Updated AFD:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
815 PM EST SAT DEC 18 2004
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE...
INTENSE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING.
STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS WILL LEAD TO AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH 09-12Z TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER, 00Z 850MB TEMPS OF -25C WILL OVERSPREAD LK MI. LK TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE 42-45F RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL LEAD TO
EXTREME INSTABILITY IN THE LOWEST 5KFT. INVERSION OFF OF BUFKIT
REMAINS 5-7KFT INTO MID MORNING SUN WHILE LATEST RUC/ETA SHOW
SFC-850MB WINDS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR BANDS TO POTENTIALLY
IMPACT AREAS A BIT FURTHER WEST INTO TIPPECANOE AND EVEN
WARREN/FOUNTAIN COUNTY EARLY SUN. WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE SNOW
AMOUNTS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES A GOOD BET SOMEWHERE IN THE
TIPPECANOE/CARROLL/CLINTON/HOWARD AREA. SNOW BAND SHOULD EASE AFTER
21Z SUN AS 850MB WINDS DECREASE. WILL ALSO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS IN
GRIDS WHICH SHOULD TAKE MOST OF THE AREA DOWN INTO THE 0 TO MINUS 5
WIND CHILL RANGE BY SUNRISE.
Areas just to the north, closer to the Lake have lake effect warnings and advisories for up to a foot, but they are now calling for 1-3" here after saying most areas would only see an inch. Some of the higher resolution mesoscale models show a vortex forming over the Lake, which is actually pretty cool. We will probably see a lake-induced surface low develop over many of the Lakes tomorrow - check out the visible loops for signs of them. Of concern also, especially near the Lakes where snow is heaviest, will be the winds, which the RUC shows being as high as 40-45 kt, so with temps in the teens or single digits, wind chills will be well below zero. It's not gonna be fun for folks traveling up I-65 to Chicago, and in fact, I'm assuming it will be shut down at a point with heavy snow right over the interstate and visibilities near zero. I'm getting excited about this if you can't tell, so in between a marathon session of watching all 3 Lord of the Rings movies tomorrow (yes, the extended versions!), I'll be on my iBook w/ wireless checking it all out! Sounds like the perfect day to be inside. I'll let y'all know how much we end up with, but I'm guessing now it'll be 2-4" here. That'll also increase the chances of us going to -10F or colder on Monday morning!!