My midwest snow weenies--this is for you...

#1 Postby **wxguy25** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 4:45 pm

First ideas on your event

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http://allwx.125mb.com/dec_23.jpg

Map w/ expected snowfall totals will be out later this evening. There will be many folks that see over a foot underneath the deformation zone as the 850h low intensifies. wraparound will be a problem also.

UVM will be strong and RH high in the -12 to -15 C layer so I see no problem getting maximized snow growth and at least 12:1 (perhaps 15:1) along the outer edges of the heavy snow band as CAA brings in the arctic air as the low winds up.

Low level frontogenesis and CSI banding may enhance localized totals. the models cant resolve CSI banding it's self, but knowing where it will likely develop can save your forecast.

jkt21787 · #2 Postby **jkt21787** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 4:47 pm

What is your basis for the heaviest snow being in Memphis. Not doubting you, just curious as the NWS is calling for an inch or less.

Thanks, BTW I would LOVE for that to happen!

#3 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 4:48 pm

Nice discussion, glad some experienced pro mets finally jumped in. By the way, the discussion on your link mentions a snow accumulation map, do you have the link for that or did you not make it yet?

#4 Postby **wxguy25** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 4:52 pm

jkt21787 wrote:What is your basis for the heaviest snow being in Memphis. Not doubting you, just curious as the NWS is calling for an inch or less.

Thanks, BTW I would LOVE for that to happen!

I know it looks as if i put memphis in area C...IT IS NOT. memphis is actually right on the border of areas B, C and D...what you actually see will be closer to much of what area D does--rain then a change to mix/snow before ending.

Thanks for asking, I didn't know there was any confusion over that. Area C includes places NORTHWEST of memphis for now.

#5 Postby **wxguy25** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 4:55 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:Nice discussion, glad some experienced pro mets finally jumped in. By the way, the discussion on your link mentions a snow accumulation map, do you have the link for that or did you not make it yet?

Didn't get it up yet. I dont like making forecasts based on the 6z and 18z runs if possible. the above map is a 12z GFS/ETA blend. Once I have a chance to review the 0z cycle I'll make the accumulations map and refine the one just posted.

There should be two forthcoming tonight between 1100 and 1130

EDIT-- Suffice to say for now that I expect a foot or more from SOuthern IN through Western OH. How far Northwest that extends and whether or not it gets into the Detroit area is a tossup right now IMO. Another reason why I want to wait for the 0z cycle.

jkt21787 · #6 Postby **jkt21787** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 4:57 pm

OK, Thanks, Still looks like a great map.

One more question, do you think the 1" or less amount the weather service is saying is too low? Was obviously hoping for more.

#7 Postby **wxguy25** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 5:02 pm

jkt21787 wrote:OK, Thanks, Still looks like a great map.

One more question, do you think the 1" or less amount the weather service is saying is too low? Was obviously hoping for more.

Ill give specific totals later tonight for memphis.

jkt21787 · #8 Postby **jkt21787** » Mon Dec 20, 2004 5:03 pm

That sounds good, I'll anxiously be waiting

My midwest snow weenies--this is for you...

My midwest snow weenies--this is for you...

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