Christmas cold...U.K sytle!!!

[KWT]

i just thought I'd make a thread as we here in the U.K may well see only our 6th white Christmas for nearly 100 years.

Right it starts on thursday night where a very active cold front dives southwards across the country,this then introduces cold NW winds,and by Friday morning(chritmas eve)most of the country will be under the right conditions for snow.

Prime spots are going to be in the west this years,with orgnaised troughs moving in from the west and *maybe* even the odd polar low,due to the instablity of the airmass.

heres what metcheck think is going to happen:








For kids from 1 to 92
Added [Monday December 20 2004 : 11:30:21 AM]

A much clearer picture now developing with regards to this coming weekend and expected snowfall around the UK.

The change starts filtering through on Christmas Eve, where behind an active cold front, temperatures will begin to drop sharply and showers will start turning from rain, to sleet, to snow.

The problem with showers is that they need a source of moisture i.e the sea. On Christmas morning, many areas of Western Scotland, Wales, Northwest England, Northern Ireland will wake up to a White Christmas.

During Christmas day the same areas will continue to see further snow flurries, these will begin filtering inland, however areas to the East of the Pennines may well stay cold and dry for much of the day.

A rather new development is an upper level trough expected to run along the South coast during Sunday evening. Confidence on this is currently around 40%, however if it takes the current indicated course then the South coast and later the Southeast will see heavy snowfall on Christmas Day evening.


this cold spell may end by the 28th,however a few runs keep it going right till the 2nd of January,I'll update each day in this thread.(also there has been snow for some here today,as a front hit sub-zero tempertures,the rain turned to snow in quite a few places,mainly in the north although there may be a wintry mix when the second half of the band runs up the south coast in the next 5-6hrs.)

Hope you lot in the U.S get all the cold you want!!!

[P.K.]

We'll both get rain as we have done over the last couple of days, but everyone else will get snow.

[southerngale]

Good luck on your snow. I can't imagine anything prettier than a white Christmas.

[KWT]

hahaha!!!

Seriously though this is looking like it has potenial for a countrywide snow event,the likes that we have not seen since the great snow spell in January 1987.

everywhere is at risk as due to the fact that the NW winds are very unstable and tend to come along with troughs(or trofs as you in the U.S call them)and also a few polar lows,not to mention the possiblity of a LP system diving south down the north sea giving Gales to the east as well as heavy snow...in other words...

Blizzards are possible for the east.

[P.K.]

It is looking very good. Looking at the 6am GFS run it doesn't have the temperature getting much above freezing on Sat. So even if anyone doesn't get snow they should notice the cold.

[KWT]

well heres my update:

So firstly will there be any precip about,well yes there will be lots,these will mainly be in the form off showers,although for at least the north and west these should be rather constant on a rather cold artic North westerly wind,eslewhere the chances of snow aren't as high but even in other areas showers could and indeed should.


I think that how widespread the snow is partly depends on how penertarting those showers are(they could get right the way into the country,though they will likely be fairly weak eventually!)

Also it depends on how prolific the troughs/mini troughs are,certianly there seems like there is going to be one fairly large trough moving southwards on Chritmas/Christmas day arriving in the south sometime that day.Also the NW of the U.k should watch out for polar lows,as should the rest of the country.As for thunderstorms,well its a possiblity for the west,esp as you have cold air and warm seas,and that tends to create alot of instablity,the 500pha air should also be just cold enough for polar low formation so it could get intresting,and are most likely to form.

so most at risk are the north and west,although there is also a chance that a LP system may dive southwards down the north sea,introducing some cold NE winds for the east,which will off course give alot of snow to the east while the west are likely to stay under there showery NW airflow.

It'll start on Chritmas eve,timing isn't exact although it'll likely be before dark.A cold front associated with the LP system due to affect us tommorow will sweep down southwards,this will introduce a much colder Nw wind which will have sub 528dam line,850 temps will rapidly drop below the front and should by Friday night be cold enough for snow.One area to watch is the possiblity of on the back end of the frontal system the rain may turn to sleet or snow although this is by all means not certain.I'll add Christmas day onto the end of this tommorow.

[KWT]

short post,but the cold air is now heading southwards with the north now reporting temps of freezing.

down in the south,temps holding up very well indeed,at 10,yes 10C!!!

looking foward to tommorw when the temps start dropping and also the chance of wintry precipation,as a front pulls across from the west,at the tail end of the system there will be a chance for snow,as the colder air hits the precip,and so I'm very hopeful for tommorow night although I shouldn't get to excited as it only has a small chance of happening.