Houston CHICKENS!!

[vbhoutex]

They almost say it, but not quite!! CHICKENS!!!!!!

Definitely playing it conservative with the setup that is coming, but probably actually pretty close on their call. I am hoping for the deep south TX Low to set up and then move out and up the coast.

BOO VIRGA!!!!

COLD AIR WILL SETTLE OVER REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MAJOR UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING OUR REGION WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT.
GFS INDICATE AMPLE ISENTROPIC LIFTING ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES
AND COASTAL WATERS. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MAY DEVELOP SURFACE TROUGH
OVER WESTERN GULF ON FRIDAY AND AS OF NOW...WE ARE UNCERTAIN HOW
CLOSE THIS WILL BE TO OUR CWFA. IF IT DEVELOPS CLOSER PRODUCING
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFTING...THEN WE MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER POSSIBILITY
OF FROZEN PRECIP SINCE COMBINATIONS OF THICKNESS FIELD VALUES INDICATE
THRESHOLD WILL BE MET FOR INLAND AREAS. GFS SOUNDINGS FOR FRIDAY WOULD
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE 850-550 MB LAYER. THIS MAY
ONLY RESULT IN VIRGA IN THE INLAND AREAS. WE SHALL WAIT FOR LATER
MODEL RUNS AND LOOK FOR MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS INTERESTING FUTURE
CAST. CHRISTMAS STILL LOOKS DRY AND COLD AS PER GFS.

[southerngale]

[Steve]

Sounds like the Channel 4 guy in New Orleans (Bernard) on this afternoon's drive-time weather tape. 30% chance of precip on Christmas Eve and 20% on Christmas Day. It's too early though for these guys to hype the potential. They did note mid-teens Christmas am on the Northshore.

TPS

[aggiecutter]

Until showtime, you never know what to expect from these types of systems. Uphere in extreme NE Texas, I'm in the same boat your are in, except this is with Wednesdays' system. According to the models, I'm sitting on the rain-snow line. A movement of the low 50 miles one way or the other will determine whether I get 3-5 inches, or a cold rain for most of the day that turns over to a light dusting in the late afternoon.

Past history with this type of setup, throwing out model runs and local forcast, tells me that Texarkana will start out as rain Tuesday night and change over to snow around or just before noon on Wednesday. We'll probably get 3-4hrs of heavy snow, 1 inch per hour, then it'll taper off to flurries before ending Wednesday night. I'll take the middle road here and guess we get 3" out of this storm.

[LAwxrgal]

The cold air is certain. Everything else is up in the air.

[Brent]

I actually think it's better to play it safe. Look at climatology... it's NEVER happened before(A White Christmas). Now, if on Wednesday other models show this snowstorm, THEN I would say they would need to call it.

[LAwxrgal]

It's just too early to call...these things can flip-flop...we saw this during cane season....