Winter storm Watches go up in IN, KY, OH, MO, IL, and AR!!!

[PurdueWx80]

Not gonna post all the watches but these areas are now under a watch, as wintry weather will likely begin within 24-36 hours - if things continue the way the models portray it today, then warnings will be up by morning (and the afternoon tomorrow at latest). Louisville is calling for 4-8" at my parents house as of now - I see more like 8-12" but the NWS idea is an excellent conservative approach for now. They will be visible on the SPC watch/warning map in a bit -

[dawgpound]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
323 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004

OHZ003-006>013-017>022-027>032-036>038-047-211100-
ASHLAND OH-CRAWFORD OH-CUYAHOGA OH-ERIE OH-GEAUGA OH-HANCOCK OH-
HOLMES OH-HURON OH-KNOX OH-LAKE OH-LORAIN OH-LUCAS OH-MARION OH-
MEDINA OH-MORROW OH-OTTAWA OH-PORTAGE OH-RICHLAND OH-SANDUSKY OH-
SENECA OH-STARK OH-SUMMIT OH-WAYNE OH-WOOD OH-WYANDOT OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AKRON...ASHLAND...BOWLING GREEN...
BUCYRUS...CANTON...CHARDON...CLEVELAND...ELYRIA...FINDLAY...
FOSTORIA...FREMONT...LORAIN...MANSFIELD...MARION...MEDINA...
MILLERSBURG...MOUNT GILEAD...MOUNT VERNON...NORWALK...PAINESVILLE...
PORT CLINTON...RAVENNA...SANDUSKY...TIFFIN...TOLEDO...
UPPER SANDUSKY AND WOOSTER
323 PM EST MON DEC 20 2004

...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WITH HEAVY SNOW AND SOME ICE POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN OHIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND BE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY.

THE LATEST DATA SHOWS THAT HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR PEOPLE LIVING
WEST OF INTERSTATE 71. ALTHOUGH EXACT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE
DETERMINED AT THIS TIME...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY FOR AREAS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 71. ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 71...SNOW WILL START
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX
OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE CHANGING
BACK TO SNOW THURSDAY MORNING.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN OHIO SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR FUTURE UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS ON THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM.

[misty]

I hope the put us in it. They say snow, then rain, then snow again, then ice, it will prob stay north of me but a girl can dream!!!!

[PurdueWx80]

Once I see the 18Z GFS and check out a few more things I'll go ahead and start my own forecast thread - but the 18Z Eta is a hair slightly further south and slower, yet QPF totals right along the Ohio river from Paducah to Louisville to Cincinnati range from 1.25-1.75". Take into account a 10:1 ratio and you get 12.5 - 17.5", yet it will be colder, especially during the second half of the event, so ratios may go as high as 20:1, meaning some areas right along the Ohio river (if the Eta verifies) would see from 18-22". This is not a forecast, it's just using simple meteorology based on the amount of liquid equivalent precip...if you also account for TROWAL effects, conditional instabilities (etc.) and a few other effects, you might assume there would be pockets of greater than 2 feet, but I think this is highly unlikely because 1) there will be deep convection in the south that may impede the transport of deep moisture northwards and 2) the Eta's moisture return looks too high as is evident in the very low dewpoints still over the Gulf states. The GFS has even higher totals (2-3" of liquid equivalent) but it appears to be suffering from major convective feedback as evident by the strength of the surface low. Enough for now, but I'll start a post in a few hours with my "official" thoughts and forecasts.

I hope the put us in it. They say snow, then rain, then snow again, then ice, it will prob stay north of me but a girl can dream!!!!

Where are you Misty? Maybe I could help out.

[misty]

I am in southwest arkansas. I would appreciate the help

[jkt21787]

Very exciting as this storm sets up, but as it looks now the worst will be well far to the north for mre. NWS Memphis will issue a watch in the north areas of arkansas tennessee and MO bootheel but say an inch at best in the city.

But we'll see if the models change but time is running out.

BTW, Misty, I think you are way too far south for wintry weather, maybe a brief period of sleet/snow, but not sure as I haven't paid close attention to that area.

[misty]

Thanks for the input, even if it wasn't good news for me, I am sure my time will come.......someday.LOl