Second Call For Ohio Valley

[IndianaWxOnline]

My second call for the Ohio Valley snowstorm is on my website, http://www.indianaweatheronline.com I did fine tune somethings, including to shift the heaviest amounts farther southeast in Indiana and southwest in Ohio.

[wx247]

I still think the models are too far SE with the heaviest snows. Otherwise, still, I think you have a great map!!!

[PurdueWx80]

I still think the models are too far SE with the heaviest snows.

Any particular reason?

[Guest]

I still think the models are too far SE with the heaviest snows.

Any particular reason?

NO HIGH PRESSURE to the north in the spot needed for that kind of track. Atleast from what the ETA is showing trackwise. Sorry but i totally disagree with the ETA on this.

[PurdueWx80]

I still think the models are too far SE with the heaviest snows.

Any particular reason?

NO HIGH PRESSURE to the north in the spot needed for that kind of track. Atleast from what the ETA is showing trackwise. Sorry but i totally disagree with the ETA on this.

I'm not sure what you mean by high pressure to the north - could you please elaborate on that? Also, I'm not sure if you're referring to the track of the snow, the upper low or the surface low, but the Eta's surface low track is very similar to the GFS on both the 12 and 18Z runs.

GFS 18Z at 60 hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060m.gif
Eta 18Z at 60 hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060m.gif

GFS at 72 hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072m.gif
Eta at 72 hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072m.gif

By 72 hours the GFS's low is just barely northwest of the Eta's, but it is a good 12mb stronger.

[wx247]

I still think the models are too far SE with the heaviest snows.

Any particular reason?

The track is just too far southeast for me to buy into it. I believe that the low is going to want to track closer to the NW... per this morning's model runs. The cold air won't be invading fast enough to keep it that far SE. Just my uneducated $.02 worth!

[Guest]

I still think the models are too far SE with the heaviest snows.

Any particular reason?

The track is just too far southeast for me to buy into it. I believe that the low is going to want to track closer to the NW... per this morning's model runs. The cold air won't be invading fast enough to keep it that far SE. Just my uneducated $.02 worth!

ETA is now further north at 36hrs .

[Miss Mary]

At this time, what is your best estimate for snowfall for the Cincinnati area? One local met explained several tracks this system could follow. We "could" get dumped on, 3-8 inches she said. But that is IF certain things are in place. Just wondered if you all think the heavy snowband will be north of Cincy?

What's odd is that if you didn't follow wx, tomorrow would trick you into thinking warmer wx is here to stay (upper 40s). Makes me appreciate living in 2004. Years ago folks would have been caught off guard completely! At least most Cincinnatians are now talking about the possibility of a major snowstorm this week.

Thanks a lot!

mary

[CINCINNATISUN]

I've heard local Mets saying 8 - 12 inches, not sure
I'm believing that just yet though.

[Guest]

Well per the latest GFS/ETA you guys get slammed down there.
6+ easily.

Enjoy it.

[PurdueWx80]

Mary - I think the further north and west you go in the Cincy area, the higher the totals will be. Some areas may see 12"+ in the far northern/northwestern "suburbs" with many areas seeing 7-10". The south side of the city (particularly the airport and other areas of northern KY) stands a higher likelihood of seeing freezing rain mixed with sleet and snow as a warm layer aloft will melt the precip before it refreezes at the colder surface. Here it may also begin as rain for a brief period w/ surface temps near the mid 30's. There, ice/snow totals will be closer to 2-4" but most of the metro area, as I see it now, looks to see 3" to perhaps 6". The other scenario, which I still see as viable although becoming less likely, is that the surface low and warm air get close enough to have mostly rain in much of the city (one of those annoying cold rains where it's 34 degrees and miserable out). The precipitation would switch over to snow at some point, but the total accumulations would be greatly reduced. I feel bad for not being able to pinpoint this exactly, but unfortunately both Louisville and Cincy will be right on the edge of heavy snow, ice and heavy rain. As I mentioned above, this will become much better resolved by tomorrow evening once all the players are on the field. There is still room for the heaviest snow to shift into the heart of the city, or it may also go back north and Cincy would see all rain. Stay tuned and be as patient as possible. One thing is still certain, Christmas will be one to remember because of the bitter temperatures!

[Miss Mary]

CSun/Steve - I've heard that too. Not sure if I'm buying it yet either. Let's just say for certain my husband isn't! We still have last minute small gifts to pick up and piddly little errands to run. I knew this week would be that way. Jim keeps saying oh it won't be bad...and get this my daughter Laura needs a good winter coat yet (she's been wearing warm hoodies/fleece jackets til now)! It's not as if she hasn't had chances to buy one...I took her on two separate outings, each time one hour each, trying on no less than 20 coats. She is so picky (my tomboy). At this point I offered her one of mine (have two, both on sale Lands' Ends coats, ugly very warm puffy one for walking the dog and sledding, the other wool pea coat, she about gagged when I offered her either one!). Tonight she has a big school project due Wed.! I said you HAVE to get a coat, any coat at this point. She has one hanging in her closet that is 2 inches too short on her wrists - I'm going to make her wear that if push comes to shove! But I'm getting off track here...a coat is on our agenda too! I wish she wasn't this picky....she keeps saying we'll be able to hit the malls on Wednesday, once school is out - yeah right!!!

Purdue - thanks for the update. One local met said your town will get slammed today - he said Lafayette in particular will receive heavy snow, count on it. I'm sure you're prepared!

Keep the updates coming....

Mary

PS - Winter Storm Watch in place for Cincinnati....from wxunderground's site:

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... =45255#WIN

.. Winter Storm Watch in effect from Wednesday morning to Thursday
afternoon...

The National Weather Service in Wilmington Ohio has issued a Winter
Storm Watch.

A winter storm system is expected to track from the lower Mississippi
Valley northeast into the upper Ohio Valley by Thursday morning.

The current expected track of this storm system suggests that heavy
snow will be possible Wednesday into Thursday. A wintry mix will be
possible... mainly along and southeast of I-71... for a period on
Wednesday before changing over to all snow.

The potential exists for snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches in the
watch area. The exact amount of snow and ice depends on the track and
strength of the storm system. A stronger storm or a track farther
west could bring warmer air to the area and more mixed
precipitation... resulting in less snow. A weaker system or a track
farther east cold also bring less snow.

A Winter Storm Watch is issued when severe winter weather is
possible, but not imminent. Stay tuned to NOAA weather all hazards
radio and other media outlets for further details or updates.

[michaelwmoss]

SE Indiana with the highest amounts, near a foot in the rural areas