ways to moderate on the way down. I'm doubting the model is able to factor this in.

[TS Zack]

Yes Bfez,

Remember the forecast has changed for no snow and by tomorrow it could reverse itself and be heavy snow.

New Orleans usually doesn't see the event until a day before the event.

[bfez1]

Yes Bfez,

Remember the forecast has changed for no snow and by tomorrow it could reverse itself and be heavy snow.

New Orleans usually doesn't see the event until a day before the event.

Keeping my fingers crossed!

[CajunMama]

[/quote]

Keeping my fingers crossed! [/quote]

and my toes
and my eyes
and my ankles
and my legs
and my knees
and my arms

[wx247]

Keeping my fingers crossed! [/quote]

and my toes
and my eyes
and my ankles
and my legs
and my knees
and my arms

[/quote]

Is there anyone close by available to take a picture?

[donsutherland1]

Bfez1,

There's still a lot of uncertainty. While I'm not suggesting that it will snow in New Orleans, I don't think one can definitively rule out the prospect at this point in time.

For now, as proof that it can snow in New Orleans:

http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photo1895.html

[amawea]

Well, to give you some hope. On Dec. 24th, 1993 our local tv service on the 10:00pm news said there was absolutely no chance of a white Chritmas. We had stayed up late and my Dad called at around 8:00a.m on Christmas morning and asked what the weather was like up here. I said just cold no snow, and when I went to the window it was all white and still snowing hard. We ended up with 6 inches on Christmas. There was a low that backdoored us and caught all the mets by surprise. We live right on the Ar./Missouri line. You can find the snow totals in the nws archives.
I state again. He said "absolutely no chance of a white Christmas., maybe 8 hours before it started snowing. I couldn't believe it.
Amawea

[ssom04]

Does the GFS take into account the lack of snowcover in the North/Central US? There's hardly any snow on the ground up there, so the temps have a long ways to moderate on the way down. I'm doubting the model is able to factor this in.

Your right there is no snow up here until you get up to canada

[mmuscare]

Just like the snowstorm in 1989 in New Orleans and all the ones before it, they have never been predicted, only happened when we least expected it, therefore by this logic, John Gumm states there is no snow storm for new orleans, and therefore there must be since he is not predicting it!

Ergo, white christmas in New Orleans!

Mike30N90W