Latest from local met!!!

[bfez1]

Well, the model flip flop continues. Last night's and this morning's run of the GFS is continuing to indicate the possibility of SNOW for the area Friday night. Leading up to this possibility will be some pretty wild weather as well.

Here's the setup: this morning we have some cold air in place with temperatures which have fallen below freezing on the northshore and into the mid-30's southshore. This cold is not going to stick around long. Our east winds this morning become southeast and eventually south by tonight as high pressure over the Ohio Valley slides southeastward. As winds go south tonight, I am expecting temperatures to actually go up after midnight. With more moisture laden air moving in over the cooler lake, widespread dense fog is possible for your Tuesday morning commute.

These south winds will lead to a huge warm-up tomorrow and Wednesday. I expect highs tomorrow to make it up to around 70 as clouds increase through the day. There is a slight chance we could see a shower or two blow in off the Gulf during the day tomorrow. By tomorrow night, as low pressure takes shape back over Texas, our southerly winds increase and rain chances increase. Then, as that low develops and moves eastward, another plunge of arctic air will begin to head south, really helping that low to crank up as it moves across north LA and central MS on Wednesday. That will drag a cold front our way Wednesday and allow rain and thunderstorms to break out ahead of the front Wednesday. There is a chance that a few of the storms could become strong to severe Wednesday, with the main threat being strong straight line winds; however, isolated tornadoes will also be possible. This low quickly gets stronger and heads NE and helps to pull down cold air.

Behind the front on Thursday, the cold starts to settle in with highs only expected in the 40's. Then things may or may not get interesting. The models today have started to show (again) moisture overunning our old front as it sits out in the Gulf. Some models have even indicated low pressure forming along that old front. At the same time, another reinforcing shot of cold air heads south. If we get enough moisture headed north with the cold air coming south, some frozen precipitation is possible. Looking at the temperature scheme the GFS model is showing, it would mostly fall as snow Friday and Friday night, even on the southshore. However, there is enough uncertainty not to include it explicitly in the forecast just yet. Thus, my official forecast or a 20% chance for light rain possibly mixed with sleet or flurries north of the lake. Now, if the model doesn't flip flop again and we are still seeing this tomorrow, and especially Wednesday, expect it to be in the forecast. For now, don't get your hopes up because 1.) there is no guarantee the moisture surging out of the Gulf will be as widespread as the models indicate or even be there and 2.) there is no guarantee the cold air will be as deep as what the models are showing. The models have certainly been too cold as of late in the extended periods and this may be no exception. In fact, I continue to go higher than the models are with extended temperatures.

With that said, even if we don't see frozen precip, we may see frozen pipes Christmas morning. Lows could, for the first time in a long time, dip below freezing in the city. It looks like a sure bet for a hard freeze on the northshore Christmas morning. If you have exposed pipes, you may want to begin to make preparations if you have not, or at least check the wraps you may have done in the past to make sure they are still intact.

I will write more on this as I have time. I'm sure David will also have his 2 cents to add later today.


John Gumm
Meteorologist
WWL-TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116

[Guest]

Cold today, Warming up tomorrow and Tuesday with storms, and possibly a few flakes for late week, you DEFINITELY have some wild weather on your way. Enjoy!

[bfez1]

70's one day and possible snow the next day.
CRAZY!!!

[Yankeegirl]

Its alomst 70 out right now, and supposed to be that way tomorrow too... I cant wait for that cold air to make its way down...

[Lindaloo]

70's one day and possible snow the next day.
CRAZY!!!

Welcome to the Deep South!! We are always full of surprises. hehehehe.