New Orleanians read this!!!

[bfez1]

000
FXUS64 KLIX 202230
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
415 AM CST MON DEC 20 2004

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE OF WINTRY TYPE WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
ALSO...FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE...POSSIBLY TEENS NORTH
OF I-10 AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS QUICKLY SHIFTED EAST TODAY TO THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC COAST. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S TODAY AFTER A COLD START. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO CONTINUE RECOVERING TONIGHT...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW THE MAV GUIDANCE. ON
TUESDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE
CONUS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MARGINAL/SLIGHT INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH DECENT SHEAR...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN MIXED WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THEN WILL GO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WITH
POPS ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END IN MOST LOCATIONS
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENTS/PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT THE BASIC PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT
SUPPORTIVE OF A WINTER PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY INCLUDING MEASURABLE
SNOW OR SLEET FRIDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS SHOWED A
CHANCE MAINLY NEAR COASTAL SECTIONS...THEN THE 06Z AND 12Z RUNS
SHOWED A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE OR WEAK LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN
GULF AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. HPC HAS GONE ALONG
WITH THE LATTER RUNS OF THE GFS. THIS MEANS FAIRLY HIGH POPS WITH
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...OR MOSTLY SNOW. GFS
SOUNDINGS FROM 06Z AND 12Z ARE WELL BELOW FREEZING IN THE ENTIRE
COLUMN...EVEN JUST SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS...MOST OF FRIDAY. AFTER MUCH
COORDINATION...HAVE DECIDED TO GREATLY DOWNPLAY THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS
RUNS AND GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ALONG THE MSY-GPT
CORRIDOR AND A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP NEAR THE SOUTHEAST LA COAST.
IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS...THEN SNOW
CHANCES MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED. ALTHOUGH A WHITE CHRISTMAS HAS NOT
EVER OCCURRED IN NEW ORLEANS...AT LEAST SINCE RECORD KEEPING BEGIN
IN 1852...A WHITE CHRISTMAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS YEAR. A TRACE
OF SNOW WAS RECORDED IN NEW ORLEANS IN 1954...BUT IT CAN BE ASSUMED
THE SNOW MELTED AS IT FELL.

ONCE AGAIN...FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT THUS FAR THIS
SEASON WITH TEENS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-10/LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
ALONG THE MS COAST WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. DRY AND COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

[sunny]

I'm shivering already!!

[Scorpion]

Hopefully the cold air is coming down here! We're begging for 30's!!!

[gboudx]

White Christmas in New Orleans? Saints fans, time to go ahead and buy those Super Bowl tickets.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well, I'll be....hey, the Saints just have to win their last two games and they're in the playoffs. Could this JUST be THE year??? Come on weather folk...it just may be...Let it snow!

[LAwxrgal]

Christmas and snow go together like red beans and rice.

C'mon, let it sneaux, let it sneaux, let it sneaux!