I'm on the western edge of Lake Charles' coverage area. I tend to pay attention to Lake Charles and Houston discussions. I figured you all wanted to know that. lol
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
220 PM CDT MON DEC 20 2004
.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A VARIETY OF WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE AREA THIS WEEK. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ACCOMPANIED BY LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40 KNOTS WILL
TRANSPORT INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT/TUESDAY.
EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH MIXING TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. PWS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1.1-1.2 INCHES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF INCREASING POPS BEGINNING TUESDAY.
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TUE NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS TO SPILL SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS. LIFT INCREASES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND CWA GOES INTO LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT OF SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK. WILL GO CHANCE POPS
TUESDAY EVENING...INCREASING TO LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BOTH GFS/ETA INDICATE SURFACE LOW FORMING ALONG UPPER TX COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. CAPES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH LIS
OF -2 TO -6 AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. INCREASING INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL
FAVOR A FEW STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. EXPECTING A SQUALL LINE TO FORM
WEDNESDAY ALONG TRACK OF SFC LOW WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. SPC
DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS ENTIRE AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT RISK.
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO FALLING TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP LINGERING LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO CROSS TEXAS/LOUISIANA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF EVEN COLDER AIR TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIP WITH PWS
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 0.5 INCH OR LESS. HOWEVER...AS AMAZING AS IT
MAY SEEM...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
WITH ANYTHING THAT WOULD MANAGE TO FALL THU NIGHT/FRIDAY. WILL WATCH
CLOSELY BUT CONFIDENCE WAY TOO LOW TO MENTION ANY PRECIP RIGHT NOW.
PRECIP CHANCES OR NOT...SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS DAY. A HARD FREEZE CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...
WITH FREEZING TEMPS EVEN OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 40S.
Lake Charles AFD finally mentions "possible" snow
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southerngale
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southerngale
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- Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)
And an excerpt from Houston AFD...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
320 PM CST MON DEC 20 2004
AMPLE ISENTROPIC LIFTING ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES
AND COASTAL WATERS. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MAY DEVELOP SURFACE TROUGH
OVER WESTERN GULF ON FRIDAY AND AS OF NOW...WE ARE UNCERTAIN HOW
CLOSE THIS WILL BE TO OUR CWFA. IF IT DEVELOPS CLOSER PRODUCING
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFTING...THEN WE MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER POSSIBILITY
OF FROZEN PRECIP SINCE COMBINATIONS OF THICKNESS FIELD VALUES INDICATE
THRESHOLD WILL BE MET FOR INLAND AREAS. GFS SOUNDINGS FOR FRIDAY WOULD
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE 850-550 MB LAYER. THIS MAY
ONLY RESULT IN VIRGA IN THE INLAND AREAS. WE SHALL WAIT FOR LATER
MODEL RUNS AND LOOK FOR MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS INTERESTING FUTURE
CAST. CHRISTMAS STILL LOOKS DRY AND COLD AS PER GFS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
320 PM CST MON DEC 20 2004
AMPLE ISENTROPIC LIFTING ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES
AND COASTAL WATERS. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MAY DEVELOP SURFACE TROUGH
OVER WESTERN GULF ON FRIDAY AND AS OF NOW...WE ARE UNCERTAIN HOW
CLOSE THIS WILL BE TO OUR CWFA. IF IT DEVELOPS CLOSER PRODUCING
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFTING...THEN WE MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER POSSIBILITY
OF FROZEN PRECIP SINCE COMBINATIONS OF THICKNESS FIELD VALUES INDICATE
THRESHOLD WILL BE MET FOR INLAND AREAS. GFS SOUNDINGS FOR FRIDAY WOULD
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE 850-550 MB LAYER. THIS MAY
ONLY RESULT IN VIRGA IN THE INLAND AREAS. WE SHALL WAIT FOR LATER
MODEL RUNS AND LOOK FOR MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS INTERESTING FUTURE
CAST. CHRISTMAS STILL LOOKS DRY AND COLD AS PER GFS.
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southerngale
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PTrackerLA
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- Posts: 5277
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- Location: Lafayette, LA
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southerngale
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
- Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)
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