Here is my discussion from my website, and remember, my discussion is geared towards the non-weather folk
A significant weather system is in the offing and will have a tremendous impact on this week’s weather, but first….
A wind chill advisory is in affect tonight for parts of the area. There is no question about it, tonight will be cold, and in fact will be the coldest night of the season since January. Low temperatures tonight will drop to 3 degrees, and with winds still breezy, windchills will fall to fifteen below zero. Most schools will not be in school on Monday, but any that are, I just remind you that with windchills that cold, skin that is exposed for over a duration of several minutes to those temperatures and windchills will result in frostbite.
NOW….. Moving on to Wednesday. It is going to be interesting, as our forecast models are all offering significant but slightly different solutions.
The main thing first though, is that someone in Indiana or Ohio is going to get a lot of snow. This storm system does mean business.
As the system develops, it will begin to track Northeast into Arkansas and Kentucky. The big difference in our forecast models at that point, is does the storm go into Western, Central or Eastern Ohio? At this point, I am going to base my forecast on a Central to Northeastern Ohio track.
Here’s what I believe will happen. On Tuesday Night, some light snow will break out across the area, but nothing too significant. The heavy precipitation will get underway on Wednesday. Temperatures across South Central Indiana are still up in the air somewhat, but at this point, I am leaning towards mostly snow for the entire area, with maybe some freezing rain mixed in at times towards far South Central and Southeastern Indiana. If the storm tracks farther East, then Western and parts of West Central Indiana will likely get far less snowfall then I am currently going to forecast, and that is a possibility, as one of our better forecast models does have a farther East solution. If the storm system travels farther Northwest, a larger and more significant area of freezing rain could affect the area, and southeast Indiana could stay all rain. But at this time, I do think the majority of the area will see mostly just snow.
Now the BIG QUESTION?!? How much snow is going to fall. Well that is a tough question to answer, and I hate to start “hyping” this storm too much, but two forecast models are forecasting over 2 inches of liquid precipitation. If temperatures are between 29-32 degrees, and there is a 1:10 ratio (1 inch of rain equals 10 inches of snow), then some parts of the area could be talking about snowfall amounts WELL over a foot. If temperatures are 24-29 degrees, then there is a 1:15 ratio, which means even more snowfall. This is going to be a longer duration event, and at this point, it looks like we will start out with a 1:10 ratio and end with a 1:20 ratio towards the later part of the storm. At this point, I am going to be conservative with amounts and say that most areas will see 6 inches, BUT this has the possibility to be a HUGE winter storm. Again, if our forecast models are taken literally, parts of the area will see over 2 feet of snowfall, which is more snow than I can ever imagine. But remember, forecast models are not meant to be taken completely literally and require analysis. At this point, I do not think anyone will see over 2 feet, but there is a good possibility that someone in the Ohio Valley will see double-digit snowfall amounts. To be completely honest with you, I haven’t even bothered to check about wind speeds, but with a system that could drop over a foot of snowfall on someone, I would bet money it will be strong enough to produce some very gusty winds.
One last thing for tonight. I noticed on the latest version of the ETA forecast model, what appears to be a favorable pattern for a second storm to develop by Christmas Day. Whether this storm does develop and if so, where it goes is yet to be determined, but please stay tuned!
Brandon Redmond
http://www.indianaweatheronline.com