For this Memphis meteorologist...

[ALhurricane]

I am throwing all meteorological reasoning out the window and -removed- a Christmas snow for Memphis

Seriously, I have feeling that if this system does take shape, that Memphis will indeed likely be left out of the fun. The precip shield likely wouldn't make it this far north. Now what I am hoping is that we get a Low that runs much further inland. Then and only then will I be happy. See, even professional mets have their wishes and this southern boy wants a White Christmas!

In all seriousness, the GGEM and Euro are showing a very favorable setup for a SECS for Christmas. The GFS is showing its true colors by proving that one run it can't see the STJ and on another run it does see it...but then goes nutso by closing off a low...

The Euro has got the right idea in my opinion. It keeps the southern stream system seperate from the northern system, allowing for a Miller A type low to form. Of course, we will have to wait and see what happens, but this could definitely be a Christmas to remember for somebody in the South!

[jkt21787]

Being from Memphis as well, I couldnt't agree more!

But seriously, the current models look less likely so. Still, maybe this mid week system has some hope, with a brief changeover possible.

Of course, the models do change, and the low could track further north, so it should be watched.

BTW, if you dont mind my asking, are you a TV met, or work somewhere else. Just curious since we live in the same town!

[ALhurricane]

Actually I am an Intern Meteorologist at the NWS.

I do think there is a chance of a brief changeover to snow for the Midsouth Wednesday night. Still some timing issues to work out, but at least there is a chance!

Glad to see somebody else from Memphis on the board!

[jkt21787]

That's great, I hope things are going well for you there. Will say you have been doing a great job lately on recent severe weather events, etc.

The models still show a slight changeover from this mid week system, but have all but lost the Christmas storm, even for the gulf coast states. We will see what happens next.

*EDIT* I just looked at the incoming 12z eta for the area and it shows a good chance of a changeover with pretty heavy amounts as the low moves into Northern Mississippi...especially in Arkansas and Missouri. What are your thoughts and do you think the GFS will follow?