They've only posted through Day 4 (96 hours).
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _fpc.shtml
Looks like the model is still wanting some light frozen precipitation across Central Texas where the -6 line on the 850mb chart is in play. It will be interesting to see what's in the Days 5 and 6 portions of the run as it comes out. Now's the time to start looking for some consitency and to see how its biases are working relative to each day that passes.
Steve
Hey Texas: Hadn't seen the whole 00Z run of GFS yet...
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vbhoutex
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At least the local ocm's have awakened!! They are all on board with the extreme(for us)cold. The question remains of course when and where and if the moisture is available. The cold is a definite at this point.
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Yankeegirl
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I think that the temps are going to be a definate, but the moisture wil have to make an appearance to make me happy.. I am still praying that we get some white stuff... I guess we will have to wait and see... The local news said we have a 20% chance of "something" depends on what time the "something" happens... He said it could make for an interesting weekend... 
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aggiecutter
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Looks like the cold air might be transient. The last 2 runs of the GFS have trended more to the solution of one shot and and out; whereas, a couple days ago it had multiple shots lasting until early next week. This might be a repeat of 89'. One cold shot around Christmas, although this one wont be nearly as cold, and a big warm-up the following week.
The GFS 0z run already has the cold air out of Texas by Christmas day.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml
Wonder what happened since the 6z run earlier today, saturday.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml
Looks like a fight between Bastardi's trough east of Hawaii, which argues for pattern progression. And, the lag in the positive SOI, which argues for pattern regression. The final solution will probably be somewhere in between the 2 runs.
The GFS 0z run already has the cold air out of Texas by Christmas day.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml
Wonder what happened since the 6z run earlier today, saturday.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml
Looks like a fight between Bastardi's trough east of Hawaii, which argues for pattern progression. And, the lag in the positive SOI, which argues for pattern regression. The final solution will probably be somewhere in between the 2 runs.
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PTrackerLA
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Well it looks like it will be cold, but not very cold and dry (:() for Christmas. What earlier appeared to be a brutually cold arctic air mass is now anything but with lows only reaching the upper 20's Thursday night and Friday w/ highs in the 50's. It's a shame, for a while I was starting to think the arctic air and precip would meet up for some Chrimstas magic but that doesn't appear to be the case anymore. Oh well, our best shot at snow is during February anyway 
.
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Yankeegirl
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Yankeegirl
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This is what the local weather guys are saying...
CHRISTMAS EVE: It's beginning to feel a lot like Christmas. Temperatures will dive into the 20s overnight and 42 degrees will be our high with mostly cloudy skies. We even have a 20% of precipitation. Depending on what time of day it happens it could be rain, ice or even snow. Remember it's a very small chance. This is from KPRC Channel 2...
CHRISTMAS EVE: It's beginning to feel a lot like Christmas. Temperatures will dive into the 20s overnight and 42 degrees will be our high with mostly cloudy skies. We even have a 20% of precipitation. Depending on what time of day it happens it could be rain, ice or even snow. Remember it's a very small chance. This is from KPRC Channel 2...
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