SNOW WATCH ATLANTA (for Sun 12/19)

[JenyEliza]

from 3:30 today.

.LONG TERM...
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD COLDER PATTERN. GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH POLAR SURGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. GFS INDICATING STRONG VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 1000-850 THICKNESS...SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT IF GFS PANS OUT MUCH OF FORECAST AREA MAY SEE FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY.

ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS EVENT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS BACK INTO AREA BY TUESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

[storms NC]

That is about what they are saying for here on the coast of NC . Here is what they had to say

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...AS THE HIGH PRES MOVES OFF TO
THE NE FRI...A WEAK SFC LOW COULD BRING SHRA TO MAINLY COASTAL
WATERS AND ISOLD TO COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH SAT. THE MAIN WEATHER
MAKER WILL BE A STRONG UPPER LVL LOW SLIDING SE FROM CANADA LATE
THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW COMBINING WITH MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OVER THE REGION. THIS COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SUNDAY...BUT AS CAA BEHIND THE LOW FILTERS INTO THE REGION COULD
SEE THE REGIONS FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW. THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/AND DGEX
MODELS ALL DEVELOP A LOW NEAR THE REGION SUN NT/MON WITH ALL SHOWING
TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING BY MONDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME MIX
PRECIP ALONG THE OUTER BANKS GIVEN THE WARMER COASTAL WATERS. DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIG ACCUMULATIONS WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THINK THE GFS MAY BE OVERESTIMATING
THE MOISTURE SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS TO AROUND 30%. FAR SW
PORTIONS OF THE CWA COULD SEE MAINLY A FLURRY OR TWO...BUT WILL NOT
TRY AND OVER ANALYZE THE PERIOD THIS FAR OUT. THE GENERAL TREND IN
ALL THE MODELS INDICATED FREEZING PRECIP BY MON. THE EXTENDED GFS
MOS IS KEEPING TEMPS FAIRLY MILD AROUND THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN THE
FACT THAT CLIMO IS BLENDED INTO THE GUIDANCE...FEEL IT IS TOO WARM.
GFS MOS SHOWING TEMPS AROUND 40 MON AND NEAR 50 TUE! BASED ON THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEEL THIS IS WAY OVERDONE AND TOOK TEMPS DOWN A
CATEGORY OR TWO FOR MON/MON NT/TUE. AFTERWARDS HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
IN THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WED NT/THU. THIS
EVENT APPEARS TO BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT.

[JenyEliza]

Peachtree City is NOTORIOUS for under playing forecasts.

I suspect they will change what they say (snow, no snow, snow, no snow, etc) several times more before Saturday. Even then, they still stand at least a 50% chance (in my mind) of missing the forecast entirely.

It's very common that they completely blow a forecast where it concerns winter weather events. They just don't seem to have a grasp on it....

My opinions purely.....but I've only lived here 37 years, so what do I know?

Jen

[JenyEliza]

from 5:40 pm today

.LONG TERM...
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD COLDER PATTERN. GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH POLAR SURGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. GFS INDICATING STRONG VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 1000-850 THICKNESS...SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT IF GFS PANS OUT MUCH OF FORECAST AREA MAY SEE FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY.

ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS EVENT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS BACK INTO AREA BY TUESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

[Brent]

They pretty much agree with the surrounding offices in Alabama. 20% chance of snow showers here Sunday and I'm pretty far south, up with Troup County, GA. I suspect that will go up as this morning the 20% chance was well north with nada here.

[JenyEliza]

And....just 98 miles to the north (Chattanooga, TN) at 9:08 pm tonight:

OF COURSE...MUCH INTEREST IN THE WEEKEND WEATHER WITH GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ADVERTISE SOME POSSIBLE SNOW AMOUNTS...IF THE 00Z AND 12Z MODEL RUNS FOR THURSDAY ARE CONSISTENT. WILL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT FRESHEN THE SPS/WINTER STORM OUTLOOK ISSUED EARLIER.

[Brent]

Yeah... the bigger accumulations will defintely be farther north, I'm hoping we get enough for a coating here, but I doubt it. BUT, I didn't even think we'd see any flurries this morning and now I think we will see snow showers.

[JenyEliza]

Yeah... the bigger accumulations will defintely be farther north, I'm hoping we get enough for a coating here, but I doubt it. BUT, I didn't even think we'd see any flurries this morning and now I think we will see snow showers.

The NW suburbs of Atlanta (where I live) sometimes have similar conditions to Chattanooga. And, sometimes we ride the rain/snow line. Going north from Cobb/Cherokee/Bartow up towards Dalton and Chattanooga sometimes get similar amounts. So, I kind of use Chattanooga's discussion to gauge what to possibly expect (minus an inch or two).

Earlier today, Chattanooga was only expected to see flurries or perhaps a dusting, with the only accumulations in the mountains to the east. THAT has changed, and so I expect in the next 48 hours ours will as well.

Yipee!! :

[JenyEliza]

From Huntsville, AL at 2:35pm CST today

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
"MAIN EVENT" (SO TO SPEAK) FOR THE ENTIRE FCST PD IS THE REGION'S FIRST WINTER WX POTENTIAL. THERE...I SAID IT...YES...WINTER WX. HOWEVER...AS IS USUALLY THE CASE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE SITUATION...AND NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE GULF NEVER REALLY OPENS UP. 12Z GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIP SAT NIGHT...AND THIS REMAINS INTACT THROUGH 12-18Z SUN...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO THE END OF WHAT IS ALREADY VERY LT PRECIP. COULD BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE LIGHT PRECIP IS A VERY COLD LIGHT RAIN...BUT ANY SLIGHTLY HEAVIER PRECIP COOLS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SNOW FOR A WHILE (TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER IS < -10C SO NUCLEATION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE). ENTIRE SOUNDING SHIFTS COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...SO ANY PRECIP THAT LINGERS INTO SUN AFTN WOULD LIKELY FALL AS SNOW.

HAVING SAID ALL THIS...STILL LOOKS VERY BORDERLINE AND LIABLE TO CHANGE...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE TENDENCY OF THE GFS TO JUMP AROUND/MODIFY SYSTEMS IN THE DAY 4-5 TIMEFRAME. LATEST RUNS OF THE ETA AND DGEX WOULD APPEAR TO REINFORCE THIS UNCERTAINTY AS THEY BOTH KEEPING THE ENTIRE PD DRY...WHICH SEEMS MORE IN LINE WITH EXPECTED MOISTURE AND THE NATURE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS IN THE TN VALLEY. IN SHORT...IT'S TOO EARLY TO START BUYING ANY BREAD OR MILK.

[JenyEliza]

From Augusta GA (300 miles or so SE from Atlanta) at 2:44 pm EST today.

.LONG TERM...
ON SUNDAY...DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER OHIO AND TN VALLEYS MOVES RAPIDLY TO MID ATLANTIC COAST SPAWNING AN INTENSE COASTAL LOW OVER CAROLINA WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICS APPEAR STRONG ON LATEST GFS RUN...THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY AND PREFER NOT TO INTRODUCE DEFINITE PRECIPITATION POPS AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT. SUBSEQUENT DATA MAY DICTATE THE NEED FOR SOME MENTION OF WINTER PRECIP.

[JenyEliza]

from 3:25 pm TODAY. Looks like Peachtree City's confidence in the weekend forecast is going up!

ALSO...LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT..AND THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLY REACHING INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY SUNDAY...EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

[JenyEliza]

Special Weather Statement:

325 PM EST THU DEC 16 2004

...COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AIMING FOR GEORGIA THIS WEEKEND...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST OVER 40 MPH IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT...CREATING WIND CHILLS OF ZERO TO 5 BELOW ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...AND 5 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING WIND SPEEDS...AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 30S ELSEWHERE.

ALSO...LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT..AND THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLY REACHING INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY SUNDAY...EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

YOU CAN KEEP UP TO DATE ON THIS EXTREME COLD POTENTIAL BY VISITING OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV AND CLICKING ON GEORGIA...OR STAY TUNED TO YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

[Brent]

I don't expect any accumulation outside of the mountains... Atlanta will probably see some pretty snow falling with nothing on the ground.

I hope I'm wrong. I'd love to have it.

[JenyEliza]

I don't expect any accumulation outside of the mountains... Atlanta will probably see some pretty snow falling with nothing on the ground.

I hope I'm wrong. I'd love to have it.

I hope you're wrong too. But, you're probably right. So what? It WILL be just the thing I need to get in the Christmas mood! Snow! Even if it doesn't stick.

Jen

[JenyEliza]

Well, our snow-watch has begun at our house! The kids (9 yr old twins) are praying for snow to STICK (which it probably isn't going to in our area). I'll be happy with just pretty snow falling all afternoon/evening. It's still early this winter---hopefully as we get further into winter the chances for a REAL storm will increase!!

SNOW WATCH ATLANTA has begun officially!!

[JenyEliza]

SNOW WATCH ATLANTA.

Coverage continues.....(lol)

Kids are in bed. Sound asleep. Laundry is going. Computer is too. Nothing in the way of precip so far. But, the temp is now hovering at 39 F in my part of town, and clouds seem to be making their first appearance tonight.

We'll keep you posted!

[Brent]

You might want to get the magnifying glasses out... moisture is EXTREMELY limited. If your lucky, you may see a brief flurry but it certainly will not fall all afternoon or evening.

Christmas Eve will be a much different story IMO.

[JenyEliza]

SNOW WATCH ATLANTA....continued coverage.

Well, well, looks like our (envious) neighbor in Alabama is doubting the appearance of frozen precip in the Atlanta area. Well, we shall see how it all pans out.

I'm feeling fairly confident there won't be a run on magnifiers at Walgreen's tomorrow!

[Brent]

SNOW WATCH ATLANTA....continued coverage.

Well, well, looks like our (envious) neighbor in Alabama is doubting the appearance of frozen precip in the Atlanta area. Well, we shall see how it all pans out.

I'm feeling fairly confident there won't be a run on magnifiers at Walgreen's tomorrow!

LOL... I would love nothing more than to see it, but if you want accumulation, pack the kids up and head for Western North Carolina.

[JenyEliza]

SNOW WATCH ATLANTA....continued coverage.

Well, well, looks like our (envious) neighbor in Alabama is doubting the appearance of frozen precip in the Atlanta area. Well, we shall see how it all pans out.

I'm feeling fairly confident there won't be a run on magnifiers at Walgreen's tomorrow!

LOL... I would love nothing more than to see it, but if you want accumulation, pack the kids up and head for Western North Carolina.

SNOW WATCH ATLANTA.....coverage continues.

Shh....but then I might run into my ex mother-in-law (in Haywood Cty). NO WAY. No can do.