Latest AFD from NWS N.O. regarding severe potential/snow

[Huckster]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
957 AM CST MON DEC 20 2004

.UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATE IS TO THE ZONE FORECAST TO REMOVE FREEZE WARNING
HEADLINE WHICH EXPIRED AT 9 AM. MOST LOCATIONS ESCAPED A HARD FREEZE
EXCEPT SOUTHWEST MS. ONCE AGAIN...GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAD A COLD BIAS.
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME
CHANGE TO THE CHRISTMAS EVE FORECAST MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.

COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S AND OTHER GOVERNMENT/MILITARY
AGENCIES AND THE MEDIA WILL BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT TODAY CONCERNING
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY A POTENTIAL
WINTRY WEATHER SCENARIO ON FRIDAY. CURRENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
ADDRESSES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY...BUT NWS
FORECASTS FROM HERE AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES DO NOT MENTION ANY
FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. 06Z GFS PAINTS .25 TO .5 INCH OF
QPF ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
THE ENTIRE VERTICAL PROFILE BELOW FREEZING...MEANING ALL SNOW AND
THE FIRST WHITE CHRISTMAS DOWN HERE...FOR MOST...IN OVER 100 YEARS.
CURRENTLY...OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANY OR AS
MUCH OF A WAVE IN THE GULF...WITH COLD DRY AIR REMAINING ENTRENCHED
OVER THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. DID NOT GET A
CHANCE TO LOOK AT THE CANADIAN MODEL. IF THE 12Z GFS... ENSEMBLES...
AND OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW THE SAME AS THE 06Z GFS...THEN
WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER PUTTING A CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. THANKS TO NAVY BELLE CHASSE WEATHER FOR
COORDINATION. STAY TUNED.


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/cgi-bin/previous2.php?pil=LIXAFDLIXW&version=0

[PTrackerLA]

Sounds promising! Let's see what they have to say this afternoon.

[bfez1]

I can't stand it. This is so exciting!!!
I feel like a 3 yr old waiting for Santa to come!

[Huckster]

I am not great at doing comparisons between model runs, but it appears as if the latest run (12z this morning) is still showing good news for those of us hoping for snow (and believe me, I am one of those people!!!) though not as much precip as before. This is still 4 days out basically. I wouldn't be concerned over exact amounts. Lots can and will change. The incredible thing would be if any measurable/accumulating frozen precip occurs at all.

96 hrs surface
http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weatherdata/avn/avn_cpres_h96.gif
96 hrs 850 mb
http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weatherdata/avn/avn_c850_h96.gif
108 hrs surface
http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weatherdata/avn/avn_cpres_h108.gif
108 hrs 850 mb
http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weatherdata/avn/avn_c850_h108.gif

[PTrackerLA]

Well accuweather updated their forecast and they're still showing a chance of snow. High Christmas eve of 37 with snow and a low of 17 that night! I'm eagerly awaiting what the NWS offices around the area have to say this afternoon.

[southerngale]

I can't stand it. This is so exciting!!!
I feel like a 3 yr old waiting for Santa to come!

Except Santa comes every year!

[PTrackerLA]

NWS Lake Charles thinks it might be too dry but they admit that anything that falls will be SNEAUX!

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO CROSS TEXAS/LOUISIANA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF EVEN COLDER AIR TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP WITH PWS
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 0.5 INCH OR LESS. HOWEVER...AS AMAZING AS IT
MAY SEEM...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
WITH ANYTHING THAT WOULD MANAGE TO FALL THU NIGHT/FRIDAY. WILL WATCH
CLOSELY BUT CONFIDENCE WAY TOO LOW TO MENTION ANY PRECIP RIGHT NOW.

PRECIP CHANCES OR NOT...SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS DAY. A HARD FREEZE CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...
WITH FREEZING TEMPS EVEN OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 40S.