Wednesday's System and LES

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IndianaWxOnline
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Wednesday's System and LES

#1 Postby IndianaWxOnline » Sat Dec 18, 2004 9:14 pm

I made a map concerning Wednesday's system, on where I think the heaviest snow will setup and where ice will be possible. http://www.indianaweatheronline.com to view the map. Also I will be issuing my final call here shortly for LES. Only changes I am going to make are to up amounts and extend everything a little bit farther south.
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#2 Postby PurdueWx80 » Sat Dec 18, 2004 9:27 pm

Excellent discussion, and as you can probably tell from my other post, I agree with shifting your earlier forecast further south and perhaps west. Every model I'm seeing tonight shows winds from 350-10 degrees, meaning the band should be almost purely north-to-south. Also, nice job on next week's storm - looks like a great forecast as of now!
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#3 Postby IndianaWxOnline » Sat Dec 18, 2004 9:28 pm

Thanks. Nice to have some other hoosiers on here!
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#4 Postby PurdueWx80 » Sat Dec 18, 2004 10:10 pm

Wow - tonight's Eta implies a major snowstorm for the Louisville and Cincinnati areas, in addition to northern AR, southeast MO, southern IL, southern IN, northern KY, southern and central OH etc. This morning's run had a bubble of high pressure behind the front, but now it's latching onto the other model's ideas of energy lagging behind and an overrunning event north of the front as very cold air penetrates southwards behind it.
Image
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While the 84 hour only gets to the beginning of the event, the amount of heavy precip and convection it shows to the south of these areas implies to me that a major snow and ice storm will come northeast along and behind the arctic front. It's probably too early to throw out accumulation ideas, but I will not be surprised to see parts of the lower and middle Ohio Valley end up with 6-10" (12 perhaps not out of the question in isolated regions). This won't be a strong storm synoptically (no excitingly low pressures) but the WAA and frontogenetic forcing will be powerful and will precede the bigger event along the east coast later in the week. Looks like my family may not get to do our annual progressive dinner in southern IN for Christmas Eve.
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#5 Postby IndianaWxOnline » Sat Dec 18, 2004 10:25 pm

Yeah, the ETA looks a lot better then the GFS. Hopefully that precip. gets far enough to the North so I get some snow out of it! Light snow falling here right now.
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chadtm80

#6 Postby chadtm80 » Sat Dec 18, 2004 10:29 pm

Great Discussion IndianaWxOnline
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#7 Postby JenyEliza » Sat Dec 18, 2004 10:30 pm

IndianaWxOnline wrote: Light snow falling here right now.


I'm so jealous! I'd be happy with that. It doesn't even have to stick!! :D
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#8 Postby IndianaWxOnline » Sat Dec 18, 2004 10:36 pm

The ETA looks great for the Ohio Valley. It would imply freezing rain for parts of Central Kentucky with heavy snow north of that. I wouldn't be suprised if someone got double digt snowfall amounts if the eta verified. The gfs is far less agressive with the low, and qpf amounts are quite less. But the GFS is also farther southeast, and it has had a southeast bias with Ohio Valley storms this year, so time will tell.

As far as LES tonight, the bands will begin to take shape later tonight, and start out in Northwestern Indiana and slowly retrograde east by later tomorrow. It is just incredible how far south these bands are forecasted to reach, and thundersnow is quite possible with CAPE Values approaching 1300!!!!!!
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#9 Postby PurdueWx80 » Sun Dec 19, 2004 10:11 am

So, uh...check out the images above now that they've updated to the 12Z run. I'm speechless. I've added the 250 mb map to this to show the coupled jet with very nice upper level divergence.

While it keeps areas along and south of the OH river as sleet or freezing rain, areas just to the north would see a very healthy snow storm....this mostly from the WAA precip before the deformation zone forms (which appears to occur beyond 84 hours) - this means a foot could easily fall across much of IN and OH. The Eta appears to be putting all of the mid-level energy into this system, and I'm not even sure an east coast storm would develop from this (although the upper jet would favor a low forming off the SE coast, there are no signs of a low-level coastal trough). It's one run among many, but the trends here are VERY interesting indeed.
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